40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: No. SE MA averages maybe a bit more than half of your climo. So in good years like 2012-13 they will double, if you double, it tends to be a blockbuster for all and they will triple. That doesn't mean they did better than you anymore than when you get 100 and RDU gets 30 RDU had a better year. Yes. Sorry....them near or greater than my amount is a shaft. You're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: He's mostly just grumpy that he got less snowfall than places in SE MA for 3 winters in a row. But whatever. It happens. Nobody who is more than 100 miles west, north, or southwest is going to feel remotely sorry...it's still been a good few years. Again. .. .I said surrounding areas. Not area 100 mi away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Isotherm, who for my money is the best of the best, is guardedly optimistic post February 15th. Don't fold em just yet. Tom is grade A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Sorry....them near or greater than my amount is a shaft. You're wrong. See Will's post on SD, then go back and bone up on your statistics notes from college/grad school. Them equal to you is not a shaft if you're 110 and so are they. You're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: See Will's post on SD, then go back and bone up on your statistics notes from college/grad school. Anyone who doesn't understand that areas that avg less beating areas that average more has nothing do with SD is beyond reason... and has likely been removed from academia much longer than I. I avg like 15-20" more than they do....SD doesn't account for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's why you don't use percentage. Use standard deviation. That normalizes all comparisons. 2 standard deviations for BOS might be 175-200% of climo while it is 150% for Ray. So the percentages won't be accurate in telling the story...it's almost an apples to oranges comparison To put it in extreme context, nobody would say ORH got shafted relative to climo if they got 110" (160% of climo) vs DCA getting 40" (260%) of climo. Those are both pretty similar frequency occurances...so they have very similar standard dev values...but if you only went on "percent of climo", you'd be under the impression that DCA had a much better winter than ORH Oh yeah exactly. I was just stating that when people talk about relative to normal they often look at "such and such a place got twice their normal when I only got 110%"... I mean I'll never see 150% of normal up here. It just isn't possible, IMO. In SNE though it's very possible and has happened a few times lately depending on the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone who doesn't understand that areas that avg less beating areas that average more has nothing do with SD is beyond reason... and has likely been removed from academia much longer than I. What are the differences in your normal snowfall between north of BOS and south of BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Oh yeah exactly. I was just stating that when people talk about relative to normal they often look at "such and such a place got twice their normal when I only got 110%"... I mean I'll never see 150% of normal up here. It just isn't possible, IMO. I think I said greater percentage of normal earlier, and that is wrong....yes. But se MA receiving more snow than I do is a shaft...not sure you can spin that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All based on a SSW that it's too late in season to help winter unless you like Mid Morch snow that melts next day I'll gladly take a March 3rd blizzard with deep drifting snows and howling winds...and not give an eff what happens the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: lol it's been melting the next day since this season began though...so what's the difference this year?? But I here you..I'm not banking on that strat warm either. omg lolol so true about the snow melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone who doesn't understand that areas that avg less beating areas that average more has nothing do with SD is beyond reason... and has likely been removed from academia much longer than I. I avg like 15-20" more than they do....SD doesn't account for that. SD would absolutely account for that. SE MA getting more snow than you is def a more anomalously good winter for them...but then again they had an excellent last two seasons. It happens. You had a more anomalous season in 2014-2015 than about 90% of New England. Sucks you didn't jack that year but you were pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: SD would absolutely account for that. SE MA getting more snow than you is def a more anomalously good winter for them...but then again they had an excellent last two seasons. It happens. You had a more anomalous season in 2014-2015 than about 90% of New England. Sucks you didn't jack that year but you were pretty close. That is what I mean. ...more anomalously good winter. I articulated poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Weaker primary, Better cold push south and flatter flow on the 18z GFS, Should be a better front ender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I'll gladly take a March 3rd blizzard with deep drifting snows and howling winds...and not give an eff what happens the next day. As would, I think, everybody here if they were being honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I hate to say it but with another miserable snow to rain event coming and another in line after that, I'm pretty much done with winter this year. Can't understand folks who prefer