H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is what the euro started showing if the plains vort kicker starts dropping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ok I'll say this it trended away from option 1 but towards option 2 a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's trying, but probably a hair too late, but this run turned out better than it looked going in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Check those isobars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GFS looks an awful lot like the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Hell this run sucks ass even for me down in ROA I wouldn't quite say that. We are one of the few areas that doesn't actually mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here's what I can say...hear me out...I think h5 looks better this run than 12z tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 More precip in the TN valley at 126, trough is almost negative, maybe it comes up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Disc said: I wouldn't quite say that. We are one of the few areas that doesn't actually mix. It saved face at 126. The low is rapidly taking off east of MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That's got room to come north at 126 if it decides to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Here's what I can say...hear me out...I think h5 looks better this run than 12z tbh You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is either a new way to lose or a new way to win. Definitely an unexpected twist though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hold on.... Something interesting is happening...might be good here Option 2. Honest I don't like complicated but if this is going to work that's probably the only way. Fv3 is all alone with having a more relaxed NS over New England. Everything else seems to be going the wrong way. The whole tilt is becoming more positive. But...it's trending the right way on the other end with more energy digging in and it could try to turn it up if the flow relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Disc said: I wouldn't quite say that. We are one of the few areas that doesn't actually mix. Man this thing destroys us now from 126-138 as it stalls off NC weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Squashed at the last second, but still kept me on my toes for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Here's what I can say...hear me out...I think h5 looks better this run than 12z tbh I thought it did as well. We should have seen that low gain more latitude through the south I thought. Just didn't happen. Weak low, seeing the confluence maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok I'll say this it trended away from option 1 but towards option 2 a little. Yea, option 2 getting some legs. Gfs isn't there but it's closer. Euro was close too. Considering the trailing shortwave is way out in time we could end up with a phased coastal all along the coast.... it's not that far fetched at all.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Almost....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Huh...is this another wrinkle in the equation?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: It saved face at 126. The low is rapidly taking off east of MYR Still a very solid thump of snow. The trailing ULL keeps it snowing over us for a decent period of time. It's not the 2ft totals we were seeing however, but it's a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Has anyone else noticed the 0z+12z and 6z+18z correlations still there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Almost....again But it's a different kind of "almost" this time!...Something new that could trend the right way...just maybe! But this new wrinkle doesn't make this feel so far away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Almost....again Gfs with snow to the mouth of the Potomac at 132. I can live with it. We're still hanging out in striking distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The upper Midwest shortwave is already sucked into the bowling ball. But now there's another (fantasy) ns shortwave kicking things along. This could end up running the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Whew, for those above the VA line, it's painful to watch it go out to sea on the 18Z GFS. Just painful. Nice white donut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 In ways I feel this was better! The NE Squasher is really doing the job! I REALLY hope this is a bit overdone! Don't we all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I actually think that was one of the better GFS (non FV3) runs we’ve had (except for the blip 18z yesterday). Yes, trying to time a phase is tricky but all signs point to confluence over NE being too strong to overcome with the initial Vort. We need the feature diving in from the plains to phase and bring it up the coast. GFS was close. Onto the GEFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Whew, for those above the VA line, it's painful to watch it go out to sea on the 18Z GFS. Just painful. Nice white donut. OMG. Are you trying to get BobChill in a bunny killing rage!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Will be back for the FV-3.. and looking forward to the GEFs.. NEED SOME NORTH HOPE In next 18 hours! Thought the FV3 was still stuck on 144 hr from the 12z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Almost....againDosent Boston go through this everytime before they get in on the 2 -3 feet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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