Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's gone hundreds of miles east in the past 48-60 hours. I agree with Hippy...its maybe a real short term thing but aside from 2 model cycles that kicked this well east, there's no true trend developing looking at the 500mb level and even surface if you average out the past 48 hours. Heck 12z two days ago we were looking at the EURO running this thing over ORH. Meaning once it went east it’s corrected back west but as Will pointed out .. can’t come that much farther west with no block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Lol-freak vs SNE weenie nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This storm is going to lead some to their biggest melts of the year. You can just feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: This storm is going to lead some to their biggest melts of the year. You can just feel it. Your the 2nd person to say that. I have not seen anybody lock or say it's a 2015 storm. Pretty level headed response in here. I personally only like my EPS probabilities for at least 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Right now, There isn't much reason for any melts as this really is just brushing eastern areas, But if some allow themselves to get fully vested in an hr 132 depiction, Then they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I am rooting for the folk to the west of I-95 corridor. Hope it slams them, and it misses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol-freak vs SNE weenie nation. Bottom line the windshield wiper has trended west and deeper on all models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I have faith right now that it won't come as far west as everybody wants, it will reach about as close as 50 miles to the east of the benchmark, ridging out west is over the Rockies, not the west coast, and the troughing over the eastern US is east of James Bay, not over it or west of it, this storm is east bound, it can correct west some more, but not to the benchmark everyone hopes it will. If the models are close on strength east of the benchmark at around <955mb, then this will deliver the goods to western MA and CT and NYC 6"+ given the large circulation and strength of the super low. You won't need the benchmark track for significant snows. Also this doesn't occlude until north of Nova Scotia, Canada so it will be producing over 2' of snow along the first 100 miles west of the track. Just watch folks, the west trend won't last enough for a bm track, hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your the 2nd person to say that. I have not seen anybody lock or say it's a 2015 storm. Pretty level headed response in here. I personally only like my EPS probabilities for at least 3 Yea, I think there is subjective reading going on. Catching up, I only see the usual suspects showing their colors. Other than that, its a pretty level headed discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have faith right now that it won't come as far west as everybody wants, it will reach about as close as 50 miles to the east of the benchmark, ridging out west is over the Rockies, not the west coast, and the troughing over the eastern US is east of James Bay, not over it or west of it, this storm is east bound, it can correct west some more, but not to the benchmark everyone hopes it will. If the models are close on strength east of the benchmark at around <955mb, then this will deliver the goods to western MA and CT and NYC 6"+ given the large circulation and strength of the super low. You won't need the benchmark track for significant snows. Also this doesn't occlude until north of Nova Scotia, Canada so it will be producing over 2' of snow along the first 100 miles west of the track. Just watch folks, the west trend won't last enough for a bm track, hope I am wrong. You hope your prediction of 2' in your backyard is wrong? Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterLand said: I am rooting for the folk to the west of I-95 corridor. Hope it slams them, and it misses us. Hope it hits everyone!! Sucks being so close and not getting into it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I’ll be annoyed with that should it transpire. True, I'd expect more down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 48-60 hours ago the EURO was jackpotting KART and running the low over New England. That's west of where it is now. I'm no expert but these were more west than it is now (just grabbed from earlier in the thread). From December 28 12z run (48 hours ago from today's 12z runs). What did the 384 GFS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think the key is when and possibly if it turns north or northwest. I've seen storms that get tugged left but I've also seen storms that were progged to do it only to transition to a more northeast direction as we get closer in to go time. This will be interesting without a block as to wether dynamics can do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What did the 384 GFS show? Ha, it's probably in the thread. Joking on the model play out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 +Pna and phasing will tug this west, benchmark track seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Hope it hits everyone!! Sucks being so close and not getting into it.. Now with a small baby, my enjoyment for snow is not what it used to be Never been a fan of arctic cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 For @N. OF PIKE looks like a nice Rex block you preen for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, Hazey said: I think the key is when and possibly if it turns north or northwest. I've seen storms that get tugged left but I've also seen storms that were progged to do it only to transition to a more northeast direction as we get closer in to go time. This will be interesting without a block as to wether dynamics can do the job. Usually the man against cold and snow is saying that the NAO is diving negative because that is what the GFS deterministic forecast say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro control is 936mb into maine!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Has Ryan chimed in. He usually loves the monster storms. what is there about this system that the models are going sooo deep with. Got to be more than the arctic airmass. I mean there are some amazing bombs being thrown around. What is the max potential of a storm like this with this sorta S-N track. I mean say w a beautiful Northern stream capture and small stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has Ryan chimed in. He usually loves the monster storms. what is there about this system that the models are going sooo deep with. Got to be more than the arctic airmass. I mean there are some amazing bombs being thrown around. What is the max potential of a storm like this with this sorta S-N track. I mean say w a beautiful Northern stream capture and small stall. The southern stream going so far south definitely helps infuse extra baroclinicity. We're not just using moisture and antecedent temps over the waters off the mid Atlantic. We're dragging the high PWATs from the Bahamas into the warm conveyor. That's why on some of these solutions when the phasing is in sync, we see the crazy bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Has Ryan chimed in. He usually loves the monster storms. what is there about this system that the models are going sooo deep with. Got to be more than the arctic airmass. I mean there are some amazing bombs being thrown around. What is the max potential of a storm like this with this sorta S-N track. I mean say w a beautiful Northern stream capture and small stall. He’s probably playing it smart and staying out of this mess until things become a little more clear. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hey guys...the Euro maps are off limits again except for the one specifically from the weather.us site. The Maue maps that have weather.us watermarked are not allowed either...only the ones on Joerg's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I know the NAM sucks, but it was way slower with that southern s/w compared to the 18z NAM/GFS. The northern stream looks like shiat though. Thankfully the model is synoptically challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Yup way way different from 18z.. Guessing it has no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Unfortunately we still have a couple more days of the wiper effect with the models. Don’t think anything is off the table. Hopefully keep seeing some positive trends . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hey guys...the Euro maps are off limits again except for the one specifically from the weather.us site. The Maue maps that have weather.us watermarked are not allowed either...only the ones on Joerg's site. We should all thank Joerg for spending a small fortune on his site for free euro data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So maue site is now a pay site? That didn't last long.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: So maue site is now a pay site? That didn't last long.........lol “Home of the free euro”....... just 3 easy payments of 29.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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