40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'd give it another 24-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just going off TT maps on 24intervals so we will agree to disagree. I'm overlying output. Pretty big step away vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I'm overlying output. Pretty big step away vs 0z. My only reservation is the GEFS.....and anecdotally speaking, I do not feel as though the EURO has outperformed the GFS within 84 hours this season....at least not when it has mattered......EURO has been too cold/progressive, ironically enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Yeah I'm simply arguing that the euro is less this run. 114 hours for 0z run has 996 system st closest pass. 102 hours this run has weaker system further away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My only reservation is the GEFS.....and anecdotally speaking, I do not feel as though the EURO has outperformed the GFS within 84 hours this season....at least not when it has mattered......EURO has been too cold/progressive, ironically enough. It is hard to bite on a threat with the euro so meh. As Jerry said... it appears the euro went in the opposite direction... which in my view... puts this threat on life support. I feel like the GFS is just as likely to lose it the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It is hard to bite on a threat with the euro so meh. As Jerry said... it appears the euro went in the opposite direction... which in my view... puts this threat on life support. I feel like the GFS is just as likely to lose it the next run. I don't know about life support. This is still d4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GEFS are still nice but I still see a lot of spread. Some are pretty close inland and some are way ots. Im giving it another 24-48 before I put it onlife support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I would agree the euro is less impressive than the 00z run. But certainly still close enough to watch given its grazing SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah I'm simply arguing that the euro is less this run. 114 hours for 0z run has 996 system st closest pass. 102 hours this run has weaker system further away. lol oops, when i toggle previous run me thinks its 0z but its really sat 12z. ok you win this time, but I will not forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'm fully on board for a good hit Thursday. That ensemble support is hard to ignore. We've seen these so many times over the years. Op runs see it, lose it and ensembles get stronger and closer every run . Then op runs pick it up again . Should be a solid event and best case is SNE biggest snowfall of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Winter 2017... 1 step forward.... 2 steps back. Hopefully the eps offer some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm fully on board for a good hit Thursday. That ensemble support is hard to ignore. We've seen these so many times over the years. Op runs see it, lose it and ensembles get stronger and closer every run . Then op runs pick it up again . Should be a solid event and best case is SNE biggest snowfall of winter Yeah... zero chance of 16" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Maybe ... only because nothing's impossible in the fercockta reality of weather. It would have to overcome synoptic -scaled theta-e stripping though... Tuesday's system gobble's up the moisture and whisks it away with it's exit. The best way to overcome, given the short duration between Tuesday's system and that Thursday deal, would be to have the later system's deep layer evolution slow down; essentially a hook-and-latter scenario that feeds in Atlantic moisture. But this pattern et al is intrinsically not likely to produce that sort of evolution. It's too progressive with too much velocity and not enough N-S curvature in the flow... My immediate guess (seein' as everyone asked .. ) is that system is either not real, or remains flat. What I find more interesting about the Euro run is that we go through this whole saga for Tuesday almost identically D 7 -8 on this run ...even has a similar follow-up "phantom" wave in much the same vein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe ... only because nothing's impossible in the fercockta reality of weather. It would have to overcome synoptic -scaled theta-e stripping though... Tuesday's system gobble's up the moisture and whisks it away with it's exit. The best way to overcome, given the short duration between Tuesday's system and that Thursday deal, would be to have the later system's deep layer evolution slow down; essentially a hook-and-latter scenario that feeds in Atlantic moisture. But this pattern et al is intrinsically not likely to produce that sort of evolution. It's too progressive with too much velocity and not enough N-S curvature in the flow... My immediate guess (seein' as everyone asked .. ) is that system is either not real, or remains flat. What I find more interesting about the Euro run is that we go through this whole saga for Tuesday almost identically D 7 -8 on this run ...even has a similar follow-up "phantom" wave in much the same vein. The winter has been very redundant. Many systems of seemingly identical ilk....unimpressive quantities of kitchen sink, to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would agree the euro is less impressive than the 00z run. But certainly still close enough to watch given its grazing SE areas. I def. would not call it life support at this point- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The winter has been very redundant. Many systems of seemingly identical ilk....unimpressive quantities of kitchen sink, to rain. This particular one Tuesday being the warmest of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The winter has been very redundant. Many systems of seemingly identical ilk....unimpressive quantities of kitchen sink, to rain. ... amusingly darkly poetic in a way there, Ray. It's like being in the throws of a stomach involved flu where waves of nausea are unrelenting and repeating, and you wonder if it will ever get better ... and it never does does does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... amusingly darkly poetic in a way there, Ray. It's like being in the throws of a stomach involved flu where waves of nausea are unrelenting and repeating, and you wonder if it will ever get better ... and it never does does does "And it never does"...just waves of mixed 'rhea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, White Rain said: I was using the pivotal weather maps. Not sure if they do as well? For reference the Kuchera method is better than the alternative (just applying one ratio to all frozen precip, or below freezing precip). It attempts to take into account warm layers aloft. But it can still overestimate snowfall, especially in areas of high QPF. Basically if you have a warm layer (> -2C) it uses the formula 12 + 2*(271.16 - MaxTempAloft). Yes we're using Kelvin. So say, we have a +1C warm nose that will produce sleet. We know that is typically a 3:1 or 2:1 ratio. But the Kuchera method will give you 12 + 2*(271.16-274.16) = 6:1. In a sleet bomb you'll still see snow overestimated (like our last big mixed system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm fully on board for a good hit Thursday. That ensemble support is hard to ignore. We've seen these so many times over the years. Op runs see it, lose it and ensembles get stronger and closer every run . Then op runs pick it up again . Should be a solid event and best case is SNE biggest snowfall of winter Still way to early imo to say either way. GEFS is a nice signal for sure, but this can very easily go the way that many of them have this season...which is down the tubes. It's a tough year this season to get anything really substantial it seems...I'd be more cautious so as not to be disappointed when it fades away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Still worthy to watch on the ensembles. Also, this has the look of a frontogenesis band on the NW side due to the nature of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still worthy to watch on the ensembles. Also, this has the look of a frontogenesis band on the NW side due to the nature of this system. Did the EPS trend better for us for Thursday's wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It seems like the MJO has a decent wave too the left of the chart for awhile beginning in a few days. Long range may be less grim than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still worthy to watch on the ensembles. Also, this has the look of a frontogenesis band on the NW side due to the nature of this system. Nice CJ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Did the EPS trend better for us for Thursday's wave? It's a brush, but worth watching in ern/SE areas. I have some doubts about how far it comes NW, but I'm not writing that off by any means. It's definitely a Scooter caution flag setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice CJ potential. Winds are more N-NNW so not even CJ worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 So the ensembles are basically the same as the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Seemed similar, but I'm mobile and it's difficult to compare. Maybe someone else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Winter over?lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winds are more N-NNW so not even CJ worthy. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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