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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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1 hour ago, cg2916 said:

What I'm confused by is why 3k is showing snow depth for MBY even though the whole column is above freezing (or just at it, at best) the whole time?

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018111300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=

Use the Pivotal Weather maps for the NAM snowfall, they are much more accurate and use a better algorithm to distinguish between snow, ice and cold rain. The Tropical Tidbits maps have major issues on the NAM snowfall maps and can be very misleading in a setup like this. 

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I honestly couldn't tell you exactly what's going on with the TT snowmaps, but something is funky with how the algorithm is coded and it's producing a lot of spurious totals. Trash those maps. We're not getting any snow whatsoever with this system. 

We're familiar with the tropes surrounding CAD wintry mix events. They often (but not always) trend colder and stronger, especially at event onset when models have a very hard time modeling the in-situ nature of some CADs. I could see that happening a little here. Generally, this is still a pretty textbook look for a CAD wintry event and I'd be on my toes for a lot of folks in the Triad and along i77 to maybe Statesville to see advisory level sleet/ice accums. 

Now that being said, let's hold our horses just a little bit. If this were January, I think this would have potential to be a major ice storm for a lot of NC. But, fortunately, it's still only November, and these cold air lobes are still in their nascency. I don't like curtailing a forecast based on climatology, because that's bitten me in the butt before, but I think it's important to take a step back and realize that this is already a rare event for mid-November, and a colder, more expansive icy area is just making an already anomalous event *more* anomalous. One last thing to address- Some folks have rightly acknowledged that ice is a self limiting process, and I think that is a concern with this. I don't think that cold air advection will do the trick keeping things below freezing. In a CAD event, your cold air source is coming further north along the mountains. In this event, that air won't be fresh cold, dry air! In Greensboro, that cold air advection will be shuffling in air that has *already* had a lot of latent heat added to it from icing upstream! 

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Continuing the trends, 6z RGEM is uber cold as precip adverts northward between 45-54hrs. Has freezing rain all the way down the SW NC mountains. I can see the NWS offices are tepid with their forecasts, naturally so as it’s the 13th of NOV but guidance continues to suggest this being a moderate event imo, especially for NOV standards for a lot of the mountain and foothill regions of the area.

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Despite the cold rain in our area, hard not to get excited at the overall pattern... these kinds of storms would be nice hits for our area come late D into JF. 

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7 minutes ago, ajr said:

Despite the cold rain in our area, hard not to get excited at the overall pattern... these kinds of storms would be nice hits for our area come late D into JF. 

I will take a cold rain in November if it means blockbuster snow in Dec.-March

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13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Did the GFS snort crack? That clown map on the FV3 is ridiculous 

It's the Tropical Tidbits maps that are doing that. It's not showing up on other sites like that. Hopefully everyone is ignoring that mess

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong, and an Aleutian ridge appears at the same time for the first time since July. I think it could lead to a warmer December if verified, the way it tears apart the PV. 

FFF219CE-7A4E-47DD-BE14-B01F1C5AC2F4.jpeg.1e45bc7c664bc035c27437f9c9c8dc86.jpeg

looks pretty promising to me 

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14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. 

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

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14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

I am south of you by a few miles..... I am expecting about the same. Good signs for winter.

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Ugh I hate my new hours at work. Work until 9p. Please keep me up to date as to what’s happening guys. Crazy to see the RGEM coming in cold again. 

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49 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. 

We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...…..

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How about a mixed bag!

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds around
10 mph this evening, becoming light and variable. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph in the
afternoon. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain. Ice accumulation of up
to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Rain and freezing rain in the morning, then rain
likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow
showers, mainly in the evening. Little or no snow accumulation.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
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8 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...…..

Yes. Need to hope we hold onto sleet longer than projected. 

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