brown and wet to snow. It seems to drag on forever this way. Of course, as the New England weather gods might have it, we'll get hit with repeated heavy snowfalls from mid March to late April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what I mean. ...more anomalously good winter. I articulated poorly. But-you also had a great winter. You're right in that you articulated poorly because the way I read you were screwed in 2014-15. When everyone gets a record or near record you know there will be jack differences. But go back 10 years and my guess is you do well vs them on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 It snows where it wants to anonomously snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Sipprell just wrote this in AFD: Perhaps rambling, totally out of my mind, just trying to make sense of it all. This winter has not met initially though expectations by many in the meteorological community. Will convey greater confidence and forecast thinking in the details below. Main focus on Tuesday especially, will only touch on the remaining forecast thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Still looks like a net gain for many N of Pike, which is good....Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Still looks like a net gain for many N of Pike, which is good....Right? I don't know....not if it torches like some models have. It may not even snow much and could be a lot of sleet or ZR. So depends how far north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The AO going negative next week isn't going to have any effect on that Heh so sure? That was a HUGE change in one run on the GFS. There's going to be a lot of arctic air available early next week. Northern stream will predominate with this, and it's going to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, weathafella said: But-you also had a great winter. You're right in that you articulated poorly because the way I read you were screwed in 2014-15. When everyone gets a record or near record you know there will be jack differences. But go back 10 years and my guess is you do well vs them on average. Yes...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...my bad. That's gonna happen though. But there is a clear reason why you average more than they do and by a significant amount. You'll get yours eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 Still not fully convinced this recent eruption of moderate anomaly mid and upper stratospheric warm mass in the PV region, is of the downward propagating variety. The correlation on the AO requires that. Otherwise, warm or cold masses develop regularly, ...decaying at altitude in time, at irregular intervals, and consistent with all this .. do not appear to correlate with the Arctic Oscillation. That said, the present falling AO doesn't appear correlated because it precedes any such behavior - if ever it can be shown to actually be downwelling warm anomaly. The other aspect about the falling AO is that ... the blocking and cold doesn't have to situated on our side of the hemisphere. In fact, sometimes when the AO tanks...Eurasia cools first and then as the R-wave start realigning around the hemisphere N/A catches up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Looking at a few models... it's really tough to pick out any period after this upcoming cutter that may be favorable for winter weather. Just kind of looks like a crap evolution overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 Did anyone else notice this ... ? The 18z GFS now has the parent low out there in eastern Michigan barely succeeding 995 mbs ...where three days ago most models were in the mid 970s some where or thereabouts. Also, this run seemed to lag the polar high over Ontario just eeevver so slightly back west per time intervals ... and with a weakening (trend) low in the west ... starts to get a little iffy to me as to whether the warm air bullies in like that. Course, that relative to this run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Did anyone else notice this ... ? The 18z GFS now has the parent low out there in eastern Michigan barely succeeding 995 mbs ...where three days ago most models were in the mid 970s some where or thereabouts. Also, this run seemed to lag the polar high over Ontario just eeevver so slightly back west per time intervals ... and with a weakening (trend) low in the west ... starts to get a little iffy to me as to whether the warm air bullies in like that. Course, that relative to this run - I brought that up this morning, but in the spirit of this winter, the high has trouble building south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Did anyone else notice this ... ? The 18z GFS now has the parent low out there in eastern Michigan barely succeeding 995 mbs ...where three days ago most models were in the mid 970s some where or thereabouts. Also, this run seemed to lag the polar high over Ontario just eeevver so slightly back west per time intervals ... and with a weakening (trend) low in the west ... starts to get a little iffy to me as to whether the warm air bullies in like that. Course, that relative to this run - Nice little ZR event that run across N/NE MA. Nice cold tuck south Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I brought that up this morning, but in the spirit of this winter, the high has trouble building south. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Nice little ZR event that run across N/NE MA. Nice cold tuck south Tuesday night I'd much rather that than the 2" of front end slop.....get me a little tucky tuck ice deal, and my ears would perk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.