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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The northern stream digging back helps but still not enough for full blown solution. If we can keep that going and get a better war, it can work. Still not terrible atm just not ideal.

Remember what I said about N stream energy this season relative to modeled intensity before coming ashore.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Remember what I said about N stream energy this season relative to modeled intensity before coming ashore.

Yea. Tbh, Im not trusting guidance at d5 while the pieces are still lobing around in a sparse data region. I think in 48hrs, it will be a full go or a glancing blow. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d still like to see it closer... this seems like a precarious setup with the low so far away.. I mean... the end result is still decent snow... but I don’t feel great about it.

I tend to agree with Iceberg though... I think this is pretty much an all or nothing deal.

We need it to come closer, yea....8" over two days wouldn't do much for me it verified, which it probably wouldn't without the low coming closer.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need it to come closer, yea....8" over two days wouldn't do much for me it verified, which it probably wouldn't without the low coming closer.

Yeah... I’ll take 8” any way I can get it at this point.. but I think your right... something has got to give. If I was simply looking at the placement of the storm.. I would have assumed it was a miss.

 

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Just now, weathafella said:

We’ve had drawn out storms of 6-10 but this setup does kind of scream all or none as others have said.

It definitely can happen, for sure. I’m selling on that though... I doubt a multi day moderate snowfall is the end result.

A pretty big hit.. or basically a whiff is my guess. 

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