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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Already happening

hlgMAXw01a.gif

 

LF is defined as when the center point of the eye crosses the shoreline....that may happen in a few hours (5?)....but it's not "already happening"...

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Models have been trending it a bit more west each run, If it goes any more west than the 12Z Euro had it will bring the eye entirely ashore which will definitely results in a fair amount of weakening.

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Also I'd like to see backup of your claim that the eye was "collapsing" on radar earlier.


I've been waiting for that...don't think we'll get it though.
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The question isn't whether Irma comes onshore...but how far on shore. If the center stays just off shore and rides the coast then it will lose a little steam but not much, like the HWRF. If the whole eye goes inland then I would look to the HMON

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8 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Theoretical max was 26ft for downtown in the Project Phoenix scenario. This was for a 160mph cat 5 on a NNE approach. I've also seen low 30s modeled in county documents for the area around Tampa General on Davis Island.

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

 

Ouch. That would simply destroy the entire area.  Thanks for sharing 

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The eye will probably cross into Cuba and weaken, maybe down to a Cat 3, but the core should be intact enough for it to take advantage of very warm water near the Keys. It won't be over Cuba too long and it is crossing into a relatively flat part of the island. 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I've been waiting for that...don't think we'll get it though.

The only thing i can find is a mention of contraction from the earlier ~41 miles to 35 per twitter 

 

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8 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

They've already internally upgraded it to a 5 guys. This arguments moot 

No it isn't when the Cat 5 prog is for 36 hours from now. It hasn't fully interacted with Cuba yet.

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's after it moves back into the Florida Strait, both the weakening estimates and the intensifying thereafter are possibly underestimates in terms of overall magnitude.

Just checked and EUro has Irma at 951mb leaving the Cuba coast and dropping back to 927mb before landfall in Naples. Although Euro started too high those numbers might end up verifying.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sea-level-pressure/20170910-0300z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/sea-level-pressure/20170910-2100z.html

 

 

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I suppose NHC had to upgrade it based on the data, but some others posted, including a met, the interaction with Cuba should make that upgrade short-lived, no?



We could just wait and see what happens instead of trying to guess. Whether it's a 155mph Cat 4 or a 160mph Cat 5, it doesn't matter. Gonna be bad either way.
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1 minute ago, mappy said:

 


We could just wait and see what happens instead of trying to guess. Whether it's a 155mph Cat 4 or a 160mph Cat 5, it doesn't matter. Gonna be bad either way.

 

No argument here. I personally am hoping for a diminished storm for personal, family reasons. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will probably cross into Cuba and weaken, maybe down to a Cat 3, but the core should be intact enough for it to take advantage of very warm water near the Keys. It won't be over Cuba too long and it is crossing into a relatively flat part of the island. 

I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. 

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Just now, andyhb said:

I'm aware, but again, I wasn't referring to what is happening now.

There are several different studies out there that this land interaction could also force wind speeds higher. We won't know until later what happens next.

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it drops 20-25 mph

To put some perspective on this, this is still stronger (not to mention much larger) than Harvey ever was.

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This is from NHC, but isn't an official advisory. It's used to initialize the 0Z hurricane-specific models. Because this exists doesn't mean that NHC re-upgrades to Cat 5 this evening, but makes it plausible they do:

 

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/

At 0000 UTC, 09 September 2017, MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.1°N and 77.2°W. The current intensity was 140 kt and the center was moving at 12 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb.

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time?

We haven't had two Cat 4 hurricanes simultaneously in 160+ years of records I believe.

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34 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info 

There is an evacuation thread. Questions can be answered there

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time?

I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here.  Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma.  I suspect Jose will weaken as well.

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. 

i agree. i also think that effect will tug it further west and possibly threaten a larger portion of the west coast of florida 

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10 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here.  Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma.  I suspect Jose will weaken as well.

Jose shows no signs of weakening and the 26+˚C isotherm is very deep in that area. Dry air would be the wild card for weakening it currently. Irma, while a monster, was moving fairly quickly through there.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

west again

aal11_2017090900_track_early.png

Majority of that guidance just scrapes the coast of Cuba...which won't weaken Irma much at all.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

west again

aal11_2017090900_track_early.png

Not good when half of globals were west of all of them at 12z.

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