8611Blizz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ajisai said: Yep, that's what I was thinking. SE MA got twice what Metro BOS got on that good snow about two weeks back. I drove south to IKEA today in Stoughton actually had much more snow OTG than the more rural areas just outside BOS proper. Yeah Boston is at 15.6" I think, and compared to many places nearby we are at a decent deficit that grows daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Yeah Boston is at 15.6" I think, and compared to many places nearby we are at a decent deficit that grows daily. The hole extends a ways north, as I'm only at 20.25"....actually, my defect is a little worse, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Don't want to say I told you ..but ... I told you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6z gfs is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don't want to say I told you ..but ... I told you I wouldn't get to cocky yet, alot can still change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z gfs is meh It sure is although fwiw (not much) NAM is actually stronger at 6Z vs 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z gfs is meh Who cares..Look at the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GEFS stronger vs op by a good amount at 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SE mass? You should be banned the rest of the winter. Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You should be banned the rest of the winter. Seriously Yeah... a flake hasn't fallen yet, and we're still 3 days away. I wouldn't be taking a victory lap yet It still is a thread the needle event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I think the S coast may even have P type issues for at least a portion of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEFS stronger vs op by a good amount at 6Z But much weaker than the 0z GEFS. With the volatility of this event, I still wouldn't feel comfortable getting excited until tomorrow once the first wave is sorted out. 0z runs show the potential, 6z GFS shows what happens with some relatively minor adjustments. Wait and see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: But much weaker than the 0z GEFS. With the volatility of this event, I still wouldn't feel comfortable getting excited until tomorrow once the first wave is sorted out. 0z runs show the potential, 6z GFS shows what happens with some relatively minor adjustments. Wait and see... Also. NAVGEM was a major hit at 0z, near whiff at 6Z. Hope for nothing strong tomorrow to keep this one more on the table. if you look at the individuals most have decent hits still on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Looks like Accuweather and WeatherUnderground have already drank the Cool aid re: imaginary coastal on Wed night and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think the S coast may even have P type issues for at least a portion of this storm Yup. it can only come so far nw but enuff to give the merritt crowd anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don't want to say I told you ..but ... I told you Lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Looks like Accuweather and WeatherUnderground have already drank the Cool aid re: imaginary coastal on Wed night and Thursday. while they are terrible in general, your post is even worse. look at trends in guidance, do some work yourself, and dont pay any attention to debbies who swing along with every gfs op run. its coming, could be nuisance advisory type stuff or an old skool coastal with 6"+ spread from phl to bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Fired up a thread for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 if this thing really was gonna be a big event region wide the 6z suite would not have backed off imo, we are pretty close to Thursday and anafrontal surprises like what happened last winter to give interior folks the only solid event of the season don't happen often just like sudden changes to deep cold and snow ala 2015 (rare events relatively speaking) this will likely be a few to perhaps several inches in the same old zones it always seems to be now when we don't have ptype issues to worry about i would remain remarkably skeptical from hfd to orh pts nw and pretty skeptical even down towards hvn to wst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 there's another signal emerging for D10-12 ...just sayin' somethin to maybe keep an eye on in future guidance - in fact, the teleconnectors almost wrought lucifer's hammer ... huge PNA rise that is collocated and or driven by (not sure which is chicken and egg or coincidental there) tropical forcing ...which either way means the PNA enters a more heavily integrated stable/robust mass field mode. Meanwhile, the NAO slips negative ... the temporal nexus is around D8 through 12 ...and the MJO ?! good lord... it's wave space forecast is in constructive interference with said PNA (hense the deep integration over the oceanic basin)... while at the same time, the magnitude is on par with a 25 pt historic comeback! it's a mad signal actually... Let's see how such a protestation by the teleconnectors and models fail now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12z Euro look to have another system similar to the Tues-Weds deal next monday and has had it for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Weeklies look stormy week 3 and 4...even suggest a cold reload into March. But, week 3 has a nice srn stream look. Cold is marginal, but I would think the chances are there, if it is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Long range looks great on the models. Possible winter storm mid month. AO , PNA and MJO look favorable Winter isn't over by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Didn't comment earlier, but most guidance has a light snow event for this Friday night/Saturday. Nothing huge, but its on pretty much ever model. Maybe a 1-3 type system if it holds. Nice little WAA stripe. Obviously something that can probably be ignored until mid-week or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yeah that is sort flying under the radar, but could be a nice light WAA snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's another signal emerging for D10-12 ...just sayin' somethin to maybe keep an eye on in future guidance - in fact, the teleconnectors almost wrought lucifer's hammer ... huge PNA rise that is collocated and or driven by (not sure which is chicken and egg or coincidental there) tropical forcing ...which either way means the PNA enters a more heavily integrated stable/robust mass field mode. Meanwhile, the NAO slips negative ... the temporal nexus is around D8 through 12 ...and the MJO ?! good lord... it's wave space forecast is in constructive interference with said PNA (hense the deep integration over the oceanic basin)... while at the same time, the magnitude is on par with a 25 pt historic comeback! it's a mad signal actually... Let's see how such a protestation by the teleconnectors and models fail now - Hecs pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is sort flying under the radar, but could be a nice light WAA snowfall. Yeah that's a nice 1-3/2-4" snowfall Fri nite into Sat Am..Then there appears to be a coastal which could be a mix depending on evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Almost looks like a toned down version of 2015 on the door step. Back loaded winter. Note I said toned down and not repeat. We'll have to see how it goes from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/2/2017 at 5:36 PM, Ginx snewx said: Too bad you failed geography. call me crazy or James in training but I kinda like where this is trending, Pete rePete? I definitely like where this headed Pete RePete of last Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 hours ago, nzucker said: Hecs pattern. It does look tantalizing doesn't it - I think the SPV elongation is tempting but ... it's just littttle too strong there. The wave timing is in sync but not so much the wave space there. The southern stream impulse could instantiate the western end of the SPV to come south/fragment off the total structure up there, and then the phasing commences... yadda yadda ... 1978 sort of deal. That's what led to Feb 5-7 1978 was a subsume phase.. An intermediate/southern stream impulse lowered the resistance south of a SPV fragmentation and down she came... assuming/bullying the wave space and the two absolutely partied their asses off east of Long Island. That evolution above is similar - possibly - if only in spirit. The details surrounding it don't look very comparable, however, so total analog is probably low. fascinating nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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