Chris78 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The cmc actually drops in the NS and fazed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Better than I thought CMC would be... but its the CMC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 CMC is exactly what I want out here. Not so good for the coastal plain. The GFS is not so good for anyone above Richmond. I mean you cant really have two solution any more different at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Split the difference between the gfs and ggem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like 00z UKIE has SLP SE of ILM at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z This storm is continually 7 days away, if it hits our area at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 People need to stop making decisions based on single op runs at 120+ hours. The typical error at this range is still quite large. The guidance will spray solutions around but as long as it's not squashed down to Florida or cutting to our west we're still in the game. After the whole 0z suite maybe we will see a real trend but so far both the gfs and ggem were within typical error spread from their last runs for this range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 00z UKIE has SLP SE of ILM at 144 That's more disappointing to me than the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Now we wait forever for the 00z FV3 GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close. I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?) And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's more disappointing to me than the gfs the ukmet is known for having a strong solution followed by a POS of low that goes to bermuda the next run. We are running out of time..gotta make a move by Wednesday at the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Better than 12z so far but no 18z. Nothing is ever too easy Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival! A great storm but it did lack a certain roller coaster tracking period that is part of the fun. Just think if this one does pan out for us. We can look back at the Souther Slider, Cutter, and this storm is killing puppies and bunnies and laugh while it’s ripping fatties on Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival! no..it had one run where we lost 10 inches as it went south..went from like 25 to 15. It was the euro and psu had a meltdown i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 After this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 the FV3 is gonna be much better than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?) And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen? Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare. Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me! 20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13". Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the FV3 is gonna be much better than GFS but prob not as good as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the FV3 is gonna be much better than GFS Because of what you see or what you hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival! 2016 had curve balls too just not for D.C. But D.C. Went from the northern side of the bullseye to the southern edge in the last 48 hours. And NYC went from nothing to their largest snowfall ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: but prob not as good as 18z Why do ya say that? Looks pretty similar so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: no..it had one run where we lost 10 inches as it went south..went from like 25 to 15. It was the euro and psu had a meltdown i think I remember a few trying to antagonize me into a meltdown. But I wasn't too concerned. Yea it was a bit nerve wrackinh but It was just one run and bounced back. it was a bit of a "hmm" after days of solid crush runs. But yea there was one euro run in medium range that cut me to a few inches and had D.C. on the fringe of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I remember a few trying to antagonize me into a meltdown. But I wasn't too concerned. It was just one run and bounced back. But yea it was a bit of a "hmm" after days of solid crush runs. But yea there was one euro run in medium range that cut me to a few inches and had D.C. on the fringe of heavy snow. it happens every storm...we think we are on smooth sailing..and then we hit this bump in the road that makes us rethink everything. Fortunately in 2016...it was just one model run...lol and it rebounded quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 i miss the runs a few days ago where the primary tracked to Tn:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is it bad or good that the heights out in the NE are a lil higher on 96 comparing to 102? For the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do ya say that? Looks pretty similar so far! Have you met Ji? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 what happens to the FV3 at 96...does...someone power it off and then it takes 30 minutes to reset for the rest of the run like a cable box? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Is it bad or good that the heights out in the NE are a lil higher on 96 comparing to 102? For the FV3 I like what I see over the northeast. But the heights are slightly more suppressive in the Midwest. In the end the heights to our north are more important but if those lower heights in the Midwest translate east later in it could be a wash. Overall minor changes so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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