• Member Statistics

    16,681
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    zurn
    Newest Member
    zurn
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

Recommended Posts

The first thread was deleted by the original starter.  I believe there still needs to be a thread for this time frame.  The pattern looks good and the euro had small amounts of snow on January 3rd but in my opinion it was really close to a big dog.  I'm not sure if I can post my maps but if someone has access to the americanwx models, look at the 500mb map around hr 150 and post if you want.  Let the talks begin and hopefully we can reel in a storm.  Happy reading!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, both the Euro and Euro Ensemble Mean look pretty good for the late blooming system on Jan 3. CMC has it as well. It's too far off the coast on the GFS and it looks like the UKMet would be a miss as well.  Comparing the models, the ones that have the storm (Euro, CMC) have a taller western ridge.  The unicorn hunt continues

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Geez i almost dread following this one now after the last 2 went to crap. Is this our last good chance for a while?

What exactly is breaking the tall ridge down once these threats geat close?

And hey at least Nov and December were below normal temp wise!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, fritschy said:

Yep this was suppose to be our third of three winter storms and the first two disappeared, hate to get to excited just yet, :ee:

Exactly, as far as I'm concerned, I won't believe anything is gonna happen until two/three days out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS says nada- either New Years eve or 3-4. Not buying it right now, as stated above, the 27-29th threat disappeared, as did the NYE "storm". As we get closer the models are getting rid of these threats, hard to get a decent storm when we are basically in a WNW upper flow. Prolonged cold, yes- much if any snow, not seeing it at present.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 pieces of energy on the Euro that trying to phase together day 6, looks to be fun.  That's 2 runs of the Op Euro and EPS that support this and CMC/CMCE do too.

Quickly looked at the members...roughly half show an event in the Carolinas. 

ecmwf_vort_500_noram_132.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have the cold now and no moisture can get in, next week we'll warm up just enough then the moisture will pour in for a cold rain, go figure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, fritschy said:

We have the cold now and no moisture can get in, next week we'll warm up just enough then the moisture will pour in for a cold rain, go figure. 

can’t win for losing around here, normally we need a dominant high to our north but this time it butchers any storm that comes close

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

can’t win for losing around here, normally we need a dominant high to our north but this time it butchers any storm that comes close

that's what I'm talking about, perfect cold H pressure and we can't get the moisture in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What...the low forms down in the Bahama's.  That's got to be a first...a piece of energy diving over a PNA ridge in SW Canada spawns a low down in the Bahama's and rides up the east coast.  And I thought the new years threat was going to be tough.

eps_mslp_anom_noram_156.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

same old same old, the H pressure up north is to strong and next it will not be strong enough, the old thread the needle around here.  LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, packbacker said:

LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What...the low forms down in the Bahama's.  That's got to be a first...a piece of energy diving over a PNA ridge in SW Canada spawns a low down in the Bahama's and rides up the east coast.  And I thought the new years threat was going to be tough.

eps_mslp_anom_noram_156.png

there is a first time for everything

 

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

at least it is a slightly better look

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

there is a first time for everything

 

at least it is a slightly better look

Yep if we can get the NW trend to happen we're be in business. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. 

It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes.  But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow.   This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too.

sVCXIoU.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. 

 

I agree. Models are starting to line up. However, the norm over the last few weeks have been 3+ days does not equal anything on the models. Need to get something under the 3 day mark, IMO.  I guess someone needs to make a snow cake or start the old fashion snow dance. I know folks back in early December got some good Jeb walks in. We need a broad-wide Jeb walk out of this pattern!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes.  But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow.   This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too.

sVCXIoU.gif

Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still snipe hunting, it looks like.  But at least, if the OPs are to be believed (I haven’t checked the ensembles yet), we will get to continue hunting for at least the next 10-15 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS?

Edit:  just noticed, where is the thread for the Monday miss?

The control run is 6-8" over your area.  Odds are this probably misses wide right as that has been the theme with tomorrows threat and with Mondays threat.  But, when you are talking pieces of energy phasing together, that's what you want.

I wonder what would happen if the southern piece of energy was a little slower....it would probably take us out of it and jackpots 85 and points west.  Maybe 8 of the 20+ members that had snow showed that.  Which I guess is good percentage of the ones that hit (8 out of 24) but overall (8 of 51), seems low right now.

ecmwf_vort_500_conus_150.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.