Cary_Snow95 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Looks just like the GFS so far Chaser is faster on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam already has a slp in Bahamas due to those rouge vort. That’s not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Nam already has a slp in Bahamas due to those rouge vort. That’s not good Patience let the run finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nam already has a slp in Bahamas due to those rouge vort. That’s not good 18z NAM did the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At 48 hours, the trailing wave is a smidge faster/closer to the lead, but not sure if it's all that much of a difference maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nam already has a slp in Bahamas due to those rouge vort. That’s not good That's why we don't use the NAM for tropical activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just me or did the low pop and sit and wobble a tad west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM at hour 54 definitely looks like a quicker phase starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Trend is obvious here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'd say the trough is neutral at hr 60 and phase is taking place. We'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Dont understand.... it looks like it phases far enough west, yet the Low looks east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Same position but a quicker phase at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Triple low at 69...if that early SLP wasn’t there in the Bahamas this would have been a raking for most of central Carolinas. Still eSC gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Dont understand.... it looks like it phases far enough west, yet the Low looks east again. Script tries to find the centroid. But it should be west of there it is in that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Triple low at 69...if that early SLP wasn’t there in the Bahamas this would have been a raking for most of central Carolinas. Still eSC gets hammered. Really, it's the LR NAM! Trends are great! Wait on GFS, see some continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Oh now this is getting fun. Very good trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I spy a negative tilt at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, SN_Lover said: Script tries to find the centroid. But it should be west of there it is in that frame. No...it tries to phase in that Atlantic energy and forms multiple lows so never consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pretty far west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looking at the H5 map as it came in, I really thought the surface would of looked better for central NC. Oh well, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: No...it tries to phase in that Atlantic energy and forms multiple lows so never consolidated. the model where the "L" is the lowest point in the model, but in reality there are multiple lows. GIS is complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, rduwx said: Looking at the H5 map as it came in, I really thought the surface would of looked better for central NC. Oh well, not sure. Look at h5 at 75...it phase with the Atlantic energy and not the norther stream trough. Everything shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Bombs to a 972mb low SE of ILM at 78. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM still has double barreled low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This might be chase worthy.... to Myrtle Beach or Charleston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like it phased in the gulf!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Are we in the timeframe for mesoscale models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Look at h5 at 75...it phase with the Atlantic energy and not the norther stream trough. Everything shifts east. Still a lot to figure out in the end of the run with all of those vorts moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The way this thing is heading NW with each model run I want to be about 150-200 NW of jackpot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Oh well guys... its sitting off the coast then for some reason goes due east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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