SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 A third SW comes in and kicks out the low OTS. Such a complicated pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 this is also the time/strength/position where the low would only trend stronger in the next few days, may close off faster though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: This might be chase worthy.... to Myrtle Beach or Charleston? Hopefully Myrtle beach is chase worthy. If it is, come here my wife and I will be attempting to drive to the beach if road conditions are ok. Looks like we may start as freezing rain though which we won’t be driving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Look at h5 at 75...it phase with the Atlantic energy and not the norther stream trough. Everything shifts east. I see that...strange. I'm not smart enough to know why...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Still a lot to figure out in the end of the run with all of those vorts moving through. Yep...I can’t recall an event that had that before but a little surprised such a weak h5 low cause such problems. But all models have this. That was a near perfect run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Saw a forecaster from the northeast say that the RGEM was good with the handling of multi-circulation features off the east coast (multi sfc lows), with the CMC decent as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This Nam run gets snow all the way back to the Triangle......so there is hope for you further inland guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just need a little bit more of a quicker phase and that last piece of energy to hang back, so it can be steared up the coast and not OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Trusting the NAM at 84hrs for precip. is usually overamp'd though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Saw a forecaster from the northeast say that the RGEM was good with the handling of multi-circulation features off the east coast (multi sfc lows), with the CMC decent as well Want to see a model get a low going in the gulf so that becomes primary over the already existing Atlantic low. Otherwise this forming east won’t be good for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We are truly on the edge of this thing going Kaboom for SC up to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 High Res NAM is further Northwest at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drscottsmith Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Light flurries (and I mean LIGHT) in Duncan, SC right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Trusting the NAM at 84hrs for precip. is usually overamp'd though right? No, not since the upgrade. I’ve seen a few pro Mets say since that it actually is on the low side of qpf in the extended, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: No, not since the upgrade. I’ve seen a few pro Mets say since that it actually is on the low side of qpf in the extended, if anything. Yeah the NAM has been much better the last year or so from 60-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM known to over amp but this would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This run of the GFS may not get it done. Trailing wave is a little further east through 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 66 a touch west, lets keep it going low positions were consistently sw until 78 we may need to get out there and push this thing west really a shame if we miss, reminds me a lot of a storm a few years back that was a downeastnc score if i remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC is much like the GFS. The fat lady is warming up for most of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Good luck coastal sc/NC. I think this is yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Unless something significant changes with the Euro, I think this will stay off the coast and give eastern areas a brush of snow... we are almost getting down to the point where significant changes are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 There is seemingly no set of atmospheric conditions that exist that can make that low form closer to the coast. We’re running out of time, even with all of these favorable shifts at the upper levels. None of the models are showing a surface that supports big snow inland away from the coastal areas, despite these improvements, baby steps, or whatever you want to call them. This thing could phase over Iowa and still have the low be just north of the Bahamas, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 When does this wave come onshore? tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: When does this wave come onshore? tomorrow? Tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 German model a good bit inland with precip, looks like back to RDU or just west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: German model a good bit inland with precip, looks like back to RDU or just west of there. Where do you find the German model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Where do you find the German model? http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=dwd_icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here’s the German model snow depth chart and qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Surprised no one mentioned the UK. The precip is WELL inland. Past rdu it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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