Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Well, first of all my thoughts go to all the coastal Mass peeps that are gonna take it on the chin. The flooding is gonna suck there. But I'm ready to cancel my Southbury Weather Center subscription and declare this DOA in my hood. We lost the capture/stall, got a weird yank south to the better vorticity in its place, and before we can capitalize on dynamic cooling it's heading out. Chilly rain on a stiff northeast breeze is the order of the day; hopefully not enough that my basement takes on water. Time to tune up my lawnmower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nam not wavering whole helping E Mass . It’s on it seems It will probably gloriously cave into flames like it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: It will probably gloriously cave into flames like it usually does. It’s actually 5mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was thinking of the same B&B lol. Ur chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm looking at the Helderberg Escarpment (1600') out my classroom window right now (400'), about to drive home (225'). Tomorrow should be quite interesting. Our school has 2 bus runs on the escarpment and the rest down here. Roads might be fine down here while the mountain gets destroyed. Tough snow day call. Will the precip be heavy enough for dynamic cooling down here in the valley? All hail the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Man, tough forecast for ORH hills...was hoping for more clarity today but not getting a lot. Could be either 3" or 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya Was looking at 3 places. One was a nice mtn lodge (ran about 160$) Other was a meh hotel/motel for 99 And another a b/b for 120 Looks to me to start snowing by 11pm On 18z nam Yeah, the start time seems to be trending a little earlier up in the mountains. Doesn't seem like they'll be dealing with much rain at all. I just hate to pay for two nights somewhere especially when I live close by. 4 minutes ago, snowgeek said: I'm looking at the Helderberg Escarpment (1600') out my classroom window right now (400'), about to drive home (225'). Tomorrow should be quite interesting. Our school has 2 bus runs on the escarpment and the rest down here. Roads might be fine down here while the mountain gets destroyed. Tough snow day call. Will the precip be heavy enough for dynamic cooling down here in the valley? All hail the NAM! Reminds me of one of my favorite snow pictures ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, tough forecast for ORH hills...was hoping for more clarity today but not getting a lot. Could be either 3" or 20". It's going to be a really tough call out here for schools tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Well, first of all my thoughts go to all the coastal Mass peeps that are gonna take it on the chin. The flooding is gonna suck there. But I'm ready to cancel my Southbury Weather Center subscription and declare this DOA in my hood. We lost the capture/stall, got a weird yank south to the better vorticity in its place, and before we can capitalize on dynamic cooling it's heading out. Chilly rain on a stiff northeast breeze is the order of the day; hopefully not enough that my basement takes on water. Time to tune up my lawnmower. People are lamenting in their own ways ... but it is clear, adding those up all those intents and purposes, and dividing by the total = a very, very sore and violated butt right now. If it is any consolation, the system in D7-ish is still very much on the table... I know, I know... people need at least three days of attitude recovery/support group ledge counseling before taking any interest... But, it's out there nonetheless. One thing that's a head scratcher ... for those that use the FRH grid (NAM FOUS) ... these numbers over Logan is a lot of heavy snow. Granted, the top "120" is 1.2 inches up to that point in time, when the temperature is +1, 0, and -1 C at 1000, 900, and 800mb respectively. Still, one has to wonder how much of that QPF falls at that isothermal blue snow profile. Either way, if some part of that plus the .17" plus the .42" ... not talking a bad snow at all there. And that's at Logan where no one is expecting any snow at all. Weird. 30120979242 20909 960348 41010099 30032959139 04114 983433 40009895 36017869247 20813 020138 40009797 36015787644 04115 053429 39010197 42042936442 00713 073628 40009900 42000727746 00913 103529 40010098 48001773042 -1321 130232 38029697 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, tough forecast for ORH hills...was hoping for more clarity today but not getting a lot. Could be either 3" or 20". Or 0 “ if DT has his way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, tough forecast for ORH hills...was hoping for more clarity today but not getting a lot. Could be either 3" or 20". Nice buffer between totals, Can always adjust up if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wiz would probably sell his soul to realize those SRH values in May with a few thousand joules of CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Interesting that the NAM has stayed the course so close up to the event. I would have thought by now that it would have caved or other models cave to it. Other than it being "the NAM" does anyone think it has any credence other than wanting it to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Well, first of all my thoughts go to all the coastal Mass peeps that are gonna take it on the chin. The flooding is gonna suck there. But I'm ready to cancel