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Everything posted by Snowman99

  1. Looks like the colder tops are expanding again around the center.
  2. Down to 155 mph, cat 4. Could weaken more followed by possible strengthening again per NHC. No real change in track..
  3. Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone 1m1 minute ago More 7 am. Heading S on Florida Turnpike near Kissimmee. N-bound lanes mobbed. #IRMA the only topic on morning radio. Folks are *freaked*.
  4. Eh..6 hours isn't that much of a difference at this rate. They'll be issued late this morning. Everyone knows they're coming, a lot of people are already leaving. NHC usually does everything by the book.
  5. No Cuba landfall this time, quite a bit north of previous runs.
  6. Usually the better intact a storm is when hitting cuba like that, the worse shape its in when it reemerges. Especially if its a large size...and it just doesnt get its act back together. Ike was like that i believe..was supposed to get to cat 4 or 5 again over the Gulf and couldnt do it. Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk
  7. Since GFS upgrade it overly deepens hurricanes all the time
  8. Winds are up to 125 pressure down to 944.
  9. GFS still landfall near SC NC border
  10. I don't know about eastern outlier..it's about in the middle. The mean is almost identical to the operational it looks to me.
  11. come on..no one can be surprised by this. I've been expecting this month to be a write off for about 5 months now, lol. I hate it too, but lets give it some time. It's only Dec 12, lol.
  12. I would be on the lookout for potential severe weather next weekend if last night's Euro is close to right.
  13. There are many ways for this winter to be a dud. There are also ways for it to be pretty good. We have a huge basin wide El Nino out there, which we basically have never had ...at least as strong as this one. Sub tropical jet will likely be extremely active at times. Any real cold air intrusions probably won't last too long as the jet cuts it off and shunts it away. If we can get the STJ and the polar jet to combine a few times in the middle of the country we could get some blockbusters. It's going to be interesting to watch this pattern evolve. Unfortunately I need things to come further north up here near St. Louis than you folks down south. I have a feeling I'll be watching many a storm cruise by to my south.
  14. I think much of November will be hot to trot...first 2-3 weeks anyway. Unfortunately. We'll see I guess.
  15. That's the stupidest winter outlook I have ever seen. Lmao It's going to snow in the Rockies? Wow..shocking.
  16. October looks like a pretty warm month, Autumn as a whole looks to be pretty good amount above normal. Going to be waiting a while for any real cold.
  17. As far as I can tell, this winter is truly a toss up and can go in any direction. A strong Nino is not really a good thing, the persistant ridging in the ne Pacific is a good thing, but the Nino will try it's damndest to get rid of it. An early maturing nino and it breaking down during the Nino is a big plus, if it happens. I think December will be a pretty crappy month..ie...mild and more mild. Colder and snowier as we work our way through the winter..but anything is possible.
  18. Interesting how the top 3 are all in Missouri, or in case of the tri-state, started in MO.
  19. Great to hear you're OK Jomo! My sister lives in Springfield, and she has talked to a state trooper in Joplin. According to him, part of the reason the ID-ing of people is going slow is because they are finding 'parts' of people, and it's taking a while. Sorry to be gruesome..he said it's like being sucked up into a blender.
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