Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Everything on track for a snowy Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 It's interesting the operational guidance from 00z (exception of course being that GGEM ...) took a bit of a back seat on the idea for a more substantive event during the end of the first week of February; the teleconnectors still support that. Note, the 06z bringing it back is noted.. It's way out there; we are still just setting the table anyway. However, one thing I noticed is that the preponderance of warm heights in the deep south partially returned; that offsets the support. I am not sure if that has legs ... Several cycles showed the 582 dm height contour had receded S of MIA, with a bit more of a "gap" between it and the 576 (which also opened up relative to the 570 and so forth...). However, last night's operational tenor seemed to close those gaps/reposition the 582 about half way back... Problem is (for me) that's entirely possible if not plausible considering seasonal trends (not to name other reasons). It's all important in the mechanical physics for out there in time. The changes as discussed across the northern arc of the Pacific appear to still be in tact in the tele's, and the PNA as well (despite any deviations from those the operationals presently depict); the issue is that that could all come to pass while said seasonal persistence does as well. We end up with more action in the flow, but still screaming along and sheared/progressively maddening for timing light to midland sized events. It is my guess though, that folks wouldn't care how it is all being delivered, as long as it does - just sayn' In the meantime, my suspicion is that we've seen the max across one of these guidance cycles wrt what will happen from Monday and Wednesday, and it's just been like the magnitude variances are rattling around inside a narrow envelope of relative insignificance. Obviously we collectively know/knew that we are not dealing with anything special there - but sufficed it is to say, it's better in an otherwise maddening dearth to have just about anything take place at all. That's sort of the attitude I have om those; the usual checklist of "maybe ifs" has been checked off and none of those answers offer reason to think otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs looks better for the clipper as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs looks better for the clipper as well. The shortwave is getting more of a kink on the front end of it. That's what we gotta watch for as mentioned previously. Back that flow just a bit and it changes the complexion of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Now do we believe it's correct, is the bigger question. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Good clip on the clipper on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The shortwave is getting more of a kink on the front end of it. That's what we gotta watch for as mentioned previously. Back that flow just a bit and it changes the complexion of the system. Yep. And subtle srfc features like weak HP to the north are sneaking in trying for low level erly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs starting to beef up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Good call Kev, looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Would like to see the inv. trough feature come back a bit southwest. It looks similar to what the CMC showed at 0z I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 'Bout time the GFS makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I like that a potent surface high develops over Fla, and feeds southwesterly moisture laden flow from the GOM right out ahead of this little guy. If the lead wave wouldn't cause our clipper to run into UL height falls this would be a nice mod event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS looks like a decent hit for the system next Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good call Kev, looks good Thanks man. Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Snow numbers coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Snow numbers coming up. Anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Cheryl Lemke just filed a complaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I remember when we used to get clippers up here. We don't get ****ing **** anymore except scraps from others' 5 star meals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: Snow numbers coming up. GEFS are insane whole run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I thought euro would be decent given mid levels but it has little to show for it. Does drop a couple up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought euro would be decent given mid levels but it has little to show for it. Does drop a couple up north. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Such a meh dry boring Euro run. BORING!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Poke the PNA ridge up some more, and the bowling ball drops south on the day 9 euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I'm honestly sticking one leg out the door on this season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Lake effect where it's at the next 10 days. Cold and relatively dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like the main difference been the GFS SWFE and tHE EURO rainer in the long range is that the GFS is more impressive with the +pp north of ME. Looks like a mess, though......not a big ticket event. That much is becoming clear. We would need to see that PNA ridge get significantly more robust in order to dig that SLRV H5 low south. EDIT: Shocked to see the GEM back down....didn't see that coming- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I thought euro would be decent given mid levels but it has little to show for it. Does drop a couple up north. Yeah thought it looked pretty good aloft so I was expecting a better result. Anyways, 12z def trended better for the clipper. I'm not yet interested in chasing Super Bowl ghosts...ill wait a few more days for that. Hard to hate the pattern tough going forward. Plenty of cold around and we should get some activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah thought it looked pretty good aloft so I was expecting a better result. Anyways, 12z def trended better for the clipper. I'm not yet interested in chasing Super Bowl ghosts...ill wait a few more days for that. Hard to hate the pattern tough going forward. Plenty of cold around and we should get some activity. Agree. I see some getting sucked in. One thing at a time. I could care less about that storm later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like the main difference been the GFS SWFE and tHE EURO rainer in the long range is that the GFS is more impressive with the +pp north of ME. Looks like a mess, though......not a big ticket event. That much is becoming clear. We would need to see that PNA ridge get significantly more robust in order to dig that SLRV H5 low south. EDIT: Shocked to see the GEM back down....didn't see that coming- Where did you see a euro rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.