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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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I think it's safe to say the odds of a OTS storm are diminishing. Correct me here, but it appears all the CONUS players are onshore now. Might change in the future, but that's where things stand now. 

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watch that little piece of energy coming right behind the trough over the N Plains at 120.. that could be a big player here if the trough bypasses entirely.

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

895 at 138

889mb at 144. it may be overdone but to see these sub 900 pressures so consistently is really concerning. almost like the 40-50"+ totals for harvey that we all thought were overdone.

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Regarding the pressure progs, has there ever been a sub 900mb low in that part of the Atlantic? Certainly in the GOM and western Caribbean, but up there? Can anyone think what the lowest pressure in that part of the basin is? The signal for an anomalously intense hurricane is certainly unanimous, and the available heat and low shear supports the modeling, but they often overdo deepening. The GFS apparently has some issue with PWATs that feeds into it. Maybe adjust any GFS pressure up by 20-30mb?

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Given the consistency of these low pressures, the environment around the Bahamas then must be just about perfect for explosive deepening. A Cat 5 moving nearby has to at least be on the table. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Given the consistency of these low pressures, the environment around the Bahamas then must be just about perfect for explosive deepening. A Cat 5 moving nearby has to at least be on the table. 

At this point, I'm feeling fairly confident we see a Cat 5, or at least very close to it. Nearly every model I've looked at gets AOB 930mb, which makes sense because the environment is nearly perfect. Do I buy the sub 900mb pressures? No, I don't. It is pretty difficult to get sub 900mb storms and given that the only model that goes that deep is the GFS, which has been busting low on pressures for the past few months.

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The media is going to go insane with this during the upcoming week if these low central pressures come about.  A hurricane with winds gusting to 190 - 200+ MPH threatening Florida and the SE coast.  Just imagine...

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1 minute ago, Snowman99 said:

Since GFS upgrade it overly deepens hurricanes all the time

Hurricane models are showing extremely low pressures as well. This isn't just a small blip, but nothing is set in stone.

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Wow the GFS really doesn't want to give up the sub 900mb bone. I thought as time got closer and with a little better resolution, the pressure would start to come back to a more realistic level. It clearly isn't happing, at least not yet.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

The media is going to go insane with this during the upcoming week if these low central pressures come about.  A hurricane with winds gusting to 190 - 200+ MPH threatening Florida and the SE coast.  Just imagine...

I think the pressures could be 50Mb higher and the media will still be going insane very soon if nothing changes on the models.

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