Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We are right were we need to be 5 days out, on a northern edge of a major snowstorm with severe snowfall anomalies to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like FV3 is rolling again, until we get to 90 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 is looking good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like the NS wave is getting out of the way at 96, correct? On the FV3 that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Looks like the NS wave is getting out of the way at 96, correct? we have to see if something dives down again from Canada like the GFS. Otherwise it looks pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV Hr 96 Windows Update in progress.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like the 12z UKIE is just a tad too late for us at 144 -- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 looks very similar to 6z fv3... maybe ever so slightly less amplified. It looks worlds better then the GFS as the same time though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I think our last snowstorm in November had much better model agreement which is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the 12z UKIE is just a tad too late for us at 144 -- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 You sure this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, NoVaWx said: I think our last snowstorm in November had much better model agreement which is concerning. but that kind of came together at 84 hours right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the 12z UKIE is just a tad too late for us at 144 -- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 I dont know... yea that coastal is pretty far southeast but at the same time that is a lot of ridging up the east coast with a whole lot of NS energy diving in the backside... not sure what to think of that. Its also a lot slower also... I am starting to wonder if this is still evolving in termps of that progression...maybe an initial stj wave escaping before a capture and turn up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: You sure this time? lol---a tad late. the low is near the GA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol---a tad late. the low is near the GA coast Its just south of ILM lol... no where near GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: lol---a tad late. the low is near the GA coast And H5 actually looks somewhat decent. What's wrong with Yoda today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: FV Hr 96 Windows Update in progress.. 1%....2%...3%...(60 minutes later...)...100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: And H5 actually looks somewhat decent. What's wrong with Yoda today? Thats why I said it looks a little too late for us. It looks decent as you say, but I think it would just barely escape (as in just miss us) if it went another 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, smokeybandit said: 1%....2%...3%...(60 minutes later...)...100% I think I'll go workout. By the time I'm done it should be at 102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: but that kind of came together at 84 hours right? Yep you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: 1%....2%...3%...(60 minutes later...)...100% 60 minutes? Way too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I dont know... yea that coastal is pretty far southeast but at the same time that is a lot of ridging up the east coast with a whole lot of NS energy diving in the backside... not sure what to think of that. Its also a lot slower also... I am starting to wonder if this is still evolving in termps of that progression...maybe an initial stj wave escaping before a capture and turn up the coast. I could be wrong, but I thought the CMC was trying to do that in its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You sure this time? Dunno...yea that slp is south of where we want but look at the GFS as the same time...the GFS kind of has a secondary development as the upper energy catches up too but its way too suppressive for anything to come of it. But look at the UKMET at the same time...there is an opening there. This turn probably isnt good as is, but like I said I wonder if things arent still more in flux with how this evolves then thought. There are some attempts to key on a secondary development behind the initial stj wave and phase the NS in. That would open a whole other can of worms...and maybe introduce temperature issues if the cold has vacated the area by then...but its an interesting twist. Just thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 240 Euro will come out before the 102 panel of the FV3 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno...yea that slp is south of where we want but look at the GFS as the same time...the GFS kind of has a secondary development as the upper energy catches up too but its way too suppressive for anything to come of it. But look at the UKMET at the same time...there is an opening there. This turn probably isnt good as is, but like I said I wonder if things arent still more in flux with how this evolves then thought. There are some attempts to key on a secondary development behind the initial stj wave and phase the NS in. That would open a whole other can of worms...and maybe introduce temperature issues if the cold has vacated the area by then...but its an interesting twist. Just thinking out loud. this was showing up a couple days ago and showme though it had a chance. Wonky @ss evolution verbatim, as i'm not sure what the mechanism is to leave behind a piece, but hey, stranger things have happened. Just dont see how it could come up unless the NS energy in NE is lifting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I will say for the MA peeps the gfs is continuing to suffer from convective feedback issues, specifically at 132-138. If that energy up in Maine/Canada relaxes, the HP around Toronto should be far enough to the northwest to allow the system to ride up the coast more so and allow you guys to get in the action. Just my two cents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The 240 Euro will come out before the 102 panel of the FV3 I think it senses the interest from this board, and the wizard is just f'in w/ us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 While we wait another week for the FV3 to finish... GFS sets up a small but noticeable west based -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: While we wait another week for the FV3 to finish... GFS sets up a small but noticeable west based -NAO at 384...next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: at 384...next It's building in at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: While we wait another week for the FV3 to finish... GFS sets up a small but noticeable west based -NAO Subtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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