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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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576?!?! Holy crap!!! I had to do the math to figure that out 24 days out... yeah like that will happen... I’m as much a weenie as the next guy and I’d love it if it verifies... but I never knew any model ran that far out

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gibby said:

Not that it will verify, but its fun to see wintry precip show up. 

image.thumb.png.b388dc49ab704736eb6bee5a69790385.png

Hahah that is fun to look at but overall you just want to see the pattern setting up in our favor at this point.

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Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

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53 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

Here is your proof... Major score:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1057994334459584512

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Beggars can't be choosers, so if we get a back loaded winter I wont complain. I've read from other folks thinking this could occur as well.

But, I sure would love to see December start cold early. 

We just night get it, FV3 is hinting at 2 snow events for the mountains in the next 10 days

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8 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

NAO going positive. That's a shock!!!

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

NAO going positive. That's a shock!!!

Yeah, it being negative the last few days was a first in 6 months. We can only hope that this will start occurring more from this point forwards. 

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14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range.

I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

 

3DA9F5AA-478B-4AFF-A7C5-44B096431ED6.thumb.png.19f0e2e35f75a5e5d24cf3a270827ca6.png2295E357-3580-41FD-8501-3BC238421313.thumb.png.19717aa6201e5fefdb566ce9639d2fd5.png

I would love for the FV3 to be correct. But I'm just not buying it. It's an outlier, and it is hard to get my hopes up for anything before January knowing central NC climatology. I feel like we are due for an early snowstorm at some point, but until I see it with my own eyes, I have my doubts. 

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14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range.

I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

 

3DA9F5AA-478B-4AFF-A7C5-44B096431ED6.thumb.png.19f0e2e35f75a5e5d24cf3a270827ca6.png2295E357-3580-41FD-8501-3BC238421313.thumb.png.19717aa6201e5fefdb566ce9639d2fd5.png

Lol. Nice to see the FV3 still has the happy hour run this winter! Didn't want to lose that...

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At last I see a "slight" chance of light snow in the forecast here in the Triad next Sunday night.  But still a few 70° highs to endure this week before we get there.  Purely going by the "count of bugs trying to get in my house" forecast, I'd say the cold is indeed coming soon.

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I’m closely watching the 12-14th timeframe. Fv3-gfs has a suppressed storm with coastal NC getting a fringe snow event.   Good setup with good cold on the backside.  Surprisingly cold for November.  

 

If this his threat is still here inside 180hrs this could be a legit threat.

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Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

C1EA055B-43CD-48F4-BC70-582AF479D997.thumb.png.28c8eb10852db64f80c1d619d0959c3b.png830337AB-05CA-42DD-8D47-A49DEE0E372B.thumb.png.382e0039a269ee4c0aa832ab2888edcc.png

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1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

C1EA055B-43CD-48F4-BC70-582AF479D997.thumb.png.28c8eb10852db64f80c1d619d0959c3b.png830337AB-05CA-42DD-8D47-A49DEE0E372B.thumb.png.382e0039a269ee4c0aa832ab2888edcc.png

Snowfall map gives me 1"... We all know the track record of underestimating the CAD, gives me vibes of this past January 

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Not buying it because of years of climatology suggesting otherwise, but the 12z EPS is entertaining for NC. Several members have at least minor snowfall events in ~10 days. Would not rule out a brief flurry here similar to 2008/2013, but anything more seems highly unlikely. 

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Thanks to the pac (+pna) season kicks off early this year boys starting late next weekend into the following week. So much gets made out of watching the NAO, to me its always the pna going positive and anchoring in. Say it every winter, pick one tc you want on your side and for the SE for me its always the pna going positive on roids. Love the neg nao as much as anyone,but when you get a ridge bubbling up off western canada, the cold is coming gangbusters. Then you worry about timing issues with or without blocking. First step is always getting the cold air. 

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks to the pac (+pna) season kicks off early this year boys starting late next weekend into the following week. So much gets made out of watching the NAO, to me its always the pna going positive and anchoring in. Say it every winter, pick one tc you want on your side and for the SE for me its always the pna going positive on roids. Love the neg nao as much as anyone,but when you get a ridge bubbling up off western canada, the cold is coming gangbusters. Then you worry about timing issues with or without blocking. First step is always getting the cold air. 

That is true. But as you stated without the NAO it's always progressive and timing is crucial. Hadn't even looked but I'm sure the NAO is positive right?

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24 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

That is true. But as you stated without the NAO it's always progressive and timing is crucial. Hadn't even looked but I'm sure the NAO is positive right?

It is near zero right now, supposed to dip really negative around the 18th

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12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It is near zero right now, supposed to dip really negative around the 18th

Thats a big pac ridge going up latter this week into next week. It will have the snowguns turned on up at the slopes next Sunday. If we get the nao to dip a few days latter then the mtns could be in for a few treats at a minimum.  As Tyler already posted eps showing some higher than normal probability chances in 9 to 10 days. My foundest memory of 09-10 was the never ending tracking. Systems would come every 3 to 5 days and it was always boderline opportunities. Cashed in on more than we missed that winter.

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On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 7:49 PM, fountainguy97 said:

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

C1EA055B-43CD-48F4-BC70-582AF479D997.thumb.png.28c8eb10852db64f80c1d619d0959c3b.png830337AB-05CA-42DD-8D47-A49DEE0E372B.thumb.png.382e0039a269ee4c0aa832ab2888edcc.png

Oh MY.. NO WAY! SST Temps are still in the low 70's Massive warm nose! Wilmywood getting snow in Nov? Bah Bah Bah! 

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