moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Easy landing st pwm, but I won’t get into jfk.. hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, so close to a blue nuke on the euro...get that good omega/lift just a shade further northeast into SNE, and we're parachuting. Instead, we get mostly very light rain on very gusty ENE winds. With slightly less blocking that hour 66-72 panel time frame would make you think New England is about to get destroyed... then it's nope, shunt SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: As a "coastie" I'm rapidly losing interest. Does anything show a warning storm for this area? Go ahead it won't matter in the end either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'll go way out on a limb, lol, and say the 18z GFS will be well south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Damn Storm Surge ya got me in the fishing mindset, one truly beautiful area. Taylor Swifts beach is a beach break nobody surfs there, right around the corner at Watch Hill lighthouse different story, if ya got the balls. According to the Watch Hill Lighthouse keeper, during Sandy the waves were crashing up to her lawn and spray was going over the house. That is over 50 Ft to the lawn and 100 over the house. 12Z settled nothing. what a PITA evolution. Don't like the UKMET or Euro late bombs, we may miss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: My only hesitation is that all the spread remains north, and the Euro op is close to being THE outlier solution within its own ensemble. Fair point. I'm wishcasting the death of this thing.....some courses around here are starting to partially open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Spread on the GGEM ensembles was NW just like the GEFS. I am cautious about writing off the GFS evolution. The NAM looks way to fast with the southern shortwave, that is the only solution I am inclined to throw out from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Meaning I think the low would have or should have been closer to the coast, Still south but it went due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, so close to a blue nuke on the euro...get that good omega/lift just a shade further northeast into SNE, and we're parachuting. Instead, we get mostly very light rain on very gusty ENE winds. Can you see or do you know what 700mb temps are on the Euro? Tough to tell from what I’m looking at but based on color scale looks like around -5C??? Isn’t that a tad too warm for snow production? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 It wouldn't surprise me if the Euro was still too slow coming out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Rev likes ICON Ray likes CMC Gefs are amped to PF The board should close for a mental health break till 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOl I just saw this, actually would be ironic as there are a couple of know it alls posting and tweeting about how it's impossible for NYC to have a snow storm because there is no cold air around, rooting for it if we miss. Congrats SW CT peeps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Spread on the GGEM ensembles was NW just like the GEFS. I am cautious about writing off the GFS evolution. The NAM looks way to fast with the southern shortwave, that is the only solution I am inclined to throw out from 12z. We have had a lot of northern stream dominance this winter, Tough to think that this go round its going to crap the bed in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Can you see or do you know what 700mb temps are on the Euro? Tough to tell from what I’m looking at but based on color scale looks like around -5C??? Isn’t that a tad too warm for snow production? weather.us has them And it's only a problem if that is the top of the cloud layer. Plus you can expect plenty of salt nuclei with the deep E flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: It wouldn't surprise me if the Euro was still too slow coming out of the southwest. Which it likes doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Can you see or do you know what 700mb temps are on the Euro? Tough to tell from what I’m looking at but based on color scale looks like around -5C??? Isn’t that a tad too warm for snow production? -5C is marginal in our salt-nuclei infested environment in SNE...prob too warm if that's the absolute min temp in saturated column....but you likely have saturation above that for seed-feeder even if the lift isn't great above that level. The 850 temps are marginal on the euro...around 0 to +1C...but that is with crappy lift. The bulk of the dynamics are to our south and southwest, so if you bring them into SNE, then we're prob getting a paste bomb over the interior. A euro solution that is a little more robust would probably be in the sweet spot to maximize the snow out of this marginal airmass. You obviously don't want to get it amped to the point of GFS-esque flooding the interior with warmer mid-levels. You want the nose of that LLJ to be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Big differences 12z GFS versus Euro in evolution I believe can best be pinpointed through 48, and it's the Southern stream shortwave that's holding back too much--this is a critical and well known bias of the euro. You can look at previous runs of the euro and see that when the energy isn't held back in the SW, the evolution becomes very similar to the 12z GFS.... She's going to be tucked in folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: Can you see or do you know what 700mb temps are on the Euro? Tough to tell from what I’m looking at but based on color scale looks like around -5C??? Isn’t that a tad too warm for snow production? Weather.us Depends upon time frame but they range from -6C to -10C in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is a Gfs/Euro blend a feasible expectation? And would that yield a desirable result for SNE? GFS lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Shift the 12z euro solution 100 miles east and SNE is back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 When this ends up a major winter storm for many of us.. these last 2-3 days of weenies will be fun to revisit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Which it likes doing. I will say that there has been a multi-run/multi-day trend of having this thing hang back more out there. In tandem, there is a multi-day trend of higher heights over the E CONUS in the 12z tomorrow timeframe. One of the reasons I am suspicious that this might be coming north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Shift the 12z euro solution 100 miles east and SNE is back in the game Certainly possible and if the Queen had balls she would be king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LOl I just saw this, actually would be ironic as there are a couple of know it alls posting and tweeting about how it's impossible for NYC to have a snow storm because there is no cold air around, rooting for it if we miss. Congrats SW CT peeps though That is just sick for Ct; a state divided.. Looks like Mexican wall has been displaced a couple thousand miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: weather.us has them And it's only a problem if that is the top of the cloud layer. Plus you can expect plenty of salt nuclei with the deep E flow. 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: -5C is marginal in our salt-nuclei infested environment in SNE...prob too warm if that's the absolute min temp in saturated column....but you likely have saturation above that for seed-feeder even if the lift isn't great above that level. The 850 temps are marginal on the euro...around 0 to +1C...but that is with crappy lift. The bulk of the dynamics are to our south and southwest, so if you bring them into SNE, then we're prob getting a paste bomb over the interior. A euro solution that is a little more robust would probably be in the sweet spot to maximize the snow out of this marginal airmass. You obviously don't want to get it amped to the point of GFS-esque flooding the interior with warmer mid-levels. You want the nose of that LLJ to be further east. Thank for for the info! Did either of you find something odd with the 2M temp outputs? Looked like the 2M temps absolutely crash region wide from 6z to 12z to below freezing but then shoot back up into the 30's by 18z...and it was a substantial area this happens...basically from SE Canada down into CT. I thought maybe we had a period of like northerly winds then went easterly or something but that wasn't the case at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... 'on the coast' there is still a warning potential for CF/tide concerns... is that what you meant Well I'm about 4 to 5 miles from the coast as the crow flies so street flooding might be an issue. Snow is more of a financial concern to me at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Riveting Ray just signed off Nah. Still not sold on minimal impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I wonder if there could even be a 3rd developing low on the coast as main event moves east? It seems really unlikely the whole thing would go out to sea in this tropical airmass, even at 120-144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: When this ends up a major winter storm for many of us.. these last 2-3 days of weenies will be fun to revisit I hope your clients of the No hairclub for men, are well prepared and safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LOl I just saw this, actually would be ironic as there are a couple of know it alls posting and tweeting about how it's impossible for NYC to have a snow storm because there is no cold air around, rooting for it if we miss. Congrats SW CT peeps though 6-10 inches for me, lock it up I am suppose to be trading in the Jeep and picking up the minivan on Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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