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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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The GFS led on the GOM bomb for Monday - by a goodly couple of cycles at that.  

It seems folks have a real predisposed sort of 'wait for the Euro' tendency before the cadence shift -

We've been around for years and we know why .. it's understandable.  But, I just want to point out that this years alone, the Euro's performance as of late has not really proven so demonstratively better than the American source/tools.  It may still edge the GFS out in skill - granted...(or not).  But as a side note: that's even open to debate in my mind because I have yet to see the model verification scores calculated in quadrature - fancy word for smaller quadrants of the bigger picture.  

Correct me if I'm wrong:  the verification is scored at hemispheric scales?  

If not ..I apologize, but trust ones eyes (you know?) ... the Euro is NOT better over eastern N/A than the GFS and has not been in some time. 

Sorry haha. Just a sort of a bur in my pantie line I've been squirming with as of late.  

Anyway, yeah ...obviously everyone knows this but, get that little beast to tuck even 200 miles S (not impossible for D4.5) as a correction and that's a good for SNE too. As is, that looks like BTV-PWM special; but we'd probably have some issues in the high end advisory N of the Pike.  

It's almost like a NJ model low but higher up in latitude... which is to say, weak to midland low with a ton of mid level mechanical power hits the coast/uniquely favorable environment for intensification and away she goes!  Boom... Usually, we see that in these fast flat, yet still amplified flows, anyway.  In other words, there is plenty of precedence for what is modeled but with one notable exception this time:  raw power!  That thing is torqued up like a pulsar.  It's actually approaching from an interesting vector - more straight west to east with less southerly curvature - that's owing to being more purely northern stream in both the GFS/Euro handling.  Another facet of NJ lows ...they tend to be N-stream borne.  

The best one I can recall as a paradigm for instruction was the November 1986 (but there are a many) ... It's pretty much any time a clipper hits the mid and upper MA and waits to really nuke around that area and heads out to see..clipping NYC-BOS-PWM with one of those 6 -hour jobs - certainly bears similarity to that which is modeled for Monday. 

Plus, we have some isentropic snows for Saturday to keep the festivities in a low grade celebratory state in between keg deliveries... :) 

You know, it's like ... the whole season occurs in perhaps 2.5 weeks, for all intents an purposes. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Correct me if I'm wrong:  the verification is scored at hemispheric scales?  

NCEP's verification scores are based on northern hemi. CMC does verification scores for just North America and the Euro is still consistently the best at both day 1 and day 5.

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5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

NCEP's verification scores are based on northern hemi. CMC does verification scores for just North America and the Euro is still consistently the best at both day 1 and day 5.

Right, at that scale of Hemisphere - I bet it is...

I would doubt that it is over just mid latitudes of N/A just based upon clear existential encounters with that model over the past two months.  haha. to put it nicely.  

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Right, at that scale of Hemisphere - I bet it is...

I would doubt that it is over just mid latitudes of N/A just based upon clear existential encounters with that model over the past two months.  haha. to put it nicely.  

 

I hear ya.

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Man ... fearing echoing any sentiments by Joe B ... I must say, several GEFs members hint (or even more so) at dropping a piece of SPV down into a traversing southerly and/or intermediate wave out there around D8...  offering at least a favorable set up for some form of exotic phase.  

Most don't - some do...  But, considering the antecedent teleconnectors modalities and such, that period is statistically rife with potential so ... least of regretful courses would be to keep an eye on things man.  wow

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man ... fearing echoing any sentiments by Joe B ... I must say, several GEFs members hint (or even more so) at dropping a piece of SPV down into a traversing southerly and/or intermediate wave out there around D8...  offering at least a favorable set up for some form of exotic phase.  

Most don't - some do...  But, considering the antecedent teleconnectors modalities and such, that period is statistically rife with potential so ... least of regretful courses would be to keep an eye on things man.  wow

triple phaser?

