ajr Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 84hr NAM is oh so close... Can you post what you’re seeing? The energy from Canada looks further east going more towards NE Montana at hr 84 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Subtle, but out to hr 54 the ridge looks a little steeper over the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GSP AFD long term .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday...If you were hoping for some snow next week, prepare to have your dreams crushed. While the operational ECMWF has been interesting on the past two runs, developing low pressure over the nrn Bahamas and then moving it north while deepening on Wednesday, there remains only minimal support from the ensembles, and the trend (short as it is) is for the system to be farther east. The operational GFS has this development even farther offshore and keeps us even more bone dry. The greatest concern would be the eastern fringe, but the GEFS plume diagram off the 12Z run has only a half-dozen members that give CLT less-than-advisory level snow in the Wed-Thu time frame. That`s not a lot to hang your hat on. The remaining small possibility for wintry precip from this system would be if the trof axis is farther west thus bringing the low track closer to the coast. However, we have seen several times in the last two weeks where the guidance has a potential storm out on days 5-7 only for it to evaporate in the intervening time, leaving us with nothing but cold temps and high clouds. A slight chance of precip was inherited for the mid-week period, but have taken in out based on the model trends and weak support from the ensembles. The one item that was kept was the potential NW flow snow event Wed nite and Thursday. Both models show a fairly deep NNW flow that appears as though it might tap some Great Lakes moisture on Thursday, before that stream gets re-directed toward the central Appalachians late in the week. This was limited to a slight chance of snow for the time being, but there is a strong possibility the trend will be upward. Temps will remain below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 At hour 87 the precip field is a bit south from the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormsfury said: GSP AFD long term .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday...If you were hoping for some snow next week, prepare to have your dreams crushed. I wonder who worded this AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Sounds like gsp is reading the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 energy looks about the same at 96, maybe a tick slower but negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS out to 117 looks to me like it will be a little worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: High looks a tad stronger. We need that cold for the invisible snow!! 1041 over northern Texas. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It looks like the trough axis has moved a bit east and north but that still has not made a difference in the outcome so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The band Florida Georgia Line will like it, but that's about it on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 You know it’s a really bad pattern when you can’t even buy a fantasy storm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NW trend will start tonight mark my words. Noted. Hope you have another one-liner teed up admitting defeat when everything continues to "go south" on you....pun intended. Nothing is going to crack this cold dome until it is ready to relax and we see a true southern track redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not even a decent clipper in sight. How in the world does it snow up north near the polar vortex? We have a little bit of confluence in the NE and it crushes everything into oblivion. But they got confluence under the PV way up north and they get snow all the time. So bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NW trend will start tonight mark my words. Times like these you throw logic out the window. The H5 set up, as shown, will not allow that NW push. But, there is always another model run waiting in the wings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it’s a really bad pattern when you can’t even buy a fantasy storm on the GFS. Maybe not for you guys, but us coastal peeps are still watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ok, so just getting home from work and trying to catch up and grazing through some posts, this tuesday night/wed storm is trending more towards the coast? Seems like this is becoming the winter of suppression. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Maybe not for you guys, but us coastal peeps are still watching In this pattern, y’all need the storm shown over Arkansas at this point. That way, you might be on the northern fringes when the SE trend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: Ok, so just getting home from work and trying to catch up and grazing through some posts, this tuesday night/wed storm is trending more towards the coast? Seems like this is becoming the winter of suppression. Just wow. You’d have more fun if you stayed at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In this pattern, y’all need the storm shown over Arkansas at this point. That way, you might be on the northern fringes when the SE trend is done. I'm just gonna say that the other day I had some sleet pellets verify, tonight mby is now under a WWA, and as crazy as it sounds.....it wouldn't take much to turn this into something amazing at the coast for the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro already had the 2nd piece of energy at this point deep into MT/ND. That’s what...400 miles difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not even a decent clipper in sight. How in the world does it snow up north near the polar vortex? We have a little bit of confluence in the NE and it crushes everything into oblivion. But they got confluence under the PV way up north and they get snow all the time. So bogus. I'm currently visiting family up in MI and have been following the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley boards. Outside of the lakes, they don't really get THAT much snow, especially in the current pattern. There are areas in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that have hardly gotten more than a few inches dating back to December 2016. That is an unusually bad run for them, but it happens depending on the pattern. At my parents house we lucked out with a deepening clipper that gained some moisture content from the Lakes on Christmas eve, and at my sister's house it is 90% lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 JMA looks decent... dont know if this was a quick enough phase or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said: I'm currently visiting family up in MI and have been following the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley boards. Outside of the lakes, they don't really get THAT much snow, especially in the current pattern. There are areas in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that have hardly gotten more than a few inches dating back to December 2016. That is an unusually bad run for them, but it happens depending on the pattern. At my parents house we lucked out with a deepening clipper that gained some moisture content from the Lakes on Christmas eve, and at my sister's house it is 90% lake effect snow. And people love the EPO. It sucks! But seriously, yeah it hasn’t been a good pattern for a lot of the nation, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: JMA looks decent... dont know if this was a quick enough phase or not. No...it’s needs to be 300 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: No...it’s needs to be 300 miles west. Gotcha! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You’d have more fun if you stayed at work! Getting flashbacks on why I hated 2010 so much...Dec/Jan was well BN, we missed the blizzard to our west in Dec, we got the miller B sleet storm end of Jan and then we had to watch the MA get 300 inches of snow all while freezing our butts off for 3+ months. Hopefully if Mother Nature has mercy on us we blow torch after mid Jan through spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Getting flashbacks on why I hated 2010 so much...Dec/Jan was well BN, we missed the blizzard to our west in Dec, we got the miller B sleet storm end of Jan and then we had to watch the MA get 300 inches of snow all while freezing our butts off for 3+ months. Hopefully if Mother Nature has mercy on us we blow torch after mid Jan through spring. Bitter much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, HKY_WX said: What's interesting is the majority of the snow falling on the euro run is w/ temps in the mid to low 20's. Ratios would likely be higher than 10:1. This is all fantasy discussion at this point, but it's fun to think about. HKY, We live in one of the toughest places on the planet to forecast weather in...THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC, so EVERYTHING in terms of Snow is ALWAYS Fantasy for us. Besides...this is the BERMUDA TRIANGLE for snowfall bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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