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January 2019 Discussion


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Is that wrong though ... using straight GEFs?

The warming intrusion has verified... I don't speak for EPS but I know the GEFs ferreted that out a long while before it happened, stuck with it through verification.

I guess we can now count on the EPS and forget giving credit where credit is due?  

My experience in the past with these spliting pv events is that they are not well handled and can lead/precipitated rather abrupt whole-scale pattern changes ... really quick analogous to crossing a threshold ... It may in fact be when the plume begins interacting with tropopause just as a guess... In any case, it's even possible the split is underdone.  We don't know... I don't think - correct me if I'm wrong - that the EPS is masterful and handling this sort total evolution either.  

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that wrong though ... using straight GEFs?

The warming intrusion has verified... I don't speak for EPS but I know the GEFs ferreted that out a long while before it happened, stuck with it through verification.

I guess we can now count on the EPS and forget giving credit where credit is due?  

My experience in the past with these spliting pv events is that they are not well handled and can lead/precipitated rather abrupt whole-scale pattern changes ... really quick analogous to crossing a threshold ... It may in fact be when the plume begins interacting with tropopause just as a guess... In any case, it's even possible the split is underdone.  We don't know... I don't think - correct me if I'm wrong - that the EPS is masterful and handling this sort total evolution either.  

Both the EPS and GEFS had the strat warming event. The question now is downwelling into the troposphere, that isn't well agreed upon. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I will go with the guidance that is usually correct and has performed better than the GEFS.  Also it’s been the pattern of models rushing change.  Maybe it corrects, but yeesh. 

Hopefully it is just rushing the change, not delaying until May. At some point we’re going to need to see a good look move in closer 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol....yeah that was a hideous EPS run....but watch it flip awesome next run.

It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. 

Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic.

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54 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Both the EPS and GEFS had the strat warming event. The question now is downwelling into the troposphere, that isn't well agreed upon. 

Yup...I get that impression vicariously.. heh.

But even in the GEFs based products it's only partially illustrated - that may be all that is needed.  I don't know but the PV signature has been vacillating between a three-nodal split and a two from what I've been observing fwiw

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Weeklies?

As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after.  Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows.  I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late.  If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in.  

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after.  Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows.  I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late.  If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in.  

14-15 did well. Even Feb 2016 gave us a run. You’re better off to get a favorable flip in niño.

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5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Wasn't 95-96 and 2014-2015 both good after the flip?

95-96 was just a transient flip to bad.  My concern is that this could be the inverse and might be a transient good flip.  96-97 and 99-00 also both had transient good flips around mid January.   Of course both of those were totally different ENSO states than this.  There does seem to be a tendency though for winters where we are being destroyed by the east pacific Alaska low for there to be a relaxing of the GOA low in mid January and then in February you go right back into it

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This 6 week stretch has been like living in that bad stretch of Jan 96. Just rainer after rainer. That’s the only comparison but it’s an awful one.

Watch this clipper energy passing by day 3-4, the clipper transfers energy into a coastal, the 21z SREFs are closer to the coast this run.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after.  Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows.  I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late.  If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in.  

The way the winters have been going since 2010 I don't think a flip, even as late as say Jan 20th to 25 th is really late. We will see though. 

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