jbenedet Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 FWIW, the final outcome on the 12z NAM will be better. What is probably the only thing worth noting regarding NAM at this point is through 48–deeper southern stream shortwave, stronger PNA ridge and less confluence over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: FWIW, the final outcome on the 12z NAM will be better. What is probably the only thing worth notin regarding NAM at this point is through 48–deeper southern stream shortwave, stronger PNA ridge and less confluence over the northeast. I guess the PNA ridiging doesn't matter according to the model sensitivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess the PNA ridiging doesn't matter according to the model sensitivity. Yeah it doesn't seem to be controlling the outcome quite like the main shortwave and Atlantic ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Yeah it doesn't seem to be controlling the outcome quite like the main shortwave and Atlantic ridging. Is the model sensitivity a produce that we have access to, or is it VIP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess the PNA ridiging doesn't matter according to the model sensitivity. Yea I saw a bit on that earlier. My personal take is it will help out indirectly, by amplifying our southern stream shortwave faster/earlier in turn allowing for better downstream UL height rises and a track further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Northern stream looks a lot better on 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Yea I saw a bit on that earlier. My personal take is it will help out indirectly, by amplifying our southern stream shortwave faster/earlier in turn allowing for better downstream UL height rises and a track further west. Don't disagree....def. can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is the model sensitivity a produce that we have access to, or is it VIP? I think you can view the NCEP part of it, the rest is password protected. http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html I would recommend starting with these two articles before really diving into it: http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Extras/HowToNavigate.html http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Extras/HowToInterpret.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Yea I saw a bit on that earlier. My personal take is it will help out indirectly, by amplifying our southern stream shortwave faster/earlier in turn allowing for better downstream UL height rises and a track further west. You are on the further west train? I am as that's how these have been working out lately. But who knows...for me the signal has been that this goes due north or even hooks on a lot of runs. That might mean the precip field doesn't escape east so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I’ll be happy with 6”. Anything to help welcome the arctic onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think you can view the NCEP part of it, the rest is password protected. http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html I would recommend starting with these two articles before really diving into it: http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Extras/HowToNavigate.html http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Extras/HowToInterpret.html Is model sensitivity something that has a high degree of variance across the pantheon of guidance? Ie, Sensitivity on the GFS beinh different from that of the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nam looks way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be happy with 6”. Anything to help welcome the arctic onslaught. 6” is the cutoff, to me, for a meaty snowfall. Then getting that arctic blast over the snowscape would really top it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be happy with 6”. Anything to help welcome the arctic onslaught. Agreed. 6” would allow me to telecommute too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be happy with 6”. Anything to help welcome the arctic onslaught. Yup . 3 or 6 or 10. It’s all good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Nam looks way better Night and day with northern stream, lead energy around the northern vort really held back and dug south, influences our southern vort faster, influencing in turn the trough axis, we gotta sample this energy, I’d bet we see every solution under the sun till Tuesday 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Nam looks way better It was a good predictor of the trend last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't disagree....def. can't hurt. I’m def hedging that guidance is under-amplifying the southern stream shortwave. So we’ll get some help there. But at the same time I don’t want to see the consensus shift any further east here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: I’m def hedging that guidance is under-amplifying the southern stream shortwave. So we’ll get some help there. But at the same time I don’t want to see the consensus shift any further east here... Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be happy with 6”. Anything to help welcome the arctic onslaught. Happy New Year to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is model sensitivity something that has a high degree of variance across the pantheon of guidance? Ie, Sensitivity on the GFS beinh different from that of the euro? Because you're looking at sensitivity of the ensemble to certain features, you don't really find a difference in absolute values across ensemble systems. Basically, the features may be handled differently from the GEFS to the EPS but they will each have a comparable sensitivity to those features. Ideally, you would like to see the variance be explained by the same features across the ensemble systems, but it doesn't always happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup . 3 or 6 or 10. It’s all good snow Don't know where the 2 days to get 8 inches came from, Euro charts show snow starting 1000 am Thursday with accumulating snow ending Friday early AM probably 14 to 18 hrs. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 84 hr nam looks tasty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol actually on my phone on my deck, it's 3 degrees the snow is sparkling like Diamonds in the Sun. I already had looked at U wind. Also PWAT , 250 wind. Probabilities of .5 are 50% all the way to you. You qpf queens need to start learning ratios. Pretty well versed in ratios up this way... I don't think of this discussion as negative, just sometimes hard to go between wishcasting or blind statements (not you by any means Ginxy)... to be like yeah it's going to dump big snows back to Albany with a low moving 500 miles east into Nova Scotia just because there's an Arctic airmass in place seems interesting. Now you can't rule out much larger snows in central/western New England but I think it would be because the surface low and the whole shebang track further west...not because the models are failing to see the moisture at the current track. Also if I'm in Eastern New England, I'm getting ready to shovel snow so opinions often matter depending on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Pretty well versed in ratios up this way... I don't think of this discussion as negative, just sometimes hard to go between wishcasting or blind statements (not you by any means Ginxy)... to be like yeah it's going to dump big snows back to Albany with a low moving 500 miles east into Nova Scotia just because there's an Arctic airmass in place seems interesting. Now you can't rule out much larger snows in central/western New England but I think it would be because the surface low and the whole shebang track further west...not because the models are failing to see the moisture at the current track. Yea for sure. Dude I pulled a 30 to 1 last night, .05 for 1.5. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't know where the 2 days to get 8 inches came from, Euro charts show snow starting 1000 am Thursday with accumulating snow ending Friday early AM probably 14 to 18 hrs. We take Ok, 1.5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I remember somebody making fun of somebody when rhey suggested they would check back on Tuesday once everything is sampled We did but then that someone checked back in within like 2 hours lol. If you gonna “wake me up Tue night” it then go to bed and quit bitching until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ok, 1.5 days. That's 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just checked the Euro and it's looking good for Thurs and beyond. Also if anyone has been checking, meso-vortex near superior. Looking good so far. i have been up at Tug Hill in the Adirondaks this week and the snow is just piled up here a beautiful sight, something everyone on this forum could appreciate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 84 hr nam looks tasty!!! Agree, dont know what happens after that but thats a digging vort in the SE at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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