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Monday is starting to get really interesting because a lot of guidance is now deepening the H5 trough extremely fast and intense....it almost goes due E and explodes. I still hegde toward SNE being a bit too far south but CNE/NNE might get obliterated. We'll have to watch though for an epic sneaky CCB on the coast of MA though as it tries to escape east.

 

I'd like to see a couple more cycles of this intense deepening though before really latching onto the idea.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Monday is starting to get really interesting because a lot of guidance is now deepening the H5 trough extremely fast and intense....it almost goes due E and explodes. I still hegde toward SNE being a bit too far south but CNE/NNE might get obliterated. We'll have to watch though for an epic sneaky CCB on the coast of MA though as it tries to escape east.

 

I'd like to see a couple more cycles of this intense deepening though before really latching onto the idea.

I don't see any way we don't get some snow from that one.

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30 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

triple phaser?

No ..heh.  

Triple phase systems are fascinating...  They tend to be fast moving and locked into the whole-scale planetary wave motion.  You can't really "cut-off" a triple phased system because the planetary physics wan't allow circulations of that size.   

They are so interesting because they really epitomize the idea of the "correction event" - the ultimate Archembault scenario.  1993 was a triple phase deal and it was all dramatic and histrionic and all that - won't take away from it's historical significance in any way. But, the storm only lasted about 9 to 12 hours where we were in eastern Massachusetts.  The wind aspect forecast for the next day was over-cooked and didn't material much... (but that seems to always have problems verifying). The quick translation of that monster, as it moved from the zygote position over the western Gulf, to then hyper-bombogenesis as it turned the corner in the SE, then...up the coast co-located over the I-95 corridor ..that whole evolution was like 18 to 24 hours.  Places snowed the whole time because... well, when a storm is 3,000 naut miles in circumvallate ...it's simply going to logistically take that long to get through it. But, it was moving so fast because it was locked into the whole flow structure which was getting ready to enter a phase change. 

What the purist snow lover should actually want is a fairly static R-wave configuration, with a double-stream phase plunked into the bottom of the trough axis.  Where the triple phase is so dramatic, the double phase gives you both drama and duration ;)  That was 1978, twice as a matter of fact, across a two week period.  In fact, the L/W axis was probably still in place for all intents and purposes, for all four eastern N/A events that transpired that month from Jan 10 through February 10.  Two of those were two stream phases; two were more like large scale warm advection snow/mix thumps...

The two that were phases were the "Cleveland Superbomb" and the "Blizzard of '78"   The two that were more broadly focused were Miller A type deals. Logan/Boston actually set a 12 hour snowfall record from one of those. 

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Can someone give me a brief synopsis of what we see for next week on other models? That GFS is trending in the right direction. Does southern CT have a chance on the Ukie? Wow - just had a total whiteout, complete zero vizz - awesome.  Sorry, back on topic. The threats for next week - looking good? Wednesday/Thursday? There was talk of a triple phase for later next week on one of these threads.

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Despite whatever details are more or less desirable about this operational GFS run(s) as of late ... there still exists the potential for two significant storm events next week in a fast moving, highly energetic flow. 

Usually you don't get significance piled on top of one another in shorter duration ... but, given to the anomalous nature to the flow it's possible if not plausible. 

The first ...obviously Monday ... may very well take a more N route than usual for NJ model/late boomer detonation systems.  Plain to see that currently the primary focus is the Maine and NH coastal regions ... but this is still in flux, and with minor perturbations in modeled time/placement of driving kinematics, this could easily bring concerns down into eastern SNE and even as far SW as NYC if things break toward more amplitude/correction. 

The 2nd is more nebular as it should be for late middle and extended range...but it comes along roughly a week from now as a possible more phased results between a weakening N stream and a well time southern impulse.  ...More to come on that obviously...  needs time to cook -

That's basically what's on the docket past any light overrunning top-off snows  for Saturday. 

This is all per multi-guidance and multi-member support/means 

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