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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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17 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Just a comment about  freezing rain and ice accretion.  Several have noted that this is a self limiting process.  That is true in many cases, but in cases with ideal placement of high pressure and continual advection of cold air/low dew points, it is easy to keep temps under freezing.  In fact, that is how most ice storms in CAD areas play out.  In most cases with a hybrid event or high pressure moving out, it is self limiting.  It's just that not all cases are hybrids or highs sliding out.

TW

One thing that concerns me a little bit is how pronounced this CAD is on all models already. CAD usually strengthens within 48 hours. This is early in the season so we will see if that still holds true this time. 

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It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. 

Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. 

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. 

The 32k nam is in absolute perfect position at 60 hrs with the HP right around the Binghamton NY area. That imo is where we have our major ice storms due to funneling of the cold air coming straight out of the St Lawrence Valley. As you alluded to as well it strengthened the mb by 2 with a 1038 now being progged. Def a concern at this point. GFS resembles anything remotely close I’d start honking. 

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From what I'm seeing, the 3k is warmer than the 12k.  However, the 0Z  3k is a fair amount stronger with the wedge than the 18z run.  The key is to look at trends.  For the time being, they are stronger and colder with the high/wedge.

TW

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14 minutes ago, JoshM said:

FWIW, 3k NAM is having none of this, temps much warmer.

2m dew points are stout all the way into central NC at 60. That will play a factor in this one. 

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

For my backyard it was 32 with Precip falling. Only about 2 degrees warmer than 12k 

Big difference with 2 degrees, especially in NC Piedmont and Upstate SC

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Again, the key takeaway is that the 3k and 12k both trended stronger with the high, the wedge, and the cold.  If things play out as currently modeled, there won't be much impact east of the mountains.  However, there isn't much wiggle room left. 

TW

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Seems a no brainer for NWS to put a 6-12 hour period of zr into the CAD regions for later Wednesday night into late morning Thursday.  Both NAMs are showing advisory or warning criteria for CAD and mountain regions of NC. 

TW

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7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Gfs follows suit and comes in colder. 

Unreal!! We never flip to plain rain up here verbatim 0z gfs. ZR the entire duration precip falls.

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5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Very conservative after some of these 0z runs.:sleepy::P

3pm graphic. Likely will have another in a few hours.

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