moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said: FWIW... NAVGEM Boy, I wonder what the "Classified" version looks like..... Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Boy--what a waste of an ensemble spread that is. Pick a card, any card. If I were to be at Pit2, I'd be much more interested in this. I hope eastern folks can cash in. 12z runs will be interesting for sure. 1.3* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: that is really the track most of the forum needs...maybe 50-75 mi east is ok too.....I really think this one is slipping away though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It seems like some posters here are gonna be upset with a nice 6-10” snowfall.. which is what most of NE is looking at. What more couid you want or did they expect from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: that is really the track most of the forum needs...maybe 50-75 mi east is ok too.....I really think this one is slipping away though Nothing screams nw trend has begun, yet. Only way it does is the grab and yank left scenario but relying on that is like a 1 in 25 shot maybe. So yea, the big solutions for west zones are thinning out but we still have good chance at warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This will throw good snows way west into NY state. Nice set up for that. Only thing left to figure out is if big big snows stay offshore or come onshore Interesting that the set up is nice for good snows back into NY state. I'm hoping you can steer it that way with a hope and a prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It seems like some posters here are gonna be upset with a nice 6-10” snowfall.. which is what most of NE is looking at. What more couid you want or did they expect from this? Well, it’s not everyday we can say hello to a 950ish low in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, they're like the track of the Euro from Wed/Thur. Tossed. You toss, I hang my jimmy hat on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Okay. Step back. So we had a big signal 2-3 days ago. It disappeared for a cycle or two then came back strong. Now shifted east a bit. Not uncommon in western Atlantic storms. Today 12z might look like 0z but I think the overnight runs tonight will tell the direction this could head because isn't the day sampling better tonight? And then there's Chris 's sensitivity thing. Let's see the conversation we are havin early tomorrow afternoon. I think all of new England has a good shot for advisory and half of is for warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 And strong storms do tend to come west a bit. Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: And strong storms do tend to come west a bit. Boxing Day. Unfortunately, fast flows lead to progressive troughs where you need everything to line up to get it nw and tilted favorably. Boxing Day had tremendous help from atl blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Interesting that the set up is nice for good snows back into NY state. I'm hoping you can steer it that way with a hope and a prayer. Same as always.. you’ll whine and complain that SNE gets all the snow and then act surprised when Stowe wrings out 8” of fluff. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The issue I see for people further N & W is we have seen a subtle shift E in the tough axis and orientation of it. Unless we see this trend reverse I don't think we see any solutions like the Euro showed on Wed/Thur with a track up over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I agree Bob this is an eastern New England snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree Bob this is an eastern New England snowstorm Easy there tiger or you’ll get a 950mb low over you head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Same as always.. you’ll whine and complain that SNE gets all the snow and then act surprised when Stowe wrings out 8” of fluff. Enjoy Maybe, I guess you're just doing the opposite and assuming it will happen regardless of any model output. I think it's just you keep mentioning the set up without any further info so we are curious what that set up is... or is it nothing meteorological and more a spidey-sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree Bob this is an eastern New England snowstorm Not what I am saying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Maybe, I guess you're just doing the opposite and assuming it will happen regardless of any model output. I think it's just you keep mentioning the set up without any further info so we are curious what that set up is... or is it nothing meteorological and more a spidey-sense. Visions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Visions. To his defense if you look at the Euro Kuchie maps it's so cold out that it has BTV with 20" and the highest total in New England from this storm...off like 0.3-0.4" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To his defense if you look at the Euro Kuchie maps it's so cold out that it has BTV with 20" and the highest total in New England from this storm...off like 0.3-0.4" QPF. As you know i don’t use or focus on qpf until day of event. You’re throwing a ton of easterly inflow generated by a massive ocean storm over a Siberian airmass . It’s going to snow way way way west from that . Regardless of what x qpf map shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To his defense if you look at the Euro Kuchie maps it's so cold out that it has BTV with 20" and the highest total in New England from this storm...off like 0.3-0.4" QPF. Maybe, not familiar with your micro climate up there but here .5qpf would be like 5” even if kuchie says 10”. screaming n winds slidding down the berks and litchfield hills will always eat into my ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big time concern with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As you know i don’t use or focus on qpf until day of event. You’re throwing a ton of easterly inflow generated by a massive ocean storm over a Siberian airmass . It’s going to snow way way way west from that . Regardless of what x qpf map shows I hope your right if the track stays where it is that there's a lot more significant moisture transport deep inland. Need to get that easterly flow going a bit better. Wonder what the U-wind anomalies are as that might be the first place to see how much easterly inflow there would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Big time concern with that look. While it looks that way based off pressure centers. mid levels on gefs mean are actually west of the op and it has a more ‘tuck’ component. The mean has a much better commahead, it doesnt stay compacted as the surface plots suggest....and races ene. This is probably due to the rogue tucked in members but sometimes you need a few of them to provide possibilities. Ask PF about rogue sref members in March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I hope your right if the track stays where it is that there's a lot more significant moisture transport deep inland. Need to get that easterly flow going a bit better. Wonder what the U-wind anomalies are as that might be the first place to see how much easterly inflow there would be. Imagine if there were a way to look up U wind, that would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Imagine if there were a way to look up U wind, that would be cool Haha thanks Ginxy. Actually that -2 to -3 SD anomaly area looks about where one would expect the best chance for decent moisture inflow. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 A lot of depressed posters. EURO was warning snows past the River. Others showing good hits too. WTH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha thanks Ginxy. Actually that -2 to -3 SD anomaly area looks about where one would expect the best chance for decent moisture inflow. Good stuff. Lol yea CT River East but ratios West . That even smaller SD inflow can be prodigious in Arctic airmasses as you well know. One reason I discount GFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 hours ago, dendrite said: Chris said the ensemble sensitivity showed little to no effects from the western ridge. The only ridging that really mattered was downstream. 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha...I missed that. Yeah, the commonality our deeper and further west solutions have is they are consistently deeper southern stream and higher ridging in the Atlantic than the ensemble mean. I guess it is a little odd, since this is mainly a winter product, that they don't have anything under 546 dm to look at for 500 contours. Makes it impossible to see the northern stream in an air mass like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha thanks Ginxy. Actually that -2 to -3 SD anomaly area looks about where one would expect the best chance for decent moisture inflow. Good stuff. Hes drinking his spiked coffee with like 8 monitors, pulling up maps like its nothing. Just weenie grinding away. hes like a pro online poker player playing 12 tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I’m confused by some of the negative posts. Decent chance for many to get a moderate event. Slight chance of a big event. Could it go OTS? Sure, but not a terrible look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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