powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: It’s a lot better at 500. Yes it is. The UL jet structure looks slightly better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 How does the 12z NAM At 500 compare to the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, rimetree said: And that was a mis speak meanIng 12z euro from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wow.... the CMC is a huge hit... I doubt mixing would make it off the cape in that solution... but verbatim... the model showed mixing for SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Based on the digging northern stream there I think it still struggles to bend the surface nw. typical gfs reflecting the surface along the convection path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This is what we want, Keep sharpening that northern stream so it digs further south to get this to tilt more towards the coast once it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Heading towards Jan 15 folks. Not exact qpf placement for those (me) that were burned..so dont cry yet out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Heading towards Jan 15 folks. Not exact qpf placement for those (me) that were burned..so dont cry yet out west. This does remind me of that a little... this looks probably less prolific than that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Pit2-Jeff ftw. 3.9* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The giveaway that the CMC is going to change is that is currently has GON with the jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: The giveaway that the CMC is going to change is that is currently has GON with the jack. Hey now... miracles can happen. Although having never been the jack ever...I wouldn't bet on it. Even the blizzard of '78, as awesome as it was for me in Waterford, CT, we didn't jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hard to believe we rain with that track on the CMC. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yes it is. The UL jet structure looks slightly better too. Good snows back to NY state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ding dong , the witch is dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Oh Canada we stand on guard for thee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC has waffled between robust solutions at 12z and drier solutions at 00z for the last 4 runs, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UKMET appears to be a decent hit for SNE. Its a total miss for almost everyone else and probably even western parts of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET appears to be a decent hit for SNE. Its a total miss for almost everyone else and probably even western parts of MA I guess you should say 'most of SNE'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Weird looking storm. Seems like the southern stream low will remain separate and offshore but there's a sh*t ton of UL forcing over us as the northern stream digs and eventually closes off. The ECMWF overnight looked a lot like the 12z GGEM with that band of heavy precip well removed from the offshore low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Hard to believe we rain with that track on the CMC. Interesting It showed rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Hard to believe we rain with that track on the CMC. Interesting I doubt that would be rain... and I’m as pessimistic as they come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Weird looking storm. Seems like the southern stream low will remain separate and offshore but there's a sh*t ton of UL forcing over us as the northern stream digs and eventually closes off. The ECMWF overnight looked a lot like the 12z GGEM with that band of heavy precip well removed from the offshore low. Yea noted the same thing. Didn’t we see something similar to that with last year’s bomb that dumped 30”+ in western NYS while the southern stream low passed over SE MA? I think it was around 970 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Don’t talk like that Please follow along. I’m talking with regard to forcing only; not track obviously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 One thing to realize when reading our Wilmington legend Ray: he's rooting for the big boy. 6"? He wants the full organ grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I would say the GFS has most of the cards on the table by 12z tomorrow, but it does shoot a kicker shortwave onshore in the Yukon 12z Tuesday. I think that's our window. If we don't have something then, punt. But I would think we have a clearer picture in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Waiting on QPF maps but UKMET looks like a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would say the GFS has most of the cards on the table by 12z tomorrow, but it does shoot a kicker shortwave onshore in the Yukon 12z Tuesday. I think that's our window. If we don't have something then, punt. But I would think we have a clearer picture in 24 hours. yeah.. was just gonna mention that the intermediate stream mechanics for that whole ordeal is just is only getting ejected out of that elongated SPV over the N pac; this run in some respects is just as dicey as any up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Waiting on QPF maps but UKMET looks like a huge hit Yeah, I looked at the individual panels, I would like to heave seen where that low was at hr 108, Just looking at where it is at hr 120, It would have to have been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. was just gonna mention that the intermediate stream mechanics for that whole ordeal is just is only getting ejected out of that elongated SPV over the N pac; this run in some respects is just as dicey as any up to this point. By my estimation, the "southern" stream shortwave is the swirl over BC right now, the northern stream is trucking along south of the Aleutians. But there are still some pieces, like north of Nunavut that will come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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