January 2019 Discussion

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro only goes out to 90 hours but it does look like it would be less amped than 00z looking at the PV toggling the two maps. 

Regardless. As Scooter said, everything still on the table. Hopefully people remember that...this event is still on the edges of clown range. We could see almost all rain from this still. Or it could be even a whiff to the south. 

The one constant in the “it could still rain/whiff” recognition is to also remind ourselves that being in the bullseye 7 days can be the kiss of death.  So enjoy the clown maps and hope for the best as they refresh every 6 hours.

[weathafella]

These snow maps are really like an opiate.   You get addicted quickly.   I’m finding myself looking at them first now....against all reasonable better judgment...

[Damage In Tolland]

So what’s the Friday deal? 1-3” appetizer before the big dog?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HM posted on twitter yesterday that he thought a Midwest storm might occur around the 25th.  I’m not sure if his reasoning had anything to do with the MJO though 

this sounds like what happened in 1978, there was a cutter in there (the triple phaser?) sandwiched between the two blizzards I think.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

this sounds like what happened in 1978, there was a cutter in there (the triple phaser?) sandwiched between the two blizzards I think.

 

That was the Cleveland super bomb. Its an interesting analogy. The days before the Jan blizzard here it was supposed to be a rain storm

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So what’s the Friday deal? 1-3” appetizer before the big dog?

Second try no bite

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That was the Cleveland super bomb. Its an interesting analogy. The days before the Jan blizzard here it was supposed to be a rain storm

I was just thinking that, Steve!  It would be crazy if a snow changing to rain scenario was predicted and instead we all ended up with a blizzard that never changed over.  1978 to 2019 41 years apart, same mistake made by the models lol.

 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So what’s the Friday deal? 1-3” appetizer before the big dog?

Even this one could go many ways. Some depictions are a weak piece of crap with flurries and others give us 3-5". But 1-3" is a good middle ground for now understanding that this one is still 4 days out...nevermind the bigger storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

For all the variance amongst the OP runs, the ensemble means are all pretty close. Even the ridiculous GGEM OP solution produced a storm that looks pretty similar to GEFS and EPS on its own ensembles. Maybe they are a bit more amped but they still keep the storm offshore south of SNE and then outside of ACK. 

The ensemble means really haven't moved that much at all in days given the lead time. That said, you don't want to get fooled into overconfidence because the spread in the individual members remains high. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even this one could go many ways. Some depictions are a weak piece of crap with flurries and others give us 3-5". But 1-3" is a good middle ground for now understanding that this one is still 4 days out...nevermind the bigger storm. 

Does the bigger the Friday deal become.. the more colder Sunday is?

[Chrisrotary12]

EPS Mean continues to look great for Sunday. But there's still a decent sized cluster (1/3 maybe) of members that track the weak LP over our heads and leave us on the wrong side of the gradient. ECMWF Op taken verbatim is a serious thump (~12") of snow followed by an impressive period of  ice/sleet as all of SNE except for Adams, MA cooks at 850.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does the bigger the Friday deal become.. the more colder Sunday is?

It would help push the baroclinic zone a little further south...so prob at least some positive impact the larger it is...but the bigger impact seems to be how the PV to the north is orientated and how it interacts with the main shortwave. 

[512high]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

EPS Mean continues to look great for Sunday. But there's still a decent sized cluster (1/3 maybe) of members that track the weak LP over our heads and leave us on the wrong side of the gradient. ECMWF Op taken verbatim is a serious thump (~12") of snow followed by an impressive period of  ice/sleet as all of SNE except for Adams, MA cooks at 850.

Chris, if we got say a "wide spread" Friday of 2-4", does that do anything for the larger event sunday? Meaning push it south or north?

[512high]

I think ORH just answered what I was looking for

[Typhoon Tip]

Of all guidance from 00z ... operational GFS is best fit for all fields/modes/indicators blended... for now.

I like the S/W passage nearer term ... Friday... I still believe that feature has a transitive ..if subtle, important impact/establishing lower tropospheric inhibition for later in the weekend. 

Otherwise, I see more N/stream partial attempts to phase among the Euro and GGEM... that I don't necessarily agree with.  GGEM happens to idiosyncratically end up more NW but both are relying on a slight infusion of N/stream mechanics between 100 and 90W, which is what appears to account for that blend's left position nearing 80W ..

The fast nature of the flow/compression, still endemic in all models/ensemble means therein and per trend ..., would not lend to correctly handling the delicate timing requirements for phasing - certainly then pussy-footing around with partial tea-spoons of sugar and cooking temperatures gets a bit pricey to believe the models will be correct with those intermingling aspects.  If it comes in more full bore, than a fuller phase that is fast moving bomb might actually work for better for deterministic confidence but until I see that.. .Heh. Outside of some exceptionally well-handled stream interaction/crucial timing of entities from the Dateline all the way around the 40th band to Chicago, prior to any such interaction, requires a skill not yet met with any model including the superior Euro this far in advance.  So meh... not overly impressed with this cycle across the board. 

Thing is...it's not a free pass for the GFS ...just because it "looks" like a better fit with surface features ... It too has a small amount of N/stream infusion going on out around 90W ...but because of the model's native ever so subtle progressivity bias (which is noted by NCEP publications) ... it lends to a pancaked solution that more happens to end up enough east.  

