cae Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON seems like its really on its own alot of times...sometimes good for weenies and then you have today. It dosent seem like a good model I like that about the ICON - it doesn't seem to be highly correlated with the other models, which gives it extra value in the ensemble of globals. Last year it did well on several systems, but it seemed to struggle more with coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I think we are probably heading towards the same GFS solution as 6z at this point. The Nam looks better at 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: dude---everytime we have needed a north trend in the past couple of years to get snow...we have have failed. the north trend only happens when we dont need it to If your talking about the last 2 January storms There was a north trend but we needed too much. The last couple example at day 4-5 the storm was squashed to a flat wave in the Deep South. It recovered to crush ocean city and New York City but we needed too much. That's what im saying. If we need 50-100 miles we can work with that. If it's 250 miles south going into the final 72 it's probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 the confluence is weaker on the 12z gfs it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Through 102, 6z had closed off our SS SW, 12z is still open. Flow still looks too flat unless that NS SW gets moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 this might come up a bit more north than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the confluence is weaker on the 12z gfs it seems a little bit. Should help in next few panels. at 108 more consilidated precip (but better looking IMO) to NW side, and seemingly a tick N....so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Through 102, 6z had closed off our SS SW, 12z is still open. Flow still looks too flat unless that NS SW gets moving. its annoying cause confluence is better but now SS SW is weaker smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this might come up a bit more north than 6z That's what I'm thinking, although the H5 is a little flatter than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Through 102, 6z had closed off our SS SW, 12z is still open. Flow still looks too flat unless that NS SW gets moving. Trough axis is more negative at 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 lol CMC is now a miss south FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: lol CMC is now a miss south FWIW Nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I don't hate 114. little more north than 6z. At this rate, we'll get a snowstorm by 12z Saturday runs. SW VA getting pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nothing. just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 where did this ULL in Eastern Canada come from? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Some snow gets into SoMD at least this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 129 gets flurries into DC. Mod snow into EZF and SW VA to Richmond jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: where did this ULL in Eastern Canada come from? That's what I was wondering....it just showed up. It's not helping us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 the SW coming out of Canada is screwing the northward movement on the GFS edit: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'd post my thoughts on the gfs but I'm busy chasing bunnies in the yard. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh Yeah, we've got a wall just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At least it wasn’t a step in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: lol CMC is now a miss south FWIW say what? how is this south of us 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS definitely did show some improvements this run, just a matter of working with that SW over the NE. I feel the STJ s/w will come in juiced onced its ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: 129 gets flurries into DC. Mod snow into EZF and SW VA to Richmond jack. the flurries stop just short of my yard. Interesting. Weaker SW and maybe dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, we've got a wall just to our south. Only one model now gives us snow basically now that Canada f'd up. Time to see what the HIV3 gives us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd post my thoughts on the gfs but I'm busy chasing bunnies in the yard. or did you get stuck heading down the rabbit hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: say what? I don't know what CMC he was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: where did this ULL in Eastern Canada come from? its there on 6z, just further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Only one model now gives us snow basically now that Canada f'd up. Time to see what the HIV3 gives us The CMC isn't as bad as Yoda claimed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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