frd Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If the FV3 is handling the Northern lattitudes better its solution could indeed be correct over the Euro. Not sure how well versus the Euro vs the American model + upgrade verifies , with the Northern Jet . I use to hear better than the Euro at times in this area. Also, is the question of a data void as the disturbance is North of Alaska currently. ( see below ) good point below about GOES and polar orbiters. Also worth to note this as well from Jack More So where is this disturbance now? It's north of Alaska in a data void. Usually it's the lack of upper air data that gets blamed for bad "sampling" but I'd argue it's probably more a lack of satellite data. Polar orbiters are great, but don't sample as frequently as GOES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I just want this 2 feet and don’t want Richmond to get it why can’t the euro agree with fv3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So, FV3 just as bad as the operational? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Warm Nose said: So, FV3 just as bad as the operational? It was discussed some pages back... its somewhat better than the old GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: i like the FV3 way...less complicated. Just get the NS out of the way and let us have our wet 2-3 feet 16 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Which "good" option (other then the crap stuck in the middle version) is most viable? I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way. The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way. The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. Go big or go home... I would take either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Go big or go home... I would take either either big or home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way. The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. This event is behaving like the vast majority of the larger storms that affect the east coast. D5 and very difficult to get a handle on the track once it leaves the deep south. Leaves us guessing and frustrated. Can't think of many that don't do this. We're still a full 4 days away from the storm being in the deep south. Models agree that it's a pretty vigorous shortwave/slp as it crosses the southern tier. Storms like that will try their hardest to gain latitude so that's good. If it was a weak shortwave then I would already be on board with a southern solution. Strong southern sliders certainly do happen but the typical adjustment as we cross from the med to short range is north. That happens quite a bit more often than the other way around. Another day has gone by and I don't think the picture is any clearer than it was a few days ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Time for me to fess up. I ruined a good relationship by letting politics and some other issues interfere with our love for weather. I hope you have seen since my reinstatement that I am different i will Never forget 2/07 and other experiences. I was foolish to let other issues overwhelm great things like that. Same thing for Mat*, I stepped on that good relationship also. Well bud, I never gave up on you. So this is good to hear/see. Matt will be here when the good stuff is on our doorstep! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Matt will be here when the good stuff is on our doorstep! Damn, I'm going to miss Matt this year. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Damn, I'm going to miss Matt this year. That’s not true. The good stuff might be on the doorstep, but DC might be that old shut in that doesn’t answer the door to let them in. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I lived in the triangle in NC for over a decade. EVERY time snow maps were showing heavy snows in NC, you end up with rain or sleet. Jan. 2016 I was in Greensboro. 5 inches of sleet from a forecast that called for a foot of snow. It takes abnormally cold temps and a true southern slider ( there were 2 last year). I am not a meteorologist, so I can only speak from experience but this setup looks like a classic MA snowstorm that teases NC with digital snow, only to watch DC get blasted as you get pelted with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Another day has gone by and I don't think the picture is any clearer than it was a few days ago. Was just about to post something to this effect. I don’t think the 12z made things any clearer. Every thing basically held, which still leaves us in limbo where climo, history, and analogs suggest we should get into the northern piece of this at least, but no NWP consensus on that. Certainly western NC and VA look golden. Models today are just more scattershot where small differences in shortwave placement and strength are the difference between us smoking citrus and shoveling. Still think we have at least 24 more hours of this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 40 minutes ago, Ji said: you will never be you till you switch to weather53 Ten man Johnson came Not from any idea about having the Johnson of 10 men but rather the old Tennessee Man that vexed WxRski for a while. I wanted to come back anonymously back then . going back to Weather 53 would be good and if admins want to change it then let’s do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z EPS through 126 look much better than 0Z and are definitely leaning towards option 2. Closed H5 contour over western KY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Tenman Johnson said: Ten man Johnson came Not from any idea about having the Johnson of 10 men but rather the old Tennessee Man that vexed WxRski for a while. I wanted to come back anonymously back then . going back to Weather 53 would be good and if admins want to change it then let’s do it I'm pretty sure you can change your own username in the user settings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @Bob Chill @WxUSAF on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looking at 138 on the EPS and we are seeing improvements with the confluence as well the trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm pretty sure you can change your own username in the user settings! Are you still in same place as our obs were often compatible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At 150 and we are seeing a marked improvement from the 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Y'all still accept deck pics from peoples South of Fredricksburg? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: Y'all still accept deck pics from peoples South of Fredricksburg? just make sure they are deck pics 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well bud, I never gave up on you. So this is good to hear/see. Matt will be here when the good stuff is on our doorstep! We should reunion at Old Ebbits during raw bar happy hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was just about to post something to this effect. I don’t think the 12z made things any clearer. Every thing basically held, which still leaves us in limbo where climo, history, and analogs suggest we should get into the northern piece of this at least, but no NWP consensus on that. Certainly western NC and VA look golden. Models today are just more scattershot where small differences in shortwave placement and strength are the difference between us smoking citrus and shoveling. Still think we have at least 24 more hours of this too. IMO holding the line/minor vacillation is a good thing. If we would be seeing notable shifts this early, it could end up with Albany in the jackpot (if the NS vort gives way too soon). We've done this enough to know that tomorrow and Thursday is when notable shifts show up (if they are going to). Big unknown is that the Fv3 is showing good continuity between runs, so that might throw a wrench into things, but no reason to jump...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Y'all still accept deck pics from peoples South of Fredricksburg? I declare!!! Oh...deck oops 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 to 1 1/2" increase through the DC/Balt region on the EPS snow mean. 3 1/2 in DC. 2 1/2 in Balt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 There's not really much consensus at all for our area on the EPS. Seem to be equally divided between southern whiffs, northern fringe, and lambastings. I'll hug E13 for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 1 to 1 1/2" increase through the DC/Balt region on the EPS snow mean. 3 1/2 in DC. 2 1/2 in Balt. Nice. And apparently still a large cluster of solutions north of the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Monster HECS in there skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is this the type of potential track where from NC Triad on a line to DC can all score 6”+ snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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