griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Agree with burrel that the NAM looks horrid. Let's see what the globals show though. Still think there's an outside chance for the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor? gfs looks a bit better w the energy at 78, prob a miss still but hopefully it gets the coast in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 how is the gfs handling the vort over the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 not going to do it, bombs away ots again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC is west with the precip, but just barely skims the NC outer banks with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor? gfs looks a bit better w the energy at 78, prob a miss still but hopefully it gets the coast in play Germany didn't bomb Pearl Harbor.... Japan did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Germany didn't bomb Pearl Harbor.... Japan did. ...It's from Animal House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Germany didn't bomb Pearl Harbor.... Japan did. ...it is a movie quote. animal house. and gfs at 114, all that moisture just offshore. painful to see it so close for the coastal folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GFS with a few flakes at Cape Hatteras lighthouse 123-129...but pretty much same as last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UKMet has the low over Cape Cod area at 144, well west of the previous run. Hard to tell what happened before that, but it has a deeper phase this run. Could be some Carolina coast precip on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yeah, being on the coast, I never really root for much of a northwest trend. Except this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 19 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet has the low over Cape Cod area at 144, well west of the previous run. Hard to tell what happened before that, but it has a deeper phase this run. Could be some Carolina coast precip on it. Yeah, it looked like a full latitude neutral tilt at about 82°W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 The 0z gefs mean looks to be a little west of past runs. The trough looked better imo and appears to go neutral a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pretty good West shift on the GEFS in QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: Pretty good West shift on the GEFS in QPF How far west? You mean actually over a land mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Pretty good West shift on the GEFS in QPF Any snow amounts at the coast? Does anyone have member images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: How far west? You mean actually over a land mass? Yes. The .1 QPF line runs to nearly central NC, where the 18z had that line confined to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: CMC is west with the precip, but just barely skims the NC outer banks with light snow Looks like some light snow for the Louisiana Mississippi River Delta south of NOLA on the CMC, as well. Snow chase to Pilottown, LA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet has the low over Cape Cod area at 144, well west of the previous run. Hard to tell what happened before that, but it has a deeper phase this run. Could be some Carolina coast precip on it. UKMET further West on the 00Z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I don't think the NAM is that awful. All the models have a strung out trough there. The key is what happens after that. Not sure I trust its upper levels anyway. I mean, it's just from the GFS boundary conditions (18z presumably), so is it really telling us anything new about what's going on over the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 00z Euro out to 72 looks like it could be more improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 25 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: UKMET further West on the 00Z run: And what's that in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro looks good. Really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Definitely improved EURO but need quite a bit more for a decent hit. Far Eastern NC looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Definitely a good trend, with plenty of time to keep coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Definitely a good trend, with plenty of time to keep coming west. What if the trough/confluence in the lakes and NE is so strong, at go time, it's forcing the shortwaves farther S and W!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Definitely a good trend, with plenty of time to keep coming west. Most of that is ice and sleet in E NC, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: What if the trough/confluence in the lakes and NE is so strong, at go time, it's forcing the shortwaves farther S and W!? Even today's storm was further north and west than it looked a few days ago. But it was already such a long shot that it didn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Most of that is ice and sleet in E NC, correct? Always A buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro phases about 12 - 18 hours earlier and a lot of folks are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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