zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS slightly west. Not much but West. Showing 2 inches of accumulating snow for coastal areas of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Today feels like the day - the NAM showed its hand and I think we'll start to see some action from other models shortly. Been looking at SREF plumes and averages have been climbing up the past day for at least some measurable snow in RDU; while mean didn't increase this morning there are more members with measurable snow (vs higher outliers earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6z RGEM is even more west (with precip) than the NAM and starts the development of the second low sooner. Here's hour 54; as far as it goes on Tropical Tidbits: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 6z RGEM is even more west than the NAM and starts the development of the second low sooner. Here's hour 54; as far as it goes on Tropical Tidbits: Now if the RGEM is showing more west, I believe it over the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM basically has a Snowacane for South Carolina.... Is it right? I doubt it, but maybe its right with the path... We will soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z RGEM is even more west than the NAM and starts the development of the second low sooner. Here's hour 54; as far as it goes on Tropical Tidbits: Wow. Look at SE GA. Can't wait to see how this unfolds. NWS JAX discussion this morning was pretty good. They are discounting the GFS and going with a NAM/EURO blend. Looks like Waycross will start out as a freezing rain, before changing over to rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Mostly sleet 95 east I believe. I really hope not. Being in the eastern part of NC I’m accustom to being shafted but at this point I’d rather have nothing rather than all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RAH is saying light snow possible east of US-1 with accumulations less than 1 inch. Rain or snow, no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: RAH is saying light snow possible east of US-1 with accumulations less than 1 inch. Rain or snow, no mixing. They will likely be wrong then. The 3km nam is showing sleet, snow and zr transition areas in addition to rain. It is king at finding warm noses and delineating p-type too. It would not be a good decision to ignore it’s output and go with the either rain or snow shown by the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just fractions separate the 6z NAM v/s 0z GFS/UK. The 6z GFS was closer to the 6z NAM but still not the NAM. Not good when your only hope is the phase happy NAM after 48 hours. The changes we need (early phase) is within 48 hours now, would think if if it's going to happen other models need to start showing it, otherwise it should be a nice event for the coastal Carolinas. Top row is NAM/GFS/UK at 0z Wednesday Bottom row is NAM/GFS/UK at 12z Wenesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: They will likely be wrong then. The 3km nam is showing sleet, snow and zr transition areas in addition to rain. It is king at finding warm noses and delineating p-type too. It would not be a good decision to ignore it’s output and go with the either rain or snow shown by the globals. My guess is they are discounting the NAM's but yeah, FAY is freezing rain and not snow. ILM is rain on the 12km NAM. But that is a beefed up outlier. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kfay.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: NAM basically has a Snowacane for South Carolina.... Is it right? I doubt it, but maybe its right with the path... We will soon see. If it is right, , I only need about about a 25 more mile shift to at least see a little here. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if there isn't some light snow associated with the shortwave back over north ga. The main thing preventing it is a dry column From 850mb to the surface (figures that a system this strong would be so dry.) But the 06z nam is showing more moisture...even briefly showing snow reaching the ground in eastern Alabama). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: RAH is saying light snow possible east of US-1 with accumulations less than 1 inch. Rain or snow, no mixing. That's about as good of wording we could have from them at this point. Also that came out right before the latest NAM and RGEM. I would say we definitely have a chance at this point of some wintery precip, but still a larger chance of nothing at all. Just have to keep watching the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Snowing at SSI this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Allan Huffman had some interesting thoughts - basically thinks the 6z NAM is too amped but seems to be interested since high-res models can better capture some of the dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Look at the gradient between Columbia and Sumter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: My guess is they are discounting the NAM's but yeah, FAY is freezing rain and not snow. ILM is rain on the 12km NAM. But that is a beefed up outlier. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kfay.txt Yeah I’m expecting a transition zone somewhere of sleet and freezing rain if the nam is anywhere close to being accurate. The globals will be slow to catch up with phasing imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Yeah I’m expecting a transition zone somewhere of sleet and freezing rain if the nam is anywhere close to being accurate. The globals will be slow to catch up with phasing imo. Are you saying this storm is gonna be more ice than snow? I’m confused.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I haven't seen this product before since snow is so rare here. Calling for 1-3" on the SC coast. I would gladly cash in with that. http://www.weather.gov/chs/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, zacharylane3 said: Are you saying this storm is gonna be more ice than snow? I’m confused.... If the NAM depiction of the warm nose and a stronger system is correct there will definitely be more than just a rain or snow transition zone. There will be some sleet and freezing rain. Interestingly the RGEM seems colder aloft. Here are the 00Z RGEM ensembles at 72. They show a narrow transition zone of ice but usually the NAM is superior with warm noses to other models, especially the 3km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 What's the deal with the "CRAS?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: If the NAM depiction of the warm nose and a stronger system is correct there will definitely be more than just a rain or snow transition zone. There will be some sleet and freezing rain. Interestingly the RGEM seems colder aloft. Here are the 00Z RGEM ensembles at 72. They show a narrow transition zone of ice but usually the NAM is superior with warm noses to other models, especially the 3km version. That’s a lot of good members. And a lot of not so good ones. Trying to keep my hopes tempered, but some good signs to go along with the bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: That’s a lot of good members. And a lot of not so good ones. Trying to keep my hopes tempered, but some good signs to go along with the bad ones. We would love number 11 and 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow. NAM being the nam. However,Nice to see this far back west. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: What's the deal with the "CRAS?" The CRAS is always insanely far west. That actually is not far enough west if you want to see a big event in the MA or NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CRAS is always insanely far west. That actually is not far enough west if you want to see a big event in the MA or NYC I really think this storm belongs to the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I guess one thing for the NAM is that it was the farthest NW for the early Dec event. This was what the Euro had 72 hours out from start. Of course, that shifted 200 miles west. But, different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CRAS is always insanely far west. That actually is not far enough west if you want to see a big event in the MA or NYC Thanks. I figured as much but dang that's about as good a look as us Piedmont folks could get out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9z SREF just went up in a big way for RDU (won't post the individual view because some of the outliers are NSFW [not safe for weenies, like me]) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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