Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this. I just don't understand the rationale behind staying on a barrier island with this monster looming. They know what the barrier is for, right? What has to be said to convince them to get out of the way? The people who choose to stay put a price on their lives - the few hundred dollars it would have cost to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I wonder if we get a full blown landfall around Emerald Isle and not this hang just offshore thing. Florence is tracking a bit right today (and at decent speed) and would have to bend west more significantly to put the landfall down around ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wonder if we get a full blown landfall around Emerald Isle and not this hang just offshore thing. Florence is tracking a bit right today (and at decent speed) and would have to bend west more significantly to put the landfall down around ILM. Some of the 18z guidance are coming in NE of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah we'll see. I don't want to be that guy who overreacts to track deviations but this seems like more than a brief wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 God i miss winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 That’s an unfortunately shaped graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: God i miss winter You say that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah we'll see. I don't want to be that guy who overreacts to track deviations but this seems like more than a brief wobble. this storm is already north of the nhc center position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. Threat has been decreasing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, TPAwx said: That’s an unfortunately shaped graphic. No... it is glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Threat has been decreasing all day. Sigh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sigh..... It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. People are stuck on 2 days ago here. Far from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 At least they are sh*thing up right thread...somebody should ask families of those on Bolivar in Ike what cat 2s can do...pure devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tibet said: You say that now I'm a big winter weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. I’m sorry you’re disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. It's not a standard Carolina storm. The surge doesn't just go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I'm a big winter weenie And when you end up east of a cutoff like 3 times this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’m sorry you’re disappointed. Im not disappointed. Just stating facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Can the uneducated NYC posters go back to their subforum? These "it's no big deal" posts ring hollow and have no meteorological basis to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's not a standard Carolina storm. The surge doesn't just go poof. The storm is weakening right now. Surge forecasts will decline as well. And the track is also east of forecast. This likely landfalls east of 12z suite and diminishes quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Can the uneducated NYC posters go back to their subforum? These "it's no big deal" posts ring hollow and have no meteorological basis to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:10 PM, ag3 said: The storm is weakening right now. Surge forecasts will decline as well. And the track is also east of forecast. This likely landfalls east of 12z suite and diminished quicker. You literally don't know what you are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I'm a very big weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:12 PM, ag3 said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. The surge is going to be like a cat 3-4 storm, again you have no idea what you are talking about and it blatantly shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Ag3 is infuriating to all who saw the utter destruction ike caused....just never ever learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. It's not going to hit NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Jakkel138 said: It's not going to hit NY No ****. It’s going to be a weakening category 1-2 storm and likely landfall east of forecast, IMO. Closer to Moorehead or even OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. Who knew a cat 1-2 is not something to be concerned about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The storm is weakening right now. Surge forecasts will decline as well. And the track is also east of forecast. This likely landfalls east of 12z suite and diminishes quicker.Your lack of knowledge about TCs speaks for itself. Fetch for surge has already been acquired. Prolonged onshore flow on the north side of Florence's circulation is a worse case scenario. Matters little that the core vortex even drops below Cat 1 at this point. Large expanded windfield and slow down perpendicular to coastline is absolutely the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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