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Model Mayhem IV!


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38 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

Would like to see a model besides the Euro pick up on this for SNE. Though it's probably the only model that can be on its own and still be taken seriously

Ukie has it and so does JMA....GFS is too far north right now for much snow...maybe a little. GGEM ironaically is a bit too far south...it doesn't get going until east of us. It does give a couple inches though.

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Fantastic tantalizing WPC discussion for New England, particularly CNE and NNE:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST THU FEB 09 2017

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2017

PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A PERSISTENT CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH....WITH DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST US AND WESTERN CANADA.  THIS FAVORS A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW 2 DISTINCT WAVES
CROSSING THE REGION...WITH TRIPLE POINT
LOW FORMATION OCCURRING NEAR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION AND WIND/WAVE EVENT.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES FROM THE DAKOTAS MON TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW YORK WED.  TRIPLE POINT LOW
REDEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO COASTAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE LOW  DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.

THE DEBATE ON THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH PHASING OCCURS
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER TROUGH...WHICH STARTS AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 00Z ECMWF
OPERATIONAL/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING/PHASING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE GFS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND ITS
ENSEMBLE LEAN.

THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A SLOWER MOTION TO THIS SYSTEM AS NO
KICKER SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE PRESENT TO EJECT THE LOW QUICKLY
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  SO EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS WERE
ON THE SLOWER PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE DISTRIBUTION...THEY WERE
INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER
MOTION BEING MORE CORRECT.  THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z NAEFS MEAN  WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT AND INCLUDED AS WELL.

THE DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS WERE BASED ON MAINLY AN 00Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH MORE
WEIGHTING TO THE MEANS NEXT THU 16 FEB.

WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE..SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.  A FEW OF THE
RUNS HAVE A STORM APPROACHING CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST DURING NEXT
THU 16 FEB...WITH THE SLOWER GFS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND AS A
COUNTER TO FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION.


WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE 2 BIG STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 4 MON 13 DEF AND
DAYS 6 WED 13 FEB INTO DAY 7 THU 14 FEB.  THERE ARE MULTIPLE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 FEET OF SNOW
WITH GOOD CLUSTERING ON THE MON EVENT AND BIGGER SPREAD ON THE
WED-THU POTENTIAL EVENT IN IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ENHANCED
AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.  AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EAST, IT SHOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RNFL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE NEXT PACIFIC CYCLONE OFF THE COAST DAY 7 16 FEB MAY GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NORTHERN CA NORTH ACROSS WESTERN OR AND WA.

THE MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DAY 3 FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL.  SOME DAILY RECORDS FOR
HIGHS/WARM MINIMA ARE PSBL.

THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ALSO SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DAYS 3-4 BEFORE REVERTING CLOSER TO NORMAL MID WEEK.
THE BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE OUT WEST SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES/GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST US DAYS 4-7.

PETERSEN

 

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27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo.

I agree...its colder because there is less warm air advection since cyclogenesis is meager at this latitude.

Run sucks.

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27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo.

Earlier cyclogenesis south of LI. The earlier cyclogenesis occurs the better chance it goes through full synoptic wave developnwnt while still close enough to give us significant snow. 

-NAO , --AO, ++ PNA; best combo for a MECS. And we have a well modeled deep UL trough over the eastern CONUS coinciding with a potent disturbance  (shortwave). All of eastern NE and NYC metro should be very interested in this one. I like this one. A LOT.

The -NAO, which we didn't have this time, will also help to slow this guy down as he travels NE and rapidly intensifies.

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