my Southbury Weather Center subscription and declare this DOA in my hood. We lost the capture/stall, got a weird yank south to the better vorticity in its place, and before we can capitalize on dynamic cooling it's heading out. Chilly rain on a stiff northeast breeze is the order of the day; hopefully not enough that my basement takes on water. Time to tune up my lawnmower. The wife is locking the knife drawer at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ALY just hoisted WSW for my area... like where I'm at, not the pounding the Catskills getting but enough I believe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, tavwtby said: ALY just hoisted WSW for my area... like where I'm at, not the pounding the Catskills getting but enough I believe.. Ya think you are in a good spot as any with the elevation and being NW of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is probably an easy call, but I will say that the final snow totals and placement won't look anything like that 12z Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, tough forecast for ORH hills...was hoping for more clarity today but not getting a lot. Could be either 3" or 20". Bro you know it's gonna be all rain with maybe 2" of slop glop. Everything is basically pointing or heading towards that, even the NAM. This storm is going to end up like vietNAM ---> a giant mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Bro you know it's gonna be all rain with maybe 2" of slop glop. Everything is basically pointing or heading towards that, even the NAM. This storm is going to end up like vietNAM ---> a giant mess. If I knew it was going to be 2 inches of slush, I wouldn't have made the post I made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If I knew it was going to be 2 inches of slush, I wouldn't have made the post I made. Will...come on now...you know. You know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18z RGEM is a pretty good improvement for eastern folks...really prolongs the firehose...still going at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NWS is calling for 1-2" here tomorrow night, honestly I doubt there will be any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18z RGEM about same as 12z... but prolongs precip in eastern areas longer... looks like we benefit from those meso-lows slingshotting back around the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, snowgeek said: I'm looking at the Helderberg Escarpment (1600') out my classroom window right now (400'), about to drive home (225'). Tomorrow should be quite interesting. Our school has 2 bus runs on the escarpment and the rest down here. Roads might be fine down here while the mountain gets destroyed. Tough snow day call. Will the precip be heavy enough for dynamic cooling down here in the valley? All hail the NAM! Thatcher Park all the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone notice how the nam has that secondary slug of moisture for e mass again between 6z and 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Best forecast I can find so far as far as NWS zone forecasts go. 18-24" of snow with winds up to 55mph...sign me up in the Catskills. Detailed forecast for Western Greene Tonight Snow or rain. Snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Friday Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Windy and much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Friday Night Cloudy. Snow, mainly in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very windy and cold. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, diminishing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent. * WHAT...Heavy wet snow and gusty winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches, with localized amounts up to 30 inches, are expected. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Schoharie, Western Albany, Western Greene and Western Ulster Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Woah look at 8z Saturday on the 18z RGEM...! Those slingshotting mesolows really do benefit eastern SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Woah look at 8z Saturday on the 18z RGEM...! Those slingshotting mesolows really do benefit eastern SNE... These large expanding upper lows often have some surprises with them and they can "overstay their welcome" so to speak. As the low tries to drift SE, the expanding circulation tries to offset that some and keep us in the firing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Best forecast I can find so far as far as NWS zone forecasts go. 18-24" of snow with winds up to 55mph...sign me up in the Catskills. Detailed forecast for Western Greene Tonight Snow or rain. Snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Friday Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Windy and much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Friday Night Cloudy. Snow, mainly in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very windy and cold. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, diminishing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent. You're just trying to torture us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The wife is locking the knife drawer at 12z tomorrow. I have somehow been able to remain emotionally unattached to this storm. Maybe the December 92 analogs have kept me in check but I refuse to let myself get caught up in the what if or what could have been if we even had a Canadian moose fart of cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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