Waiting on snow Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 59 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%! You would be incorrect sir! Jan and Feb chances go up to 0.0013%! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Like the idea of a significant eastern US low around 12/1-2, details TBD... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 11 hours ago, WeatherNC said: Like the idea of a significant eastern US low around 12/1-2, details TBD... That would coincide with when the blocking would be relaxing some; definitely a time when storms tend to occur. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 That would coincide with when the blocking would be relaxing some; definitely a time when storms tend to occur. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml I agree. It seems that the best storms for winter weather occur more often than not when blocking starts to break down. At least that’s my perspective. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I agree. It seems that the best storms for winter weather occur more often than not when blocking starts to break down. At least that’s my perspective. . I second this Too strong of a block leads to extremely suppressed tracks (too far off the coast). The block breakdown is like a rubber band settling back in place, gives us a better chance, but at the same time if it relaxes TOO much the low comes too far inland. It is all about timing, all we can do is watch, wait, and pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 48 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I second this Too strong of a block leads to extremely suppressed tracks (too far off the coast). The block breakdown is like a rubber band settling back in place, gives us a better chance, but at the same time if it relaxes TOO much the low comes too far inland. It is all about timing, all we can do is watch, wait, and pray. Correct. Bob Chill has presented good commentary on this in the past. Can also be good for snow on the front end of blocking but seems to line up better for our area when it either relaxes or flexes. Prefer just enough flex to throw copious moisture into advecting (is that a word? ) cold air though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said: advecting From Marriam-Webster: Advecting: the usually horizontal movement of a mass of fluid (such as air or an ocean current) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Correct. Bob Chill has presented good commentary on this in the past. Can also be good for snow on the front end of blocking but seems to line up better for our area when it either relaxes or flexes. Prefer just enough flex to throw copious moisture into advecting (is that a word? ) cold air though. For the NE and Mid-Atlantic they probably do want the blocking to ease up a bit. For a winter storm in the SE, I do not. I hope we're blocked up from now until March 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 ^ I’m with mister snow niner. Full blocking all the time is the way to go at our latitude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: ^ I’m with mister snow niner. Full blocking all the time is the way to go at our latitude Yes sir. There’s a reason snowstorms like 1973 and 1989 only happen so often. I’ll take my chances on the blocking being too much and those happening because my odds are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, griteater said: ^ I’m with mister snow niner. Full blocking all the time is the way to go at our latitude Sign me up too. I'm hesitantly optimistic about this winter, but I'm concerned about the cold as usual. Doesn't look like anything very cold coming down the pike over the next two weeks or so, I'm only forecast to go below freezing once. That's ok now but by then I'm hoping to see better cold signs. Kinda bummed we're not getting a piece of the cold for tomorrow in the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Sign me up too. I'm hesitantly optimistic about this winter, but I'm concerned about the cold as usual. Doesn't look like anything very cold coming down the pike over the next two weeks or so, I'm only forecast to go below freezing once. That's ok now but by then I'm hoping to see better cold signs. Kinda bummed we're not getting a piece of the cold for tomorrow in the NE. Looks like we may have drank the kool-aid, for the awesome indices and cold December!? Not looking that amazing now! The smoke and mirrors voodoo, is alive and well! Looks normal for the next 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Looks below normal to me for central NC through next 7-10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks like we may have drank the kool-aid, for the awesome indices and cold December!? Not looking that amazing now! The smoke and mirrors voodoo, is alive and well! Looks normal for the next 10-15 days What are you looking at that makes you think this? If its the gfs 15 day generated forecast, i wouldnt put much stock into it. The euro will only get you out 10 days and thats just to Dec 1st. There is a lot of volatility right now as the global pattern is in transition mode. On the atlantic side it looks very encouraging and is what we want to see. Blocking AO and NAO going negative with alot of signs pointing towards us seeing both in the negative phase more so than the posotive for D,J,F. The Pacific is what the models are having a hard time figuring out long range. Need a pac Ridge to set up and more importantly position itself where the short waves, energy coming can space out better and have the opportunity to dig under us,phase with ns as opposed to having kickers pressing them along cutting to our nw or miller B ing off the mid atlantic coast. Id be very cautious in trusting anything LR on global models until the end of next week,. Once blocking is established and in place , working real time , then we'll be able to see if we can go up against climo and score an event. Just beacuse indicies are forecast to line up in holy grail fashion, doesnt gurantee a SEHS. Im always in the minority, but id rather have a posotive PNA locked in and entrenched over a neg NAO any day of the week ( if I had to choose between the two). Now if I lived futher north,in the NE then I'd be singing a different tune. Get me the cold and then ill worry about the moisture . With the modoki or low end moderate el nino, you average BN on temps across the SE moreso from clouds and above normal moisture not arctic outbreaks. We all should be encouraged from where stand at this point and time as oppossed to discouraged. In 2009-2010, the year of non stop winter tracking events. We didnt really get our 1st big event till the 3rd week of DEC and I got white rain without a trace while 10 miles up the road had 5 inches on the ground. Course both paled in comparison to the foothills,mtns. This year there is going to be a lot of events that are mixed bags and have very sharp cutoffs, leaving folks on the outside looking in. So brace yourself for more heartaches as oppossed to the couple of "Glory " outbreaks we will get to expierence. Use the eps, watch it twice a day LR and youll catch the trends, pulse better for what might or might not happen. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Pattern can produce if the Solar/QBO signal is favorable which it is.It can produce in early December just like it did in late March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Well the 12z GFS, is not worth giving thanks! That was ugly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Well the 12z GFS, is not worth giving thanks! That was ugly!! That’s why you should be thankful there is a fake version! It’s better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: That’s why you should be thankful there is a fake version! It’s better. Either way as long as it's not 70+ I'm happy right now. Chances are even with a great pattern we'd be on the outside looking in this early. Rather save it for later. With the NAO heading slightly negative toward neutral and PNA falling to near neutral long range it fits with a more average, boring zonal flow. The AO looks to remain negative throughout. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAO in LR looks to go back to neutral negative around Dec.3 before starting to drop again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Winter Weather Advisory up for the NC Mountains,Foothills,and NW Piedmont of NC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Cloudy and mighty cold in Winston-Salem. Feels like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 1:16 PM, Waiting on snow said: Either way as long as it's not 70+ I'm happy right now. Chances are even with a great pattern we'd be on the outside looking in this early. Rather save it for later. With the NAO heading slightly negative toward neutral and PNA falling to near neutral long range it fits with a more average, boring zonal flow. The AO looks to remain negative throughout. Yeah and the spread in the indices are pretty good also. I say let's get well into December to get a great pattern going. No need to rush things. Seasons in seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 For what it's worth, Dark Sky is forecasting 1-2" of snow here next Friday. Doubtful, but encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Merry Christmas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: Merry Christmas Looks all wrong to me. No cold to the NW and no blocking to the north and no 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 UKMET says big heating bills ahead 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 22 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: UKMET says big heating bills ahead We get both a -NAO and +PNA off of that... I will take it especially if the pattern repeats with these coastal lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, nchighcountrywx said: Ugh CFS is garbage so completely ignore it this time around... EPS had a garbage run so it is highly suspect, go look at the post Big Frosty put in the Sanatarium channel for a detailed outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don't know why all models are jumping ship because the El Nino has weakened on the surface, but it has strengthened in the subsurface. My research shows that the subsurface is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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