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Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem IV!

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What is less than clear is what form this will take...whether, a singular more important event, or perhaps a series of them.

But, one aspect that has me intrigued is that regardless of model type/source/origin, I'm seeing heights recess below the ~ 35th parallel from the eastern Pacific through the Americas and into the Atlantic.  This is happening as the EPO is falling negative.

We'll get back to that..

The CDC's PNA prognostics have finally begun to reflect that the CPC's, with a fairly robust surge (positive) in the index as we end out the first week of February. The 'pulse' in the PNA may be enough to send an important signal/wave correction down stream across the mid latitudes of N/A, as it is certainly sufficiently present in the numbers.  But also, many individual members of the GFS' ensembles have been signaling some sort of 200 to 268 hour "interval of interest" - it is interesting to see the broader canvased teleconnector support there sort of coming in after the fact.

While the mid latitudes get around to sending (or not) some sort of corrective event across the Americas, the entire breadth of the NP may be nearing the best AA phase we've seen this winter. That's important as a tandem series of events, because the PNA can do so without the over-arcing colder signal to work with.  Which is to say, the WPO is strongly negative in the prognostics now, during the first half of February. And, the evaluation includes a timely relay into a robustly dropping EPO index. 

The end result is a stormy look/interpretation there.  ...Pretty damn good one too.  wow. 

Should the age-old plague of this winter (seasonal resistant height recession in the deep south) also cooperate, I'd feel more confident of a bigger singular event or two (perhaps..).  However, it is possible if not plausible that the current sort of hint for that to happen fails, and there is continued shearing/velocity challenges to impulses in the flow... effectively shallowing them out in latitude.  Either way, more rather than less active should bring in the first 10 days to two weeks of this next month; we've been onto this for longer term experimental product types, but we are now seeing some of this via more convectional means (in my estimation) which lends a bit of confidence ... well, 'more so' than before.  

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55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

What is less than clear is what form this will take...whether, a singular more important event, or perhaps a series of them.

But, one aspect that has me intrigued is that regardless of model type/source/origin, I'm seeing heights recess below the ~ 35th parallel from the eastern Pacific through the Americas and into the Atlantic.  This is happening as the EPO is falling negative.

We'll get back to that..

The CDC's PNA prognostics have finally begun to reflect that the CPC's, with a fairly robust surge (positive) in the index as we end out the first week of February. The 'pulse' in the PNA may be enough to send an important signal/wave correction down stream across the mid latitudes of N/A, as it is certainly sufficiently present in the numbers.  But also, many individual members of the GFS' ensembles have been signaling some sort of 200 to 268 hour "interval of interest" - it is interesting to see the broader canvased teleconnector support there sort of coming in after the fact.

While the mid latitudes get around to sending (or not) some sort of corrective event across the Americas, the entire breadth of the NP may be nearing the best AA phase we've seen this winter. That's important as a tandem series of events, because the PNA can do so without the over-arcing colder signal to work with.  Which is to say, the WPO is strongly negative in the prognostics now, during the first half of February. And, the evaluation includes a timely relay into a robustly dropping EPO index. 

The end result is a stormy look/interpretation there.  ...Pretty damn good one too.  wow. 

Should the age-old plague of this winter (seasonal resistant height recession in the deep south) also cooperate, I'd feel more confident of a bigger singular event or two (perhaps..).  However, it is possible if not plausible that the current sort of hint for that to happen fails, and there is continued shearing/velocity challenges to impulses in the flow... effectively shallowing them out in latitude.  Either way, more rather than less active should bring in the first 10 days to two weeks of this next month; we've been onto this for longer term experimental product types, but we are now seeing some of this via more convectional means (in my estimation) which lends a bit of confidence ... well, 'more so' than before.  

So, to sum up your thoughts, all of New England is guaranteed a great snowy stretch of winter weather for the entire month of February. Just kidding. Thanks for the write up. I appreciate the time and effort that you and the other mets put in to the discussions here. 

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NAM is trying to produce low level inflow into the SNE region.  Cape and Islands could be in for a few inches of snow if trends continue on the models.  EURO was closest to the NAM depiction this evening.

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NAM looks to slow with the trough on Monday before the Wednesday storm comes through, there just isn't enough ridging between the shortwaves for the Wednesday clipper to come further south.

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15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

NAM is trying to produce low level inflow into the SNE region.  Cape and Islands could be in for a few inches of snow if trends continue on the models.  EURO was closest to the NAM depiction this evening.

For Monday? 

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Snagged this from the previous mayhem thread, but Jerry is spot on. The ensemble sensitivity guidance argues for this very point. The more than western ridge pops the better our clipper will dig.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Snagged this from the previous mayhem thread, but Jerry is spot on. The ensemble sensitivity guidance argues for this very point. The more than western ridge pops the better our clipper will dig.

Looks good for you, for me I found a shovel for Kev

miniature_metal_snow_shovel_2.jpg

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Snagged this from the previous mayhem thread, but Jerry is spot on. The ensemble sensitivity guidance argues for this very point. The more than western ridge pops the better our clipper will dig.

Needs a PNA injection.  Thing is on life support when it comes thru.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Needs a PNA injection.  Thing is on life support when it comes thru.

Actually looks decent for Chris

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As long as that vort energy is tracking underneath SNE it bears watching...my bigger concern is the energy stays a little too stretched out and flattish...but if it gets just a shade more organized then look out...you could all of the sudden go from like a C-2" event to 3-6. Not predicting that....before people start making vague passive-aggressive references to "forecasts of 3-6" if this doesn't pan out by early next week, but just giving some insight into what can go right or wrong not this system. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as that vort energy is tracking underneath SNE it bears watching...my bigger concern is the energy stays a little too stretched out and flattish...but if it gets just a shade more organized then look out...you could all of the sudden go from like a C-2" event to 3-6. Not predicting that before people start making vague passive-aggressive references to "forecasts of 3-6" of this doesn't pan out by early next week, but just giving some insight into what can go right or wrong not this system. 

I agree Will.  Wednesday clipper has a ton of energy involved, the more energy involved the stronger a system can be potentially if it has a sharp trough with it, but if it is stretched out then the system will be less robust.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as that vort energy is tracking underneath SNE it bears watching...my bigger concern is the energy stays a little too stretched out and flattish...but if it gets just a shade more organized then look out...you could all of the sudden go from like a C-2" event to 3-6. Not predicting that....before people start making vague passive-aggressive references to "forecasts of 3-6" if this doesn't pan out by early next week, but just giving some insight into what can go right or wrong not this system. 

" I don't know what happened". "Folks forecasting 3-6", and we ended up with a coating"

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Monday deal post super Bowl still on the GFS... pretty weak and light even with the low way offshore 

Nails is pretty good actually.

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You know, model progs are looking a little mid level magical for Monday. Pretty decent f-gen from 850-700 mb, closed/closing lows provide some deformation. I would say the forcing isn't half bad from BID to the Canal on the GFS and Euro.

Problem is there could be some saturation issues (GFS has a 75-80% area lurking around the Pike) so the lift wouldn't really amount to much. I do hate the GFS QPF output though.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nails is pretty good actually.

Only looks like 1-3/2-4 to me though Synoptically it's close to something bigger. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only looks like 1-3/2-4 to me though Synoptically it's close to something bigger. 

I kind of like the look.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only looks like 1-3/2-4 to me though Synoptically it's close to something bigger. 

Which day lol getting confused

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