griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 47 minutes ago, griteater said: The UKMet run... The shortwave trough here on the UKMet that extends just east of Maine and down off the New Jersey coast, last night's Euro has this a bit west, extending from E Mass to off Deleware. Just looping through the 500mb charts, that looks like a key feature. The quicker that trough exists (along with the pressing heights down south of there off the mid-atlantic coast), the more room the southern plains wave will have to sharpen and phase. The UKMet is more favorable in this regard (quicker to exit the NE trough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro out to 72, it's a little farther east with the NE trough, but not as good as the UKMet (not as far east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like to me this is going to take a step west, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looks like to me this is going to take a step west, we'll see Def further west than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UK had the 2nd wave much further south at 72 then Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Out to 87, it's phasing a little quicker this run (shortwaves over the plains are closer together) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At 99, light snow or mix in SE GA...light snow almost back to Columbia, snow or mix along SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Close to a big dog? Yes. Yes, it is. Continue to trend the trough axis a bit more west and a little quicker phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At 102, precip still back to Columbia and now into Wilmington. 850 0 deg supports snow....sfc is above freezing on the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At 105 - precip a little SE of Columbia and Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 43 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here is the UK for those interested. It's a bomb. When is that strip of precip over NE GA and W NC falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At 108, precip still SE of Raleigh. Snow or mix east of there. This run is a little west overall, but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, griteater said: At 108, precip still SE of Raleigh. Snow or mix east of there. This run is a little west overall, but not by much Need a quicker phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro is east of GFS it looks like. That was a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Euro is east of GFS it looks like. That was a letdown. But precip farther west, hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: But precip farther west, hmmm Swing and a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC a little further NW but not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Probably the best storm signal at this point is Wow posting more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Swing and a miss... But better than 24 hrs ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UK has the tightest spacing at 72 hours, Euro was the biggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: UK has the tightest spacing at 72 hours, Euro was the biggest. Looks similar to the NAM at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Maybe we get lucky and end up with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Looks similar to the NAM at 72 I guess the optimist on this would say 24 hours ago no models showed anything...threat was almost dead. Today 2 global models showed big hits all the way back to central Carolinas and the other global showed eastern Carolina's snowfall. And the GEFS showed 9/20 members with solid hits. But, 0z EPS had 5 members with snow that was really just confined to eastern most NC. Need a better EPS run shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Well EPS mean SLP is west of of the Op at 108....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well EPS mean SLP is west of of the Op at 108....hmmm Kinda had the feeling that would happen lol, especially with some of the big shifts in multiple model suites. Good to hear Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 More then half the members have atleast some snow in eastern Carolina's...many of those are really light but still counted them. Roughly 12 get it close to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: More then half the members have atleast some snow in eastern Carolina's...many of those are really light but still counted them. i know it has been said but even minimal qpf will result in decent accums with the high ratios. every little bit counts. it is promising that we are still a ood ways out and there is plenty of time for qpf to come west. we have always been screwed with the nw trend, it owes us one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Fear the NW trends. It always happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GGEM ensemble are out...SLP members at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 eps shifted west with qpf, coastal sc/nc in a great spot right now. .3" right offshore chs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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