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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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31 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. 

 

Check this error.

 

3D3C7759-BA76-4FAA-9501-58C3F469DA15.gif.a0035b736f7a8e87826d5bb954b43a42.gif

Great post. I know a Met on the other board reacted to your post by saying

Great post. IMO if the warm nose is more prominent than expected by NWS, myself, Euro, FV3, GFS, HRRR it's just blind luck. The model has displayed zero skill with this system since it's genesis in TX/OK.
 
 

 

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This morning the NWS moved my county (Halifax) into the WSW area. I'm right on the edge of the piedmont, nothing but coastal plain to my east, so of course I expect a mix with sleet and rain. that initial hit though looks substantial. 

We have our slp just west of New Orleans this morning, here we go! Good luck everyone!

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Brad Panovich posted a video about 40 minutes ago.  Still concerned about ice accretion Sun/Mon.

https://www.facebook.com/wxbradCLT/videos/281374155915525/

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The upper level low is really a non-factor for our snow chances, in my opinion. It's all coming down to how the models resolve the 700mb low as it approaches and passes through the SE. The NAMs/RGEM have a pronounced warming at this level, whereas the RAP/HRRR are, for the time being, limiting the amount of warming over NC. Who will win? Only time will tell. 

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6 minutes ago, msuwx said:

12z NAM in BUFKIT is much less pronounced with the warm nose for KHKY that it was on the 6z run.... FWIW. 

Seems the NAM is going back and forth with the warm nose while the other models have held steady or even improved this morning.

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7 minutes ago, Solak said:

Forecast amounts have lowered here.

Point forecast was 2-4", now 1-2".

Zone forecast was 1-3", now"'around an inch".

They cut it down across the board. Sunday I was at 5-9" and now its 3-5. Then Sunday night have now have 1-2" of sleet. 

Edit: this might be because of reduced qpf

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My official Wake county forecast:  Extreme southern wake near JoCo/Harnett = 0-1" of snow and minor glazing.     Central Wake = 1-2 inches of snow - minor glazing.  Northern Wake = 3-5 inches, minor glazing.

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It seems to me the only way to forecast this storm is to start with QPF and move backward. So, if you are projecting, say, 2 inches is liquid and you are projecting 2 inches of snow, you’ve still got 1.8 of QPF to spend. 

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Actually...looking at the RGEM charts, it is blow torching at 850 by 12Z tomorrow. This is way warmer at this level than any other guidance and makes me a bit suspicious. 

850th.us_ma.png

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I would just say the NAM historically has done a good job with 700-800 mb warm noses and the RAP/HRRR are dangerous to use in their longer ranges.  I would also say that, in my experience at least, we often deal with the ~750 mb warm nose before the 850 mb level warms above freezing.  But, of course, you never know what’s going to happen.  It always seems like warm noses overperform as opposed to underperform, though. :(

Anyways, I am getting prepapred for the rain storm down here. :( Good luck everyone! :) Looks like a big winter storm for many, even if a lot of it becomes IP/ZR (more likely IP with a 750 mb warm nose since there’s a lot of air under that to refreeze the droplets before hitting the ground).

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Just now, CaryWx said:

How does that square with what Jon Wall tweeted about 9" amounts for RDU on next update?

Man I don't know. 

Does anybody know what model the NWS uses for their grid output? You can tell they're using one with the two hour flips between p-types. 

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a note on the 3km and 12km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. 

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I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here. 

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Looking at the 12z GFS. The crazy/fantasy snow map has >10" in Wake County before the change over occurs. Even if that's half that value, we could still see some nice (actual 5-10) amounts through out the county. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

a note on the 3km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. 

Lookout how do you see zr chances for our area? Northeast ga 

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30 minutes ago, griteater said:

Upper level divergence on the GFS....this is what the big ones look like

hWedhdc.png

Looking back on the Jan 2018 storm thread you posted something similar.. hopefully an auspicious sign

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The GFS is not only isothermal IMBY but safely so. I really am skeptical to trust it’s thermals but it’s had support from the HRRR/RAP/Euro/ICON so who knows 

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

a note on the 3km and 12km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. 

Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40.

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1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. 

I live in Lewisville TX now which is 20 mins North from downtown Dallas and it raining steadily here.  

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For thise in ne Ga / SC waiting on cad. Dewpoint is 22 in Danville , 25 Greensboro,24 Asheboro,25 Lexington. Noticing a very small breeze now. HP is centered over OHIO, need it to get into PA, but its influensce,subtle at the moment is starting to be felt

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Yea breeze is picking up a bit in Danville. I like the spot we are in with the northern trends. Big frosty jackpot again?

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy! 

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