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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

The high in the plains/NE, has been consistently getting stronger on most modeling the last few runs!? Was around 1035/6 and now 1039/40!

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast.  I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch.  Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still.  What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence?  

Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way...

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast.  I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch.  Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still.  What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence?  

Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way...

Thank you, yeah burrel mentioned it....the last few runs of the Euro (and EPS) have been increasing the strength of a shortwave that drops into the Great Lakes just ahead of our storm wave....we want that to be fairly strong and drop in so that the heights along the east coast don't have a chance to lift north.  I would assume the better shortwave trends thru the Great Lakes is stemming from increased ridging in W Canada, but I haven't looked

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EPS as well as the control increase once again..... the control run was crazy. 

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EPS Mean compare from 06z to 12z....at 500mb it had the same slight changes as the op run (good changes for upstate into central NC).  It has the northern stream phasing in late a bit.  Sfc low track is similar but a little closer to the coast off the Carolinas.  Initially it was a little warmer thru Bama into TN and colder in the Carolinas (more damming), but it was a little warmer in eastern and central NC as the low went off the Carolina coast.

This is a textbook look at 500mb for snow in upstate into central NC (and to the NW) when the wave is in central Texas in this kind of setup

H7oJJKM.png

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume)

iMJW2n8.png

Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked!

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4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked!

Yep prepare for the worst (or best!) there now and see where it goes

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It's strange to me to see these northern midlands (SC) totals modeled, when the 3-hour loop of the model does not show a snow/sleet line reaching down this far.  

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I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

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The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load.  Here's the Kuchera output through 144.  Umm...

Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen.

image.thumb.png.d52cea79ac6166c3879824c9988d4a66.png

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Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

Control run did show around 10" for Wake.  The EPS Mean was a lot lower.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

Euro control run.  It basically has 10+ totals over Wake.  More west.  Regular Euro kills us with WAA.

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load.  Here's the Kuchera output through 144.  Umm...

Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen.

image.thumb.png.d52cea79ac6166c3879824c9988d4a66.png

It's track is faster/farther west than the others..hence the difference. 

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FWIW: The NAVGEM looks a lot like the EURO. SLP track across the FL Panhandle before making the turn NE and off the Carolina coast. Like the EURO, precip doesn't make it to NC until Sunday morning. 

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1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Models aren't just depicting a HECS for Carolinas/Virginia; this is bordering on a BECS!

Eh. Biblical would have to crush more people including 95 from DC to Portland

Historic regional blockbuster sure, biblical not IMO.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

This is a rare event for the south.

Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ?

No one can prepare for 2' except local municipalities off the lakes lol.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

This is a rare event for the south.

Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ?

yep, i have my umbrella ready for the rain and a streetlight ready to squint into looking for the stray snowflake that mixes in.

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