Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not actually disagreeing with you. But I wasn't talking about the Sunday clipper. The frontal boundary has two different waves along it. Friday morning and another later Friday into Friday night. Both are weak and on most guidance hard to even separate. But I meant the second wave on the front was our better chance because the trough is sharpening up so the second wave has a better chance to amplify some. Runs that key on that instead of the Friday morning wave are the snowier solutions. I'm definitely not punting anything for that Sunday clipper that may or may not even be there. I hear what you're saying, and I recall us being in similar situations before...i.e., do we "root" for getting what we can with the first wave, or hope the 2nd one is (relatively) more significant and hope for that instead? At this point, maybe neither are that great in terms of amount of snow, but it's early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its no joke and definitely worth pointing out. That period really has looked solid for a while. I made 2 or 3 posts over the weekend (in the old thread) about the h5 look on both the GEFS and EPS for around the 15th. And it is still holding. I would remind Mitch that is the week I predicted the first widespread snow event for the MA, but I am sure he remembers, lol. And I would remind you that this is the 4th time you reminded me. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: And I would remind you that this is the 4th time you reminded me. Nah second, maybe third. And that wasn't an official reminder! If the weekend deal would continue to trend a bit more favorably it would be irrelevant. Unfortunately, it looks like the only place with a decent chance of seeing accumulating snow is the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 SREFS are west from what I see... if that matters at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, midatlanticweather said: SREFS are west from what I see... if that matters at all Our first Sref reference. Winter has officially arrived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Our first Sref reference. Winter has officially arrived! Someone shared with me.. so I had to share it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Someone shared with me.. so I had to share it! link to the SREFs? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Posting .01" snow maps wastes space and makes me want to kill myself. Please no more of those, a description is adequate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: link to the SREFs? Thanks. I think it is www.wishuponastar.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 so 18z NAM at hr 84 is > than the 15z SREFs? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Don't want to start mass panic or anything...but the EPS made a decided shift away from the strong -EPO late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: so 18z NAM at hr 84 is > than the 15z SREFs? Right? Right. Like how a dry turd is better than a wet steaming turd. I'm mildly optimistic about the storm in my neck of the woods (since the S VA thread never really got going) If we can hit the sweet spot, and get a heavy band going, the upside potential would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I was tuned out the last hour. Where are we? Someone open a panic room thread yet for winter 2018/2019 yet? ETA: Back to weather. Sorry. Happy hour started early(er). Hope the 18z GFS brings back the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Re the EURO weeklies from the SNE thread: 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They were locked in for the rest of the month. EPS supports them too...they show the next reload of the EPO starting 12/20 at the end of their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't want to start mass panic or anything...but the EPS made a decided shift away from the strong -EPO late in the run. I didn't mind the look. Epo goes more neutral or slightly negative but the pna is good still a -AO and the southeast ridge that tries to pop for a couple days is being beaten down by the eastern trough and another cold shot towards the end. I can even envision a 50/50 being hinted at by some of the runs within that mean look. Its not the greatest look ever but I would say it's still more good then bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: SREFS are west from what I see... if that matters at all actually, they look a bit east to me fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 fwiw, at 57 hrs on the 18z nam, the SE ridge is a bit stronger if you toggle between the 18z and the previous run of the 500mb vort, you'll see the heights are a bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It's very strange that this is showing up so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: It's very strange that this is showing up so suppressed. can we blame the warmth yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 by 63 hrs, it looks like the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: can we blame the warmth yet? It's almost 60 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: It's almost 60 degrees right now. In other irrelevant news it was 90 in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 nah, Nam is flatter than 12z edit: thru 75 hrs. at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 This all started going downhill fast once this thread was created Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: This all started going downhill fast once this thread was created It was a lost cause from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It was a lost cause from the get go. Sorta like my Fantasy Football Season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: I'm wondering how some of you folks survived in Dec 2015 Be well rounded. Have several hobbies. Watch with amusement as many get a running start worthy of the Olympics then take a spectacular leap. We're going to get our snow in DC this winter though. I never panic, even as the so-called "reaper" licks his chops as he longs and longs to dig a nice deep hole for The Jebman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 52 minutes ago, mitchnick said: nah, Nam is flatter than 12z edit: thru 75 hrs. at least Yes... but IMHO 84 looks interesting because of the closed h5 low in E WI and decent dig of the pretty potent southern vort in MS/LA Then again... its h5 at 84 hrs on the 18z NAM ETA: Pensacola Florida gets more snow than we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... but IMHO 84 looks interesting because of the closed h5 low in E WI and decent dig of the pretty potent southern vort in MS/LA Then again... its h5 at 84 hrs on the 18z NAM ETA: Pensacola Florida gets more snow than we do I do see what you mean about that if you just looked at that panel and nothing else you would think a big storm is going to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z GFS looks NW for sure 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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