showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 6z GFS improves vs 0z Might try to come almost NNE. H5 presentation is MUCH better. Let's all get back on this rollercoaster again. I heard the GFS is crap so I didn't bother checking. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It keeps getting close, but just misses us. Better than 0z for sure tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It keeps getting close, but just misses us. Better than 0z for sure tho Took a step back I thought earlier in the evolution but came on strong later in the run with higher heights showing up in front of the storm. Liked the tilt of the trough better as well which would give the storm more room to move north as it strengthened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Snowfall maps saw a somewhat significant jump north with the axis of heaviest fall. Shifted maybe 75-100 miles north into southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lets all wait for the "New True King". FV3, FV3, FV3. Holding steady and not fluttering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: Lets all wait for the "New True King". FV3, FV3, FV3. Holding steady and not fluttering Why does, 'Meet the new boss, same as the old boss', come to mind? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. I agree with this. As always once all energy is better sampled at around 3-4 day lead is when we generally see sudden changes with the inevitable shift. Enough ens members in all 3 families suggesting stay tuned even farther N. Like I keep saying Carolinas up to S NE very much still in play. Minor sw changes yield large surface changes and we deal with this every time we track a phased vs non phased system but this one also has the wrench of a stall and 3rd lobe of energy trying to work into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 By hour 96 on the FV3 we are seeing a slightly quicker departure of the confluence in the NE. But it may be a wash as we are seeing a slightly quicker southern low as well. eta: Now we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That's usually a good sign for us at range. I'm in for snow on my birthday regardless It keeps getting close, but just misses us. Better than 0z for sure thoSent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: By hour 96 on the FV3 we are seeing a slightly quicker departure of the confluence in the NE. But it may be a wash as we are seeing a slightly quicker southern low as well. We need Goldilocks confluence. Not too hot or cold but just right. That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Took a step back I thought earlier in the evolution but came on strong later in the run with higher heights showing up in front of the storm. Liked the tilt of the trough better as well which would give the storm more room to move north as it strengthened. One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NE/NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: We need Goldilocks confluence. Not too hot or cold but just right. That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. Yeah, once this storm enters California, expect some changes. Better sampling, right? So that's when, sometime on Thursday. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We need Goldilocks confluence. Not too hot or cold but just right. That in itself it like threading the needle because you can’t tell exactly how it will set up 5-6 days out. Actually I think there is more play with the confluence then you may think. Just shift that 50-100 miles north then currently shown and we are looking good. 6+ hour quicker departure we are good. Even if we see the southern low initially gain some more latitude as it treks across the south we are good as the confluence relaxes just in time for the low to make a move north. Really the setup is there as shown it just needs some minor tweaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Night and day. In particular irt confluence and flow near NS and energy trying to phase near the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this. My thoughts have been for awhile that despite all the different looks we have seen that this would eventually end up with this track. I know I am in the minority here with this as well, but I also feel what we will end up with is a hybrid Miller A/B as we see the primary make a move towards Tenn. before we see a jump to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Night and day I flip through all the 500's from past runs and have to SMH when we have people come out with definitive statements that is a done deal with it being a southern slider. Now how anyone can look at the large run to run changes, in some case massive changes, and be so sure is beyond me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I flip through all the 500's from past runs and have to SMH when we have people come out with definitive statements that is a done deal with it being a southern slider. Now how anyone can look at the large run to run changes, in some case massive changes, and be so sure is beyond me. I don’t know much but I know it’s not a done deal. We are currently on a dark roller coaster with blindfolds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Of course we will follow this to the end...why wouldn't we...I guarantee this though at some point some on here will start rooting for NC or southern VA to miss out too. That's when it gets ugly...mark it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 06z FV3 is a big improvement from the 0z. At hour 138, it is snowing north of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 is a big hit....perfect track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: FV3 is a big hit....perfect track. "New King" or what. that is a nicely placed track right on the NC/Va beach line. well done now hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As seen with the original GFS we are also seeing better height rises in front of the storm as well as a better tilt on the trough dropping in behind it on the FV3.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Also seeing a much quicker relaxation of the confluence to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Sweet.. NYC is in play 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Finally a hit. Still too much model disagreement for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm sold on FV3! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 These modelsBut I’ll take increasingly heavy snow while watching the Ravens-Chiefs game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 will make people happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: FV3 will make people happy. Making people happy since 2018!!! But in all seriousness this new improved model has been holding steady and improving ever so slightly and keeping with the ensembles as well. Do like the 500 look as well. Lets move on to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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