weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. It took me about 10 minutes of comparison of 0z and 12z looking at nhem images but yeah I see it. Hopefully this settles some of the weenies down especially with the good snows eps spits out over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It took me about 10 minutes of comparison of 0z and 12z looking at nhem images but yeah I see it. Hopefully this settles some of the weenies down especially with the good snows eps spits out over the next 2 weeks. Yeah not to be lost in the chatter about N PAC takin its time is that the models are trying to keep New England in their own cold little world with multiple snow threats. Maybe they work out or maybe they don't but that run shows how you could get some events in a fairly meh pattern...but climo is starting to help and the split flow at times is producing some systems that try to run into cold domes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I know there's a lot of noise and speculation of what's causing this and what's causing that but for me this crappy pattern: MJO first the past 3 weeks. Thankfully progression now looks for real. We don't have to necessarily get two phases 8 1 and 2... that would be wonderful but even the COD would break this pattern & get the PAC more favorable which is THE must. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It took me about 10 minutes of comparison of 0z and 12z looking at nhem images but yeah I see it. Hopefully this settles some of the weenies down especially with the good snows eps spits out over the next 2 weeks. Yes should it materialize The weenies will be dripping in endorphins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah not to be lost in the chatter about N PAC takin its time is that the models are trying to keep New England in their own cold little world with multiple snow threats. Maybe they work out or maybe they don't but that run shows how you could get some events in a fairly meh pattern...but climo is starting to help and the split flow at times is producing some systems that try to run into cold domes. I asked Ray about this a few days ago. It's one way to "produce" if timing is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I asked Ray about this a few days ago. It's one way to "produce" if timing is right. Yeah. It's not this big time classic split flow where we see a block in Hudson Bay, but it disconnects enough at times to give us a system underneath some northern stream confluence. The northern stream also makes an appearance too for additional threats...likely clipper/redevelopers but still better than the status quo for winter enthusiasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: I have a 2 bedroom apt... Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run. Wreckhouse wind warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Wreckhouse wind warnings? If that's what you're into, sure lol. Or are you asking me what that means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: If that's what you're into, sure lol. Or are you asking me what that means? Is there a specific definition? And do you work for Environment Canada?...I am wondering if you are a hoister of wreckhouse wind warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Is there a specific definition? And do you work for Environment Canada?...I am wondering if you are a hoister of wreckhouse wind warnings. I hoist internally. I don't work for EC, our company has a lot of contracts with provincial and municiple DOTs, oil companies, etc. Wreckhouse is a specific region in Newfoundland where they have really intense downslope winds (like Foehn or Chinooks). They can reach over 100 knots in certain situations because of the favorable topography there. Les Suetes are the name of the same phenomenon that occurs in Inverness, Nova Scotia downwind of the Cape Breton Highlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 hours ago, dendrite said: 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: “Those lines are uneven. Get off my lawn hater!” -DJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Isotherm "The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing modelling detect the not insignificant 50/50 tropospheric vortex lobe near Newfoundland in the medium range is courtesy of stratospheric modulation. The split vortex can be seen, reflected through z70/z50. This projects upon the 500mb layer quite well, and aids adjunctively in driving the -NAO signal post January 4th [this may reflect favorably on the 8th-10th, but I will say no more right now]. NAM diminution maintains for post January 5th, with tropospheric effects in the mid-latitudes quite rapid in the second week, coupled with amelioration in chi z200 divergence. ECMWF changes were quite positive today and expected. The long-term reversion depicted is still apocryphal and will continue to adjust. Again, not going to say anything more sensible weather wise, but the idea that most of January is "lost" will be wrong - I believe that quite strongly and confidently." 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The Jan 11-12th area has been a good time for us last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Get rid of low heights in AK and start funneling sw’s down the ridge. We don’t need magical disruptions on the moon to get us back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Get rid of low heights in AK and start funneling sw’s down the ridge. We don’t need magical disruptions on the moon to get us back on track. Has there been a lil piggy over in AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: The Jan 11-12th area has been a good time for us last few years. Last year was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has there been a lil piggy over in AK Not a true vortex but its been troughy out there past several weeks. Too bad the earthquake didn’t pop heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not a true vortex but its been troughy out there past several weeks. Too bad the earthquake didn’t pop heights. All of those damn earth fissures let the air sink in to lower heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 GEFS continue to go hog wild in 11-15. I'd gladly take a 60/40 or even 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS even....that would still be plenty good enough for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: All of those damn earth fissures let the air sink in to lower heights. Alaskan crack kills....NewEng winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Wow. GEFS gone wild. Hot dam I would take 70/30 compromise from euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Wow. GEFS gone wild. Hot dam I would take 70/30 compromise from euro. 2 storm threats on the GFS and more will appear when the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 54 minutes ago, dendrite said: Last year was awesome. I guess I dont have Wills memory. I do remember a couple good storms around that time. The bomb that dropped 20 inches while we slept was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 It’s one or the other imho. No blend this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2 storm threats on the GFS We'll have to look up how many times you've said a given model has two storm threats since Thanksgiving. Just busting your balls but I feel like every day for over a month you see two storm threats coming up. Eventually it will happen though, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We'll have to look up how many times you've said a given model has two storm threats since Thanksgiving. Just busting your balls but I feel like every day for over a month you see two storm threats coming up. Eventually it will happen though, lol. Well, the GFS does have a couple of possible threats...whether they bear fruit, who knows? I kinda doubt anything happens as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We'll have to look up how many times you've said a given model has two storm threats since Thanksgiving. Just busting your balls but I feel like every day for over a month you see two storm threats coming up. Eventually it will happen though, lol. Threats lurk around every dark corner of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I guess I dont have Wills memory. I do remember a couple good storms around that time. The bomb that dropped 20 inches while we slept was one. 1/12/11 was the big one that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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