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About UlsterCountySnowZ

  • Birthday 07/11/1988

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  1. Gotta say, despite being a ways out, Im happy with today’s trends, a slower more amplified overall solution allowing that northern stream SW to influence the trough, coupled with more progressive confluence, leads to some nice northward adjustments, the vertically stacked nature means we need more favorable Upper level wind otherwise we sheer our precip shield...a lot of time for this to creep up
  2. with the AO on the rise and gaining by this weekend, the first wave should lift a bit quicker than currently modeled, allowing for a quicker drop of the retrograded SW to dive down into the CONUS and orientate our trough neutral, and just maybe Neg, the southern stream seems to be just fine with intensity/location, and models have been trending more amplified in that regard, i wouldnt be making any bold claims in either direction just yet, until we see how the friday wave is panning out come thursday mornin into Fri, this has last min bump north written in Dark ink
  3. i understand that, but you specifically said interior...the interior with those soundings is not gonna be 7:1..... i just snowed at 34 degrees and marginal 850 and accumulated 19" no problem
  4. whats your reasoning on interior, ill take my area for example...16F tonight, high of 33 tomorrow, then 26 tomorrow night, then just up to freezing WED, then snow falls at 28F.....with 850s at -5+... i dont think the grounds gonna have a cooling issue
  5. if you look at mid/upper levels and understand why the gfs evolved as it did, it was actually an improvement where it matter
  6. 12z was better imo...a small step back this run, not much changed for coast, but those in far NE pa and a tad further whiff
  7. if i got paid for every time models overamped eastern convection, pulling our best dynamics with it, id be rich...usually its the cause for our double barrel looks in this model range, never pans out imo
  8. the small trends mentioned above leads to our lead SW escaping a bit, no biggie, the trend to be admired is our orientation...MUCH better once again
  9. focusing and hoping on the wrong wave imo....id prefer a sheared first wave, with the follow up every aspect of the bigger solution trended more favorable on the GFS and icon.... look at the ridge/heights/confluence/ and trough as well as second wave....
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