The bottom line is... I'd like to see the flow construct overall wend its way toward a more relaxed appeal/less compression ... before accepting cutesy phasing quanta for this time range when considering the fast flow regimes. Just balancing native model performance and/or in blend from D6+ ... doesn't lend confidence. Phasing is a delicate operation, and we don't typically see it take place in velocity saturated evolutions, much less... getting the models to be correct this far out makes the whole tapestry there a bit stressed to the intellect.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For all the variance amongst the OP runs, the ensemble means are all pretty close. Even the ridiculous GGEM OP solution produced a storm that looks pretty similar to GEFS and EPS on its own ensembles. Maybe they are a bit more amped but they still keep the storm offshore south of SNE and then outside of ACK. 

The ensemble means really haven't moved that much at all in days given the lead time. That said, you don't want to get fooled into overconfidence because the spread in the individual members remains high. 

Too bad we can’t lock the mean. The PV orientation has looked a bit more sw/ne to the graident so I’m leaning towards an interior hit for now. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS (goes out to 144) looks similar to the 00z OP euro.

[512high]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Of all guidance from 00z ... operational GFS is best fit for all fields/modes/indicators blended... for now.

I like the S/W passage nearer term ... Friday... I still believe that feature has a transitive ..if subtle, important impact/establishing lower tropospheric inhibition for later in the weekend. 

Otherwise, I see more N/stream partial attempts to phase among the Euro and GGEM... that I don't necessarily agree with.  GGEM happens to idiosyncratically end up more NW but both are relying on a slight infusion of N/stream mechanics between 100 and 90W, which is what appears to account for that blend's left position nearing 80W ..

The fast nature of the flow/compression, still endemic in all models/ensemble means therein and per trend ..., would not lend to correctly handling the delicate timing requirements for phasing - certainly then pussy-footing around with partial tea-spoons of sugar and cooking temperatures gets a bit pricey to believe the models will be correct with those intermingling aspects.  If it comes in more full bore, than a fuller phase that is fast moving bomb might actually work for better for deterministic confidence but until I see that.. .Heh. Outside of some exceptionally well-handled stream interaction/crucial timing of entities from the Dateline all the way around the 40th band to Chicago, prior to any such interaction, requires a skill not yet met with any model including the superior Euro this far in advance.  So meh... not overly impressed with this cycle across the board. 

Thing is...it's not a free pass for the GFS ...just because it "looks" like a better fit with surface features ... It too has a small amount of N/stream infusion going on out around 90W ...but because of the model's native ever so subtle progressivity bias (which is noted by NCEP publications) ... it lends to a pancaked solution that more happens to end up enough east.  

The bottom line is... I'd like to see the flow construct overall wend its way toward a more relaxed appeal/less compression ... before accepting cutesy phasing quanta for this time range when considering the fast flow regimes. Just balancing native model performance and/or in blend from D6+ ... doesn't lend confidence. Phasing is a delicate operation, and we don't typically see it take place in velocity saturated evolutions, much less... getting the models to be correct this far out makes the whole tapestry there a bit stressed to the intellect.  

 

so in a nut shell many more runs to go, or emotional highs and lows for days!

[Chrisrotary12]

11 minutes ago, 512high said:

Chris, if we got say a "wide spread" Friday of 2-4", does that do anything for the larger event sunday? Meaning push it south or north?

 

10 minutes ago, 512high said:

I think ORH just answered what I was looking for

Yup. Will's all over it.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too bad we can’t lock the mean. The PV orientation has looked a bit more sw/ne to the graident so I’m leaning towards an interior hit for now. 

Yeah the more elongated the PV gets from SW to NE, the further west this will go..a flatter solution will require the PV remaining less elongated. Either that or the shortwave energy in the central US being much weaker, but I wouldn't count on that as the system looks pretty potent. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

By the time this one is done being tracked it will feel like its been a month long.

Already feels like it is since it's coinciding with actual winter weather here

[EastonSN+]

I hope that 1 rogue negative PNA member is not right.

[EastonSN+]

Like the NAO.

[EastonSN+]

Very nice.

 

[EastonSN+]

Now for the evil hampster wheel weather word of the year everyone sick of MJO that stole winter and now allowing SE ridge to hurt our weekend snow chances:

 

Those members that look like they are going into COD then aiming back to 4 BETTER NOT HAPPEN. Otherwise the POS FV3 Sh*t show scenario might happen.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Now for the evil hampster wheel weather word of the year everyone sick of MJO that stole winter and now allowing SE ridge to hurt our weekend snow chances:

 

Post away bro

let people cry 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope that 1 rogue negative PNA member is not right.

FearstonSN+.....put down the charts, get yourself a paper bag, and breathe.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

How does The famed 10-15 day period look

the question the entire time to me was not skepticism the awful period would end, its that a flip would stick. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How does The famed 10-15 day period look

the question the entire time to me was not skepticism the awful period would end, its that a flip would stick. 

 

There's no sign of it breaking. Actually looks like the NAO is trying to get going which would match what the weeklies said last week.