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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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54 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

Totally agree.  Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out.  

TW

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18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Totally agree.  Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out.  

TW

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable. 

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3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

Most definitely. It's always a fine line between suppression and too warm around these parts. Definitely higher than average chances of something panning out in the advertised pattern, but no guarantee.

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