ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, fourseasons said: Who knew a cat 1-2 is not something to be concerned about? Never said it wasn’t. It’s just being overhyped here. The hype was 2 days ago. That forecast never panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: No ****. It’s goig to be a weakening category 1-2 storm and likely landfall east of forecast, IMO. Closer to Moorehead. You’re bittercasting. You are annoyed it isn’t hitting nyc and are coming in here whining about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Your lack of knowledge about TCs speaks for itself. Fetch for surge has already been acquired. Prolonged onshore flow on the north side of Florence's circulation is a worse case scenario. Matters little that the core vortex even drops below Cat 1 at this point. Large expanded windfield and slow down perpendicular to coastline is absolutely the issue. Ok. I’ll come back after for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: The storm is weakening right now. Surge forecasts will decline as well. And the track is also east of forecast. This likely landfalls east of 12z suite and diminishes quicker. If we do get a quicker landfall and not the stall just offshore, then it would increase the odds that it is still a high end cat 2 at minimum or possibly cat 3 at landfall. The coming surge is already baked in so to speak, unless Florence were to literally fall apart very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, KPITSnow said: You’re bittercasting. You are annoyed it isn’t hitting nyc and are coming in here whining about it. Was apparent it wasn’t hitting NYC 6-7 days ago. Keep hyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: If we do get a quicker landfall and not the stall just offshore, then it would increase the odds that it is still a high end cat 2 at minimum or possibly cat 3 at landfall. The coming surge is already baked in so to speak, unless Florence were to literally fall apart very soon. Looks like it’s falling apart to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 yah it is falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It won't go poof, but a legit chance it could be a weaker cat 2. I don't think winds are the real issue. Structures will withstand those winds. It's the rain and surge. I honestly do not know how bad the surge will be, but a long sustained bombardment will cause issues for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Can the uneducated NYC posters go back to their subforum? These "it's no big deal" posts ring hollow and have no meteorological basis to them. This is the flo banter thread plus telling folks to go back to where they belong is....well....I’ll say childish. With that said, nbd posts are akeen to premature ejacts over a 2 day nam snow map showing 60”. Let’s see how it shakes out, many communities expecially those on the coast shouldn’t let their guards down. Maybe the winds won’t be as destructive. Still, Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won't go poof, but a legit chance it could be a weaker cat 2. I don't think winds are the real issue. Structures will withstand those winds. It's the rain and surge. I honestly do not know how bad the surge will be, but a long sustained bombardment will cause issues for sure. @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:22 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This is the flo banter thread plus telling folks to go back to where they belong is....well....I’ll say childish. With that said, nbd posts are akeen to premature ejacts over a 2 day nam snow map showing 60”. Let’s see how it shakes out, many communities expecially those on the coast shouldn’t let their guards down. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Banter doesn't have to include completely stupid posts... Also what are akeen, ejacts, and expecially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather. 25 years experience means nothing. I know a guy who has 25 years experience being a dad...and he’s still a real sh*tty dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:24 PM, ag3 said: @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather. 25 years experience means nothing. I didn't say anything about credientials, but you are as uneducated about tropical meteorology as you can get. Lets put it this way, Sandy was a cat 1 when it made landfall into NJ, I guess it was no big deal because it was a cat 1 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Banter doesn't have to include completely stupid posts... Also what are akeen, ejacts, and expecially? I consider your posts stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Banter doesn't have to include completely stupid posts... Also what are akeen, ejacts, and expecially? ha. Akin, not akeen...which is a very bad urban term. Thanks for the spell check dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather. 25 years experience means nothing. But saying it's falling apart isn't appropriate either. There's gonna be a lot of water with this from ocean and freshwater. I do think winds won't be as destructive as I thought even yesterday. I mean in terms of structural damage. Obviously winds will cause trees/power outages/ roof issues etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: I didn't say anything about credientials, but you are as uneducated about tropical meteorology as you can get. Lets put it this way, Sandy was a cat 1 when it made landfall into NJ, I guess it was no big deal because it was a cat 1 right? Sandy was a cat 4-5 storm for a while, was larger and phased with multiple vorts and was enhanced by the trough and block. Different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I didn't say anything about credientials, but you are as uneducated about tropical meteorology as you can get. Lets put it this way, Sandy was a cat 1 when it made landfall into NJ, I guess it was no big deal because it was a cat 1 right? Too many look at the Cat number, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: But saying it's falling apart isn't appropriate either. There's gonna be a lot of water with this from ocean and freshwater. I do think winds won't be as destructive as I thought even yesterday. I mean in terms of structural damage. Obviously winds will cause trees/power outages/ roof issues etc. Yes, but the surge will be much less then previously forecasted. Cat 4-5 wall of water vs. Cat 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Too many look at the Cat number, agree. Not even close to the same type of system and a degreed Met should know the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:29 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Too many look at the Cat number, agree. Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 seems florence eye is collapsing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Sandy was a cat 4-5 storm for a while, was larger and phased with multiple vorts and was enhanced by the trough and block. Different animal. Pretty sure Sandy maxed out at 115mph just prior to landfall in Eastern Cuba. It barely had any tropical characteristics left by LF and the core was completely eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm. ike was bigger sandy was much bigger then florence.. sandy was the largest tropical cyclone in the atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too. Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast. Sandy was a major hurricane for about 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Yes, but the surge will be much less then previously forecasted. Cat 4-5 wall of water vs. Cat 1-2. The wind field is significantly bigger now than when it was a cat 4. If you had 2 similar sized storms and one was a cat 4 and the other was a cat 2, then yeah there would be a big difference in surge. Size matters a lot. I don't know the particulars of the NC coastline but I know they are going to have a surge much bigger than whatever they would get in a typical cat 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Sorry. Yes, Sandy maxed out as a 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, ag3 said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. Didn't take long for you to decide to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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