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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Sandy was a cat 4-5 storm for a while, was larger and phased with multiple vorts and was enhanced by the trough and block. Different animal.

Pretty sure Sandy maxed out at 115mph just prior to landfall in Eastern Cuba.

It barely had any tropical characteristics left by LF and the core was completely eroded.  

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm.

ike  was bigger sandy was much bigger then florence.. sandy was the largest tropical cyclone in the atlantic...

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too.

Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast.

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Just now, ag3 said:

Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast.

Sandy was a major hurricane for about 5 minutes.

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2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Yes, but the surge will be much less then previously forecasted. Cat 4-5 wall of water vs. Cat 1-2.

The wind field is significantly bigger now than when it was a cat 4. If you had 2 similar sized storms and one was a cat 4 and the other was a cat 2, then yeah there would be a big difference in surge. Size matters a lot.  I don't know the particulars of the NC coastline but I know they are going to have a surge much bigger than whatever they would get in a typical cat 1 or 2.

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22 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here.

Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm.

Outta here.

Didn't take long for you to decide to stay.

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm.

Most times it’s the water that kills in hurricanes, not the wind, unless you’re on an island and take a direct hit from a major.

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On 9/12/2018 at 6:34 PM, nycwinter said:

ike  was bigger sandy was much bigger then florence.. sandy was the largest tropical cyclone in the atlantic...

I am not comparing to exacts, I am pointing out that it is in a subset of larger than normal storms like those others I listed.

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3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here.

Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm.

Outta here.

Come again when you can't stay quite so long...

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The wind field is significantly bigger now than when it was a cat 4. If you had 2 similar sized storms and one was a cat 4 and the other was a cat 2, then yeah there would be a big difference in surge. Size matters a lot.  I don't know the particulars of the NC coastline but I know they are going to have a surge much bigger than whatever they would get in a typical cat 1 or 2.

Thats what she or he said...

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Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too.

Also the slow down will prolong the onshore flow. The rise in ocean heights will continue to flow into inlets and estuaries for 48 hrs into the southern and central North Carolina coastline. It won't be able to retreat like a normal or faster landfall. You want the strong onshore flow to get out of there as fast as possible to stop piling up the fetch that has already been acquired and carried with the hurricane. Having it slow down and never getting offshore flow due to the prolonged slow motion and bend SW makes a bad situation worse. 

 

I expect surge projections near Wilmington to verify. The only way they do not is if Florence slows down much earlier than forecast and turns SW staying well away or off the North Carolina coast. This could carry the threat SW. There would still be surge, but that could help alleviate it. As current track stands, however, projections likely will verify unfortunately.

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32 minutes ago, ag3 said:

@Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing.

 

God, I can’t stand this, and is why I hate the internet...everyone thinks they are an expert. 

 

It is like the sports fan that is convinced they know more than the  coach/manager/GM. No, you do not. 

 

 

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Not downplaying this. Still dangerous. All I am saying it’s not the same beast it was 2 days ago.

Still very dangerous because of surge and rainfall and should be taken seriously. 

 

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The sun wasn’t what it was a couple days ago either. But you know what?  Get too close and you still die

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Not downplaying this. Still dangerous. All I am saying it’s not the same beast it was 2 days ago.
Still very dangerous because of surge and rainfall and should be taken seriously.


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It's over with its weaknesses is showing. Some rain and wind. Stick a fork in it it's done. Open the beaches back torrommow and let the children play in the ocean.

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I just wanted to say that I learn a lot from Stebo and the other degreed mets on this forum. Actually I can extend that to many other non-degreed posters as well. So thank you all for the wealth of information you provide and stoking my interest in weather.

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1 hour ago, ag3 said:

@Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing.

 

From your posts, I would say you have 1 year of experience 25 times. Not nearly the same thing.

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Here’s a big factor that people are missing. captured fetch. As the storm continues moving in the same direction and speed as the swell it is generating you continuously impart more energy into the water. It’s complex physics but relatively easy to understand. As the swell period (the length between crests) increases the speed and pure energy contained in the swell increase. The south Hatteras buoy is starting to show some very impressive swell periods for a tropical cyclone 16 seconds. What that all means sensibly is that the waves which will be ridding on top of the surge will be that much more energetic and thus damaging...    

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People on Ocracoke know the risk they're taking. We can look at the same circumstances and think they're reckless but they aren't ignorant of their situation. People living there have experienced many hurricanes.

I mean yeah it's still a dangerous storm and will have a surge much larger than you'd expect for the winds. That said, recon found cat 1 winds on that SW to NE pass. 90mph is not 140mph I don't care how big it is. Certainly seems like the rain will be the biggest story, which I think is what many people thought all along.

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