ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'd prob feel pretty safe tossing the GFS....it's a pretty bad outlier. That doesn't mean we give it no weight though...I could def see this coming toward it, but have a hard time buying that it will score the majority of the marbles on a 3 day forecast against the foreign global guidance. I could see the classic 30/70 compromise happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thank for for the info! Did either of you find something odd with the 2M temp outputs? Looked like the 2M temps absolutely crash region wide from 6z to 12z to below freezing but then shoot back up into the 30's by 18z...and it was a substantial area this happens...basically from SE Canada down into CT. I thought maybe we had a period of like northerly winds then went easterly or something but that wasn't the case at all. Dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: When this ends up a major winter storm for many of us.. these last 2-3 days of weenies will be fun to revisit I honestly don't have a clue what's going to happen. I'd be leaning heavily on antecedent conditions and climo for the approximate track around the South Coast. Favor inland/hilly areas to flip to some snow with mostly rain down in the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Need to get the precip first, and then it'll snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: 6-10 inches for me, lock it up I am suppose to be trading in the Jeep and picking up the minivan on Friday.... Congrats on becoming a soccer Mom, Kev can give you tips. Seriously though that would be cool for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Thank for for the info! Did either of you find something odd with the 2M temp outputs? Looked like the 2M temps absolutely crash region wide from 6z to 12z to below freezing but then shoot back up into the 30's by 18z...and it was a substantial area this happens...basically from SE Canada down into CT. I thought maybe we had a period of like northerly winds then went easterly or something but that wasn't the case at all. The 2m temps jump because of the diurnal code in the model and it becomes stronger late in the winter...you sometimes have to temper it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Boy that's tough from Dr. No. I definitely don't love how it seems to be generating a big area of PV well S and E (over the Gulf Stream ) which then becomes the dominant surface low. Now convection can certainly generate PV, but usually strong upper level dynamics can remain dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Talk about a misleading mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I mean you place the L over that blob and let it do its dance, And you have more folks happy then smashing keyboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob feel pretty safe tossing the GFS....it's a pretty bad outlier. That doesn't mean we give it no weight though...I could def see this coming toward it, but have a hard time buying that it will score the majority of the marbles on a 3 day forecast against the foreign global guidance. I could see the classic 30/70 compromise happening. The GFS is probably the upper bound of plausibility. The Euro op on the other hand is an outlier in its ensemble. So a blend is probably a safe place to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Boy that's tough from Dr. No. I definitely don't love how it seems to be generating a big area of PV well S and E (over the Gulf Stream ) which then becomes the dominant surface low. Now convection can certainly generate PV, but usually strong upper level dynamics can remain dominant. The jump in the upper air center from 72 to 78 hours looks suspicious. That is where I'd start wondering if it curls up more toward E of LI or ACK instead of going like straight east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2m temps jump because of the diurnal code in the model and it becomes stronger late in the winter...you sometimes have to temper it. Exactly what I thought of. Euro late bomb sucks for the excitement crowd. Wonder if it is the outlier when EPS comes out. UKmet 6 hr precip maps look a lot like the euro only displaced further NE into SNE so you end up with basically an INVT snow like the Euro has for NYC NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When this ends up a major winter storm for many of us.. these last 2-3 days of weenies will be fun to revisit Not a fan of the shunt anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob feel pretty safe tossing the GFS....it's a pretty bad outlier. That doesn't mean we give it no weight though...I could def see this coming toward it, but have a hard time buying that it will score the majority of the marbles on a 3 day forecast against the foreign global guidance. I could see the classic 30/70 compromise happening. I'd flip that 30/70. Euro/GFS. I don't like how earlier runs of the Euro look so similar to today's GFS runs...I think it gives the GFS a lot more weight than it otherwise would in this situation. And then the euro bias.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Dynamic cooling I was looking at this aspect over the past few days but I wasn't sure how much of a role that played down towards the surface. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2m temps jump because of the diurnal code in the model and it becomes stronger late in the winter...you sometimes have to temper it. This is something I'll keep in mind going forward...I've been trying to really look more into things like this within the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Uk 6 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I'd flip that 30/70. Euro/GFS. I don't like how earlier runs of the Euro look so similar to today's GFS runs... Using a crude measurement of SLP center...a 50/50 compromise would be a little bit inside the benchmark at 72 hours. So we'll see where we settle 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not a fan of the shunt anymore? Haven’t been for like 4 days son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Haven’t been for like 4 days son By 4 days, you mean yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 FWIW even the local forecast discussion says it’ll be another 24 hrs before anyone has a handle on future track/intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: FWIW even the local forecast discussion says it’ll be another 24 hrs before anyone has a handle on future track/intensity Given that we're not really talking a sampling issue, but a phasing issue, it could be pretty late in the game for when a solution settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: By 4 days, you mean yesterday. You weren’t around over the weekend . Drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I've been wondering too if the system occludes way too early and that begins to shut off moisture inflow into the storm. There are also some hints that we could get drier air working into the area beginning Friday morning as there is a pocket of really dry air off to the NE (looking at 700mb RH). This is so complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Should have stuck with the shunt idea perhaps. Got caught up in all the hoopla ^ 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You weren’t around over the weekend . Drinking Yeah, so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Haven’t been for like 4 days son Yesterday I thought you were? When you were asking Will when "his" north trend might develop? Maybe we all misunderstood. Honestly doesn't matter just bantering with ya, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: ^ 4 days ago Miss “perhaps”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 The Euro successfully pulls off a -4 SD NAO evolution, and through the NAO's entire life cycle, peg on the quintessentially perfect regions for climatology, with mere two whiffs. Really pretty amazing actually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro 144-168-192 Low is stalled/wandering. I wonder if this could be a situation where Low sits on the coast until 2nd event comes around 216 and they also merge and bomb? probably like 10% but an interesting thought... there is a lot of potential energy on the coast right now, moisture, sun etc. I also think models aren't deepening it enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Miss “perhaps”? No. Your weak @ss attempt to cover all your bases don't fly around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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