MJO812 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: DC missed out though last week to the SE. Yeah. I saw that. I was in Michigan for work the past two weeks. I saw a few light snows there at the end of the trip to satiate my snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: By the time that takes place though..and the resulting lag time...it'll be March lol. And we've been hearing about SSW and vortex splits that never happen...the vortex gets disturbed but then recovers and strengthens it seems. But appreciate the post...perhaps it incites just a tad of some type of hope..even if it seems like that never actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: By the time that takes place though..and the resulting lag time...it'll be March lol. And we've been hearing about SSW and vortex splits that never happen...the vortex gets disturbed but then recovers and strengthens it seems. But appreciate the post...perhaps it incites just a tad of some type of hope..even if it seems like that never actually happens. The op is always split happy. It does split at 50mb but then regains itself on the euro ensemble. This is the time of year where it can naturally take punches anyways so no surprise it's getting disturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The op is always split happy. It does split at 50mb but then regains itself on the euro ensemble. This is the time of year where it can naturally take punches anyways so no surprise it's getting disturbed. Right, and Exactly my point...which in terms of sensible weather..means nothing for us. The whole SSW and vortex split idea..is a joke lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Right, and Exactly my point...which in terms of sensible weather..means nothing for us. The whole SSW and vortex split idea..is a joke lately. Huh? SSW is happening, Europe and Asia about to go into the freezer once again for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Right, and Exactly my point...which in terms of sensible weather..means nothing for us. The whole SSW and vortex split idea..is a joke lately. It's not that it's a joke...I just think people jump all over it way too much and too quickly. Almost as bad as the stupid NPAC warm pool. If we got real good blocking it would help us for sure. I guess it's just something to watch. I'm hoping we can grab something after Tuesday's storm when it cools off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Maybe we sneak something in over the next few weeks... I definitely wouldn't count on it though. Looks pretty meh overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That event stunk here, too. Relative to the ambient environs.....I know some people are going to misinterpret this and rip my head off.....but in this respect I have been in a slump for several years. This year has certainly not reversed that- How was 2015 for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Huh? SSW is happening, Europe and Asia about to go into the freezer once again for the foreseeable future. I mean in sensible weather for us..who gives a crap what's happening in Europe! Are we seeing anything like that here...??? No we are not. And like Scott said..people seem to jump on that like it's some magic pill...it isn't, at least not here in the northeast part of North America/USA lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How was 2015 for you? several being 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mean in sensible weather for us..who gives a crap what's happening in Europe! Are we seeing anything like that here...??? No we are not. And like Scott said..people seem to jump on that like it's some magic pill...it isn't, at least not here in the northeast part of North America/USA lately. Terrible post, SSW is just a displacement of the polar vortex from over the North Pole. It just a small piece of the puzzle in terms of sensible weather over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Terrible post, SSW is just a displacement of the polar vortex from over the North Pole. It just a small piece of the puzzle in terms of sensible weather over the Northeast. I wouldn't call it a classic SSW either. Not when its pegged to regain itself and it does not show up at 10mb. Anywayw we'll see what happens after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: several being 1.7 Yeah but scooter beat him in 2015 so it doesn't count. Lol. Gotta take Rays jackpot fetish into account ....it's very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, White Rain said: GFS looks like .25"+ of ice for ORH county and NAM shows about 3" of snow before change over. Either way it should all be melted by the end of the storm. This winter is getting old. We desperately need a surprise snow storm to show up before seasons end. This season gets a solid D for retention and that's being generous. There could def be a good 6-8 hour icing period over ORH hills. We'll see though. We've def gotten unlucky with the Quebec highs this season. When we had a great one, the airmass stunk...and when we have good air masses, they are not holding firm and trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 No reason to get invested. Just accept the crappy hand winter dealt us all and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 The parent low is so much weaker too. What a pissah. Of course that weakens and the high doesn't build down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The parent low is so much weaker too. What a pissah. Of course that weakens and the high doesn't build down. Case where having some semblance of a -NAO would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Bad luck, Lot of events didn't pan out, Another nickel dime upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 next wknd bears to watch imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Bad luck, Lot of events didn't pan out, Another nickel dime upcoming. Jeffafafa how about a half dollar silver coin? with 6 inches of snow? per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Jeff, Genny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 GGEM is coming in pretty flat. A lot more CAD and probably better snow on the overrunning portion. Maybe euro will throw a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah this needs work south of the Route 2 MA and especially south of the Pike corridor but this does not look like a rain to Maine scenario as currently modeled. Usually interior Maine does pretty well in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Yeah this needs work south of the Route 2 MA and especially south of the Pike corridor but this does not look like a rain to Maine scenario as currently modeled. Usually interior Maine does pretty well in these situations. well rain to Maine can include Biddeford where it rains sometimes even when we are snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: well rain to Maine can include Biddeford where it rains sometimes even when we are snowing Yes but with a high to the NE that shouldn't occur in this storm. I believe some were asserting that the modeling was heading in that direction but I'm not convinced yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Terrible post, SSW is just a displacement of the polar vortex from over the North Pole. It just a small piece of the puzzle in terms of sensible weather over the Northeast. Not a terrible post at all. Perhaps I didn't explain my position well enough? I know precisely what a SSW event is. And I certainly realize it's just one piece of the puzzle..and that is what I meant when I said that some run to it like it's the holy grail, and it's not at all. Sure it can help..but lately it hasn't been able to truly split(as Scott explained it-at least not at 10mbs) and help us out. Europe and Asia the last few years seem to be benefiting more than us in that regard. When i I see some positive results due to its splitting (and splitting up where it seems to really be important at 10mb) on this side of the globe..I'll gladly acknowledge it. Until then it's just another piece that as of late doesn't seem to materialize to well(like Atlantic blocking that never seems to happen). That is more my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The parent low is so much weaker too. What a pissah. Of course that weakens and the high doesn't build down. This event died once the initial southern overrunning inducing wave died on the models which has been a good 2 days now. The setup looked funny to me 3-4 days ago when the GFS was insisting the southern wave would outrun the bigger deeper northern low. I figured eventually we would see more just one low and we sort of have that now. I guess the high also isn't building quite as far south either as was shown 72-96 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This event died once the initial southern overrunning inducing wave died on the models which has been a good 2 days now. The setup looked funny to me 3-4 days ago when the GFS was insisting the southern wave would outrun the bigger deeper northern low. I figured eventually we would see more just one low and we sort of have that now. I guess the high also isn't building quite as far south either as was shown 72-96 hours ago The high pressure is absolutely not as good as it was a few days ago. That's the biggest change for New England's weather. That's been kind of a theme this winter when we have a good antecedent airmass....the highs are not holding well. Yet, when we have a putrid airmass like on January 17-18, the high trended better. Just been that kind of season though. But as we've seen in many seasons previously, the past does not predict the future within the same winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Euro with more CAD this run. Gonna have to watch for a tuck too in eastern areas. Little meso low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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