CarySnowLover

I would like to rant about RDU's apparent inability to produce a good snowfall before Christmas. Look at the chart below. Four winter storms that produced over a foot of snow in some part of NC left RDU with a mere trace.

I would really love to see a cold December with SNOW for once in the RDU area. Every December since 2011 has been mild and snowless in this area. Last December was especially frustrating with the Deep South getting a significant snowfall and me getting cold rain. Maybe our fortunes will change this year...I hope so!

12z GFS has the western two thirds of NC getting at least some light snow next Tuesday night. Accumulation not likely outside of the mountains but I like seeing snow on the models this early!

Not buying it because of years of climatology suggesting otherwise, but the 12z EPS is entertaining for NC. Several members have at least minor snowfall events in ~10 days. Would not rule out a brief flurry here similar to 2008/2013, but anything more seems highly unlikely.

I would love for the FV3 to be correct. But I'm just not buying it. It's an outlier, and it is hard to get my hopes up for anything before January knowing central NC climatology. I feel like we are due for an early snowstorm at some point, but until I see it with my own eyes, I have my doubts.

That is so true for the Southeast and wintry events. We have to wait until January for any decent chance of anything, and then when we do get a chance, either the soil is too warm, or a "warm air nose" turns the precipitation to ice. Getting just a few inches of snow is a challenge in the Carolinas outside of the mountains - especially in the month of December. I'm still frustrated that Louisiana and Las Vegas have seen more impressive pre-Christmas snows than us in the last decade.

Lol...that is true. I want to be optimistic about this upcoming winter for lots of snow. While El Niños do usually mean cooler and wetter conditions for winter in North Carolina, it's entirely possible that what we do get is a very cold rain or ice. The last El Niño (2015-16) we only had a mere 1.4" of snowfall total, though that was a Super El Niño and this one is much weaker. From what I have noticed (and Eric Webb has pointed this out as well), El Niño winters seem to favor the heaviest snow totals being farther west (especially the Triad westward), while the Triangle eastward is left with less accumulation. Many of the heaviest central/eastern NC snowfalls (Dec 1989, Jan 2000, Jan 2002, Dec 2010 and Jan 2018) occurred during cool neutral or La Niña ENSO years. The only El Niños in recent memory to have produced above average snowfall in the area are 2009-10 and 2014-15, hopefully this winter will be like those years!

Hoping for a very snowy winter here in Cary. Last year was our snowiest in a while - I measured about 10" of snow from the January 17 storm. Would love to get the season started early as early-mid December has been notoriously difficult to get accumulating snowfall in recent years.