HKY_WX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Probably the best chance I have had at a decent snow in a while, for us in the east its always better to worry the storm is to far east than to far west.....the Euro was 4-6" IMBY on this latest run not to shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Probably the best chance I have had at a decent snow in a while, for us in the east its always better to worry the storm is to far east than to far west.....the Euro was 4-6" IMBY on this latest run not to shabby. A little bit quicker phase and the euro drops 2 feet on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 There are 3 short waves that phase into the trough on the Euro and it has a closed off circulation over the southern apps at 168......but no snow for Mack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What's interesting is the majority of the snow falling on the euro run is w/ temps in the mid to low 20's. Ratios would likely be higher than 10:1. This is all fantasy discussion at this point, but it's fun to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Us beach folk gotta get some love too. Not gonna hold my breath though because day 5-6 threats for the last two weeks disappear for my area at around day 4. Here’s hoping this one brings snow to the coast, if not throughout the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: There are 3 short waves that phase into the trough on the Euro and it has a closed off circulation over the southern apps at 168......but no snow for Mack Sounds like there's too many ifs and butts to make snow for most of us!? I'm out cause , I can count times I've gotten precip, rain or snow, from a coastal storm in my entire life, on one hand. This may be great for Wilmington, but I'm sure the NW trend won't work this time! I love analogs and the 88 one! So magical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 12z eps mean is further west than the op. Of course I was hoping for the opposite but still worth watching imo. Edit: Sorry meant east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: A little bit quicker phase and the euro drops 2 feet on you. Yeah kinda reminds me of this one..... https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Dec231989EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 FWIW, Frosty's bestie, JB, says the storm will correct West! Says GFS bias of being too progressive, is at play now! So, expect cold and dry over ALL the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, rduwx said: The 12z eps mean is further west than the op. Of course I was hoping for the opposite but still worth watching imo. Why would we not want a West shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Any images? Sorry, I meant east of the op. My mistake. I'm not sure if I can post my maps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Why would we not want a West shift? Yeah, mistype on my part...Meant east. I was hoping for west and typed it...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Why would we not want a West shift? We want a west trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Image from Mid Atlantic forum. Good lord almighty that is a BEAST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 954 mb... lol wow.. Would be an epic blizzard and incredible wind and cold behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Image from Mid Atlantic forum. Good lord almighty that is a BEAST! Wow. So Strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Euro control run is a monster wow Euro bias here... we have seen the Euro blow up storms off the coast plenty of times. It never has worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah kinda reminds me of this one..... https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Dec231989EventReview That event brought 14 inches to Myrtle beach and was the only white Christmas in recorded history. Man would that be a treat to have something near that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I counted 12 out of 51 members that bring snow to the Carolina's, with the control run above the biggest run. The 0z run had 20+ members....the mean was cut in half and the SLP mean was obviously shifted SE. Going the wrong way as we try and get inside day 6...just like the previous 2 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I counted 12 out of 51 members that bring snow to the Carolina's, with the control run above the biggest run. The 0z run had 20+ members....the mean was cut in half and the SLP mean was obviously shifted SE. Going the wrong way as we try and get inside day 6...just like the previous 2 threats. I never thought we would escape this pattern without seeing a board-wide major winter storm. Now, I am beginning to wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: seems we are on our way to batting 0-3 Out of the three this one has by far the most red flags...which is why only 1 global shows anything of significance and minimal ensemble support. Biggest thing that would need to be changed IMO is the big low west of California needs to be further east and/or not be as strong, it's helps strengthen the ridge in the southwest not allowing that piece of energy to dig as far southwest. Though, I am sure there are other things we would need help with too. Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It looks like the JMA is a phaser, too. So the EC is not entirely alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Stole this from another forum...at roughly 108 if that piece of energy could dive down to say the 4 corners it would be doable...IMO. You can see the low off the west coast dying out as it approaches, if that could not be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: Out of the three this one has by far the most red flags...which is why only 1 global shows anything of significance and minimal ensemble support. Biggest thing that would need to be changed IMO is the big low west of California needs to be further east and/or not be as strong, it's helps strengthen the ridge in the southwest not allowing that piece of energy to dig as far southwest. Though, I am sure there are other things we would need help with too. Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west. "Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west." Mr Pack. I try not to pester people with too many questions but I am trying to learn some things. Is the "energy" you mention signified by the notable kink in the isoheight line in the eastern half of Montana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is by far the best shot weve,espeacilly everyone to my east has had at a big daddy in several years. 6 days out and you can't ask for a much better shot for a big daddy. Could end up whiffing,strike 3. But we are getting the pitch we want if you prefer to swing for the fences instead of base hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: "Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west." Mr Pack. I try not to pester people with too many questions but I am trying to learn some things. Is the "energy" you mention signified by the notable kink in the isoheight line in the eastern half of Montana? Thats correct...there is another piece that drops down day 5 just west of MN that is key. So we are way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This is by far the best shot weve,espeacilly everyone to my east has had at a big daddy in several years. 6 days out and you can't ask for a much better shot for a big daddy. Could end up whiffing,strike 3. But we are getting the pitch we want if you prefer to swing for the fences instead of base hit. Not to be a downer. But this is only 1 run that is showilng this out of several. All the other ones show a surpressed solution with the low being sheared. Let's wait for some consistancy before we celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Not to be a downer. But this is only 1 run that is showilng this out of several. All the other ones show a surpressed solution with the low being sheared. Let's wait for some consistancy before we celebrate. It's the 2cnd euro in a row. U look for model run to run consistency this far out using a model verse itself,along with its ens trends at H5. Espeacilly when it's the highest scoring verification model. You have a shot at a phase here in a supper fast flow,which is tough. The back wave that actually is dropping in and setting of the fireworks can actually speed up a tick like its been doing and catch the lead wave to cause a phase and make the trough turn neutral/ negative just 3 hrs sooner. The pivot will throw Atlantic moisture heavier back in the Carolinas and east Coast. Opposite can happen and it's late catching, phasing and only matters to the fish. Have to watch H5 and not surface to see the potential, then you'd understand better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: It's the 2cnd euro in a row. U look for model run to run consistency this far out using a model verse itself,along with its ens trends at H5. Espeacilly when it's the highest scoring verification model. You have a shot at a phase here in a supper fast flow,which is tough. The back wave that actually is dropping in and setting of the fireworks can actually speed up a tick like its been doing and catch the lead wave to cause a phase and make the trough turn neutral/ negative just 3 hrs sooner. The pivot will throw Atlantic moisture heavier back in the Carolinas and east Coast. Opposite can happen and it's late catching, phasing and only matters to the fish. Have to watch H5 and not surface to see the potential, then you'd understand better. Thats why the WPC went with a "slightly below average" confidence in the 12z GFS and ECMWF right? 2 model runs out of 100's does not constitue as consistant. Maybe if other models join the euro at 0z, then we can begin to ascertain the notion more. Making statments like "This is by far the best shot weve,espeacilly everyone to my east has had at a big daddy in several years." does not add value to 2 model runs of the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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