downeastnc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Sleeting furiously at Cold Rain’s. Never discount the Nam’s warm nose. The NAM is way more over amped compared to other models.....it is doing exactly what it is famous for doing....I doubt we see the GFS/Euro/CMC even close to this amped.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I was looking at 12K NAM, but 3K NAM is even better, as Lookout posted above. The precipitation shield is beautifully far inland.Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 973mb off of North Carolina, Does anyone know the record for winter storms? the legend was about there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even with the warm nose, NAM is showing 6 hours of great backside snow for CHS and MYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: The NAM is way more over amped compared to other models.....it is doing exactly what it is famous for doing....I doubt we see the GFS/Euro/CMC even close to this amped.... People say they fixed the NAM overamped bias with the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The NAM is way more over amped compared to other models.....it is doing exactly what it is famous for doing....I doubt we see the GFS/Euro/CMC even close to this amped.... Maybe. But I can hope not. Again, living in different locales, it's interesting how we all look for "positive" trends in whatever the latest model output shows. One of us should be happy with the results of this upcoming storm, and right now the smart money is still on your neck of the woods, downeast. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yeah the NAM is not what it use to be where you’d have to cut the totals in half or 3/4 because of its amped bias. Actually did very well here with our first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Remember the NAM is on an island right now... I still think this setup is best for 95 East Does nobody find it odd that it looks like the main low moves westward back towards the coast? How many times have we seen that happen to the extent the nam is showing? Just seems odd to me. It will be interesting to see the rest of the 12z runs and what all the local NWS offices have to say where they put their support in the AFD's this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I would pay a large sum of money for this, absolutely incredible itll be a gso jack pot before all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow! Hours 57-60 on the 3K NAM have the snow shield way far west. I can't figure out how to attach the images on my phone, but here:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010112&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=0Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If we get any legitimate globals to show anything close to this, winter storm watches will be up by the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The 3km NAM is a beut for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If we get any legitimate globals to show anything close to this, winter storm watches will be up by the AM. honestly after what happened last jan with literally EVERY member of the gefs giving central nc 6+ of snow 48 hrs out, I could not care less what they globals do with this heck we were watching gso get rocked while the gefs were still pumping out big central nc totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Lookout said: nam has accumulating snow ONE county away here. need only the tiniest of shifts...also ratios on the back end will be impressive. 3km nam precip shield is too Is anything preventing the northwest trend from continuing to occur? I’m thinking ATL may be out on this one but areas say from Conyers to Athens and east wouldn’t need much more of a shift to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The winds look pretty intense too. Blizzard conditions along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If we get any legitimate globals to show anything close to this, winter storm watches will be up by the AM. Doubt that really. But you know some NWS offices probably spit out some coffee on those NAM runs, and praying none of the global S latch on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Where you at in Tallahassee? Definitely away from the water is the best. North of town -- 20 miles from Ga. line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ice at the coast instead of snow. What is new? It happens every time. Sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Eric Webb just mentioned Jan 2000... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ajr said: Eric Webb just mentioned Jan 2000... I called that about 5 days ago lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That was todays 60 hour frame yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: That was todays 60 hour frame yesterday at this time. Amazing how quickly things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I called that about 5 days ago lol... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF Plumes have four plumes with basically nothing for CLT with four more anywhere from 2-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Wow! Hours 57-60 on the 3K NAM have the snow shield way far west. I can't figure out how to attach the images on my phone, but here:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010112&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=0 Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Phase happy NAM v/s RGEM at 36. RGEM looks like other guidance at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SFC depiction of 6z RGEM vs 12z NAM at 12z Wednesday. RGEM very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, zacharylane3 said: TOTALLY agree! It’s definitely gonna be more snow than ice. It’s cold folks! I've seen plenty of sleet with surface temperature in the upper 10s and low 20s when I lived in Greensboro. Don't discount it because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 973mb to 950smb makes it one of the strongest storms on record, 950mb off of NYC I think is the record. Doesn't this seem odd because the storm looks disorganized on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We had .03 of freezing rain/drizzle on Friday morning in Charleston and it caused chaos for hours. Four or five major bridges were closed. Anything more than that would be a shutdown event. We had about a quarter inch of ice in the Feb 2014 storm and the Ravenel was closed